At this stage we do not know if the Middle East conflict will develop into a full-on regional war, or even World War III. What we do know is that 31 percent of the world’s oil comes from the Middle East, and continued conflict will push up the price of oil. The World Bank has said that if the conflict is protracted “In a ‘large disruption’ scenario – comparable to the Arab oil embargo of 1973 – the global oil supply would shrink by six million to eight million barrels per day and prices could go up by 56 per cent to 75 per cent, or $140 (£115.51) to $157 (£129.53) a barrel, according to the report.
Estimates vary, and are uncertain as the future extent of the conflict is presently unpredictable, but oil could reach US $ 300 a barrel. That would be catastrophic for food production, transport, and almost very aspect of the modern economy. There is already a food price crisis across the West, including in Australia, but we have perhaps not seen anything yet.