Xi Says China’s Rise Is “Unstoppable.” History Says Otherwise, By Paul Walker
When Chinese leader Xi Jinping proclaims that China's ascent to global supremacy is "unstoppable," he's not merely boasting. He's crafting a narrative of inevitability, a signal to the United States, Europe, India, and the rest of the world to accept a Chinese-led global order as a fait accompli. This rhetoric is designed to project confidence, deter adversaries, and rally domestic support. Yet, history offers a stark counterpoint: no empire, no matter how formidable, is truly unstoppable. From Rome to the British Empire, from the Soviet Union to the once-unassailable American century, every great power has faced its limits. China, despite its remarkable rise, is no exception.
The Myth of Unstoppable Empires
The notion of an "unstoppable" rise is seductive but flawed. History is littered with examples of powers that seemed invincible, only to falter under the weight of their own vulnerabilities or external pressures. Rome's legions couldn't save it from internal decay and overextension. The British Empire, which once spanned a quarter of the globe, crumbled under economic strain and colonial resistance. The Soviet Union, a superpower that rivalled the U.S., collapsed not from military defeat but from economic stagnation, political rigidity, and miscalculations. Even the United States, whose post-World War II dominance seemed unassailable, has faced humbling setbacks that reveal the fragility beneath its power.
America's Fragile Dominance
For much of the 20th century, the United States appeared to embody permanence. Its industrial might, unmatched military, and global institutions like the United Nations and Bretton Woods system were designed to cement its influence. The American century felt like it would last forever.
Yet, cracks emerged. The Vietnam War exposed the limits of U.S. military power and eroded public trust. The 1970s brought oil shocks, stagflation, and economic malaise. Deindustrialisation hollowed out the Rust Belt, leaving communities in decline. The 9/11 attacks and subsequent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan revealed the costs of overreach, draining trillions of dollars and exposing strategic missteps. Today, political polarisation and institutional dysfunction threaten the very democracy that underpins America's global image. The "unstoppable" America of the mid-20th century has proven to be anything but.
China's Hidden Vulnerabilities
China's rise is undeniable, its GDP growth, infrastructure, and global influence are staggering. Yet, beneath the surface of Xi's confident rhetoric lie structural weaknesses that could derail its trajectory. These vulnerabilities are not mere hiccups; they are systemic challenges that history suggests are difficult to overcome.
Demographic Decline
China's population is shrinking at an alarming rate. Decades of the one-child policy, combined with low birth rates and an aging workforce, have created a demographic crisis. By 2035, China's working-age population is projected to decline by nearly 20%, according to United Nations estimates. The "world's factory" relies on a steady supply of young workers, but this engine is sputtering. An aging society strains pension systems, healthcare, and economic dynamism, as Japan's experience has shown. Unlike Japan, China faces this challenge while still a middle-income country, limiting its resources to cushion the blow.
Economic Fragility
China's economic miracle has been fuelled by massive borrowing, particularly in real estate, which accounts for roughly 30% of its GDP. The collapse of developers like Evergrande and the proliferation of "ghost cities," empty urban projects built on speculative debt, signal deeper issues. Local government debt exceeds $9 trillion, according to some estimates, and Beijing's efforts to stabilise the economy often involve kicking the can down the road. While China's central planning allows for short-term fixes, the long-term risks of a debt-driven model are stark, as seen in Japan's lost decades or the 2008 global financial crisis.
Technological Dependence
China's ambition to lead in AI, semiconductors, and biotechnology is clear, with billions invested in these sectors. Yet, it remains heavily reliant on foreign technology, particularly in semiconductors, where U.S. and allied sanctions have exposed vulnerabilities. The U.S. CHIPS Act and export controls have restricted China's access to cutting-edge chips and manufacturing equipment. While China is racing to close the gap, building a self-sufficient tech ecosystem is a decades-long endeavor, and global supply chains remain a choke point.
Political Rigidity
Xi's consolidation of power has eliminated dissent but also stifled feedback. Centralised control, while projecting strength, risks missteps by suppressing alternative viewpoints. Historical examples, such as the Soviet Union's inability to adapt to economic realities or Mao's disastrous Great Leap Forward, show how authoritarian systems can falter when leaders become insulated from reality. Xi's anti-corruption purges and crackdowns on private enterprise, like the tech sector, have chilled innovation and spooked investors, raising questions about long-term adaptability.
Global Backlash
China's global ambitions, from the Belt and Road Initiative to its military buildup in the South China Sea, have sparked resentment as much as admiration. Many Belt and Road projects have saddled developing nations with unsustainable debt, fostering accusations of "debt-trap diplomacy." Territorial disputes in the South China Sea and tensions with India, Japan, and Australia, have pushed neighbours toward stronger U.S. alliances, such as the Quad and AUKUS. The more assertive China becomes, the more it galvanises coalitions to counterbalance its influence.
The Perils of Declaring "Inevitability"
Proclaiming an "unstoppable" rise is a double-edged sword. It can inspire confidence, but it also breeds complacency and hubris. Leaders who buy into their own mythology often overlook weaknesses, misjudge rivals, and overplay their hand. The Soviet Union's collapse is a case study: its leaders believed their system was unassailable, yet internal contradictions, economic stagnation, ethnic tensions, and political repression, unravelled it. China's narrative of inevitability risks a similar trap, blinding it to vulnerabilities, while motivating adversaries to exploit them.
Moreover, the rhetoric of inevitability alienates potential partners. By framing its rise as a zero-sum game, China invites resistance from nations that might otherwise seek cooperation. The U.S., despite its own challenges, retains a network of allies and soft power that China struggles to match. Cultural exports, global institutions, and a history of alliance-building give the U.S. an edge that China's transactional diplomacy has yet to replicate.
What History Teaches
History's lesson is clear: no empire is eternal. Great powers rise and fall not because of destiny but because of circumstances, economic, social, political, and geopolitical. Rome fell to internal decay and external pressures. Britain's empire succumbed to economic exhaustion and nationalist movements. The Soviet Union imploded under its own weight. Even the U.S., still the world's preeminent power, grapples with decline narratives as it navigates a multipolar world.
China may well overtake the U.S. in certain domains, manufacturing output, trade volume, or even military capabilities in specific theatres. Its infrastructure and technological advancements are formidable. But "unstoppable"? That's a myth, not a strategy. Like all great powers, China's trajectory depends on how it manages its weaknesses and responds to unforeseen challenges.
Xi's vision of a Chinese-led world order is not guaranteed. While China's achievements are impressive, its vulnerabilities are equally significant. Demographics, debt, technological gaps, political rigidity, and global pushback all pose risks that no amount of rhetoric can erase. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies, despite their own struggles, retain the ability to adapt, innovate, and counterbalance China's rise.
The only constant in geopolitics is change. China's ascent is remarkable, but it is not inexorable. History favours the adaptable, not the inevitable.
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