According to former CDC Director Robert Redfield, the most likely future pandemic is going to be genetically engineered bird flu, which by some means, the virus jumps, or more likely is made to jump, to infect humans. But, the way of creating such a virus has already been published by US NIH-funded scientists way back in 2012, which was a recipe for a virus with a mortality rate from 5 to 50 percent, with the actual figure probably at the higher range. The probability of some natural mutation occurring, producing this kill virus, is low, but according to Redfield, "I think it's a miracle that no one's used that yet," "But I do think we're at high risk for laboratory-created bird flu that will have high pathogenicity for man," given the "highly inadequate" biosecurity of scores of the labs. The "probability of a spillover event" from a lab "is very, very high," he said, "and I suspect that in the next decade we will have, unfortunately, a major pandemic as a consequence of either gain-of-function research or bioterrorism."
"And this is why I think we need to really look seriously about not only having a moratorium in our own country, but actually having a global moratorium on gain-of-function research until society can decide: Should it really be done? Is the benefit there? And if they decide the benefit's there, then how do you do it in a safe, responsible and effective way?"