Victoria's Woke Reckoning: How the "Treaty" Will Accelerate the State's Financial Meltdown, By Paul Walker

Victoria, once the jewel of Australian prosperity, is teetering on the brink of fiscal catastrophe — a debt bomb primed to explode under the weight of reckless spending, unfunded megaprojects, and now a race-based "treaty" that mocks the 2023 referendum's cry for equality. With net debt ballooning to $150.9 billion in 2024-25 (up $17.6 billion in a single year) and interest payments projected to devour $36 billion over four years, enough to fund the entire first stage of the Suburban Rail Loop, the state's AA credit rating hangs by a thread. Premier Jacinta Allan's Labor government, fresh off a superficial budget "improvement" courtesy of a $7.5 billion federal GST windfall, is doubling down on divisive ideology with the Statewide Treaty Bill 2025. This "Voice on steroids" won't just entrench racial inequality; it'll drain $70 million annually (escalating 2.5% yearly) from a budget already haemorrhaging under non-market jobs, infrastructure overruns, and mass immigration pressures. As rating agencies warn of downgrades and economists decry "good luck over sound management," Victoria's woke elite is steering straight into bankruptcy, proving once again that ideology trumps arithmetic.

The Debt Spiral: A State Addicted to Borrowing

Victoria's finances are a house of cards built on federal handouts and hubris. The 2024-25 Financial Report boasts a trimmed operating deficit of $2.6 billion (down from $4.2 billion), but that's smoke and mirrors: Commonwealth grants surged 13% to $47 billion, juiced by GST boosts, energy relief pass-throughs, and delayed preschool funding. Without this "bailout," the hole would gape wider. Net debt hit $150.9 billion, $4.7 billion below May forecasts, sure, but still the nation's highest per capita, at 22-25% of gross state product (GSP). Spending? Up $6.7 billion to $104 billion, locked into $213 billion in capital works.

The villains? Megaprojects like the $35-200 billion Suburban Rail Loop (SRL), mostly unfunded and tunnelling next year, alongside blowouts in Metro Tunnel (+$837 million to $13.48 billion), West Gate Tunnel (+$4 billion, three years late), and North East Link (+$10 billion to $26.1 billion). S&P Global, Moody's, and Fitch have reaffirmed AA but issued stark warnings: Rein in costs, or face AA- (or worse), spiking interest to $10.6 billion annually by 2029. Treasurer Jaclyn Symes touts surpluses from 2025-26, but experts like David Hayward dismiss it as "luck," not strategy, wages up, productivity flat, and non-market jobs (highest in Australia) bloating the payroll.

Add mass immigration … Victoria absorbs 100,000+ net migrants yearly, per national 500,000 totals, and the strain intensifies: Housing rents up 15%, hospitals overwhelmed, wages stagnant. This globalist influx, easing visas for Indians and Nepalis, clashes with Closing the Gap failures: Indigenous child removals and incarceration rates soaring. As one X user fumed, Labor's "One Brain Cell" policies have saddled generations with debt, now capped by an "Aboriginal Treaty" farce.

The Treaty Bombshell: Racial Division Meets Fiscal Suicide

Enter the Statewide Treaty Bill 2025, rammed through on the Voice referendum's second anniversary, despite 54.15% of Victorians (59% in Allan's Bendigo electorate) rejecting racial carve-outs. This 200+ page monster births Gellung Warl, a "permanent" First Peoples' Assembly with veto-like powers: Ministers must consult it pre-legislation, face summons for grilling, and justify ignores as "racist." It crafts "substantive rules" as de facto laws, different for Indigenous Victorians, covering curricula, placenames, and cultural zones that could lock out skiing or fishing. Only Indigenous voters (three+ years residency) elect members, granting them double say while all fund it, $3 million startup this year, ballooning to $70 million annually by 2027, plus 2.5% hikes, totalling $280 million by decade's end.

Polls confirm the referendum's verdict: 70% of "No" voters (IPA-Advance, 3,500 surveyed) and 66.1% (ANU, 4,200) feared division, not details. Allan dodges: "Not constitutional!" But it's the principle, equality over ancestry, that stings. As The Australian's Robert Gottliebsen warns, this makes Victoria "ungovernable," delving into every bill, bloating bureaucracy with perks like subsidies and tax breaks for a "privileged group." Rating agencies, oblivious to the fine print, could slash AA upon discovery, turbocharging interest costs.

This isn't empowerment; it's a fiscal noose amid immigration-fuelled strain. Elders must thunder against the globalist Ponzi: Newcomers "recolonise" by proxy, pricing out sacred sites and services. Navajo and Cherokee prophecies of 2025's "point of no return" echo here, globalisation disrupts Lore faster than any ballot. X users rage: Renaming cities for "treaty" could cost billions, hitting individuals too. Why pursue this when Victorians crave unity?

The Perfect Storm: Woke Elite vs. Reality

Allan's crew, highest-taxed state, now layering bureaucracy, ignores the referendum like the Voice's national 60% "No." Non-market jobs (state's highest reliance) swell payrolls; SRL and treaty siphon billions. Forward estimates? Debt to $194 billion by 2029, interest at 9% of revenue. IPA ranks Victoria worst for financial management; S&P slams "spend all windfalls."

Elders, now's the hour: Blast mass migration as cultural erasure, demand caps for sovereignty. Tie treaty to fiscal sanity, subsidies for healing, not elite virtue-signalling. Until Labor learns equality means one wallet, one vote, Victoria's bankruptcy is self-inflicted. Voters, revolt before the bill comes due.

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2025/10/victoria-is-headed-toward-a-financial-crisis/