Maybe, apart from Brian Simpson, none of here is good at advanced mathematics. I mean, we can add up and multiple and do business maths, and some of us know some computing stuff, but maybe not to the coding level, but enough to get us by. Probably even Brian could not solve an ordinary differential equation, let alone partial differential equation using the Taylor power series. (I Googled this, so don’t be impressed.)
Thus, the report, An Audit of the Creation and Content of the HadCRUT4 Temperature Dataset, by John McLean, PhD October 2018, is a bit lost on me. But, it shows real problems with the way that the climate change folk work things out. I was impressed by the real fallibility of the data sets:
“As far as can be ascertained, this is the first audit of the HadCRUT4 dataset, the main temperature dataset used in climate assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Governments and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) rely heavily on the IPCC reports so ultimately the temperature data needs to be accurate and reliable. This audit shows that it is neither of those things. More than 70 issues are identified, covering the entire process from the measurement of temperatures to the dataset’s creation, to data derived from it (such as averages) and to its eventual publication. The findings (shown in consolidated form Appendix 6) even include simple issues of obviously erroneous data, glossed-over sparsity of data, significant but questionable assumptions and temperature data that has been incorrectly adjusted in a way that exaggerates warming. It finds, for example, an observation station reporting average monthly temperatures above 80°C, two instances of a station in the Caribbean reporting December average temperatures of 0°C and a Romanian station reporting a September average temperature of -45°C when the typical average in that month is 10°C. On top of that, some ships that measured sea temperatures reported their locations as more than 80km inland. It appears that the suppliers of the land and sea temperature data failed to check for basic errors and the people who create the HadCRUT dataset didn’t find them and raise questions either.