Update on the Voice By James Reed
Here is the latest update on the Voice referendum and it is good news. It looks like, if things continue as they are, the Voice will be defeated. It is popular with the young, which is a good reason why the voting age should never have been set for teenagers. Still, if the pressure is kept up, that may not matter. The main issue is the impact social media is going to have, but again, that is a largely youth thing. But, the campaigning should not slacken off given these results as these nasty things tend to bop up at the end, like plastic waste pushed underwater.
“Support for a constitutionally enshrined Indigenous voice has fallen below 50 per cent in every state and is ahead of the no vote in only two, with the referendum now split heavily between age, education and state.
An exclusive Newspoll demographic analysis shows the yes case so far failing to secure an absolute majority in any state.
While the race was still close, the referendum based on current attitudes would fail to meet both requirements of a referendum.
The results stand in stark contrast to an analysis in April, before the final wording of the referendum was settled, which showed majority support in every state but Queensland.
The fresh analysis shows the yes vote nationally at 43 per cent when averaged over Newspoll surveys between May and July this year, with the no vote at 46 per cent.
The April results, covering the three months from February show overall support at 54 per cent compared to 38 per cent for the no vote.
The yes case now leads in only NSW and South Australia, is tied with a no vote in Victoria and trails in Western Australia, Queensland and Tasmania.
The comprehensive demographic breakdown also reveals stark divisions within the community based on age and education.
Those most likely to support the voice were higher-income earners, the university educated, renters and the young.
Those firmly opposed include voters with no tertiary education, retirees, mortgagees and people who owned their home outright.
The fresh analysis shows the demographic hurdles the yes campaign must overcome with the federal government embroiled in a new political argument over its ambitions to follow the voice with treaty and truth-telling, fulfilling the three pillars of the Uluru Statement.
For the referendum to succeed, a national majority in the affirmative and a majority of the six states is required.
The government has confirmed it will be held sometime between October and December, with an announcement on the dates expected within the next few weeks.”
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