Will One of the World’s Largest Supervolcanoes Erupt Soon and End the World as We Know It? (Spoiler Alert: Possible but Not Probable) By Brian Simpson and Richard Miller (Londonistan)

There's a quiet unease that comes with living in the shadow of a sleeping giant, especially when that giant begins to stir. Campi Flegrei, nestled just west of Naples, is one of those giants. A name that doesn't often make the headlines unless it grumbles, which it's been doing more often lately.

The signs are there for those who are watching. Small earthquakes rattle the towns, tremors that don't always break dishes but do unsettle the nerves. The ground in some areas is rising, pushed up by subterranean pressures that none of the locals can see. This phenomenon, called bradyseism, has been happening on and off for decades, but recent months have seen it intensify. In March of this year, a magnitude 4.4 quake near Pozzuoli reminded the region just how unstable things are beneath their feet.

The scientific community is paying close attention. Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) has been monitoring Campi Flegrei closely, and while they're careful not to raise alarm unnecessarily, they also aren't offering guarantees. As of now, they insist that there's no clear evidence of an imminent eruption. But "not imminent" isn't the same as "won't happen." That's the catch when you live near a supervolcano, when it does erupt, it doesn't ask if you're ready.

Campi Flegrei isn't like Mount Vesuvius, which sits nearby and is more famous thanks to the tragedy of Pompeii. No, this one is quieter, older, and vastly more dangerous if it truly awakens. A true eruption of Campi Flegrei would not be a local event. It would be a European event, and possibly even a global one.

The worst-case scenario is sobering. An eruption of the scale this caldera is capable of could blanket Naples and the surrounding region in ash, sending pyroclastic flows racing through cities and towns, and triggering tsunamis that would crash into nearby coasts. Air travel across Europe would be grounded, crops could fail due to ash contamination and cooler temperatures, and millions of people might be displaced. Some studies even warn of a hundred-foot tsunami sweeping through the Bay of Naples if the eruption hits the right geological structures under the sea.

But it's also important to stay grounded in what's likely. Most experts agree that if Campi Flegrei erupts at all, it's more likely to be a moderate eruption, not the cataclysmic kind seen 39,000 years ago when it last blew on a scale we now call "super." Back then, it may have had impacts on early human populations across Europe and Asia, possibly even altering the climate. These days, with dense urban populations and modern infrastructure, even a moderate eruption could be devastating. But total annihilation? That's unlikely.

Authorities are not asleep at the wheel. In Naples and nearby towns like Pozzuoli and Bacoli, evacuation plans have been quietly updated. Emergency drills are conducted. Scientists continue their measurements and models. But for the average person, the situation remains in a strange limbo, not urgent enough to flee, not calm enough to forget.

And so life continues. Children still walk to school past cracked old churches and faded murals of saints. People gather in cafés, argue over football, hang out their laundry to dry in the spring sun. They all live with a certain amount of denial, which is probably necessary. After all, how does one plan a life under a volcano that might, or might not, erupt tomorrow or in a thousand years?

For those of us watching from afar, the story of Campi Flegrei is a reminder of how small we are in the face of the Earth's deep rhythms. Human beings are clever, but we are not in charge. We live on the surface of something far older and more powerful than any of us. And sometimes, that ancient power shifts, stretches, and sighs beneath us.

When it does, it's wise to pay attention, but just as wise not to panic. Volcanology is not prophecy. It's a cautious science, and rightly so. For now, Campi Flegrei sleeps, lightly perhaps, with one eye open, but still asleep. Let's hope it stays that way for a good while yet!

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/is-one-of-the-worlds-largest-supervolcanoes