There Will be a White Minority Population in Australia within 10 Years from Now, 2030-2035, Given Present Mass Immigration and Demographic Trends! By Professor X

Australia's demographic landscape has undergone significant transformation over the past century, with a notable decline in the proportion of its population identifying with European ancestry, commonly referred to as white Australians. This shift, driven by evolving migration patterns, differential fertility rates, and historical policy changes, reflects the nation's growing cultural/ethno-racial diversity. Drawing on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) 2021 Census and related demographic studies, this blog essay examines the decline in the share of white Australians, focusing on trends in ancestry, country of birth, and migration without delving into social or political implications.

In the early 20th century, Australia's population was predominantly of European descent, a legacy of British colonisation and the restrictive White Australia policy, enacted in 1901. This policy limited non-European immigration, ensuring that by 1947, approximately 90% of Australians had European ancestry, primarily English, Irish, and Scottish. The ABS notes that in 1891, 32% of the population was born overseas, mostly in the United Kingdom, reinforcing a homogenous Anglo-Celtic identity. At that time, the non-European population, including Asians and Pacific Islanders, was minimal, constituting less than 2% of the total, while Indigenous Australians, estimated at 300,000 to 2.4 million before 1788, had declined sharply due to disease, displacement, and violence, comprising under 1% by 1901.

The dismantling of the White Australia policy in the 1960s and 1970s marked a turning point. Multiculturalism policies, introduced by the Whitlam government in 1973, opened Australia to immigration from Asia, the Middle East, and other regions, diversifying the population. By the 2016 Census, the proportion of Australians with European ancestry had fallen to an estimated 76%, according to the Australian Human Rights Commission, and a 2021 media diversity study estimated it at 72%. These figures contrast with the mid-20th century's near-90% European composition, highlighting a steady decline in the white population's share.

The 2021 Census provides detailed insights into this trend. Ancestry data, self-reported by respondents who could nominate up to two ancestries, show that English (33%), Australian (29.9%), Irish (9.5%), and Scottish (8.6%) ancestries—predominantly associated with white Australians—collectively account for a significant but shrinking portion of the population. Other European ancestries, such as Italian (4.3%), German (4%), and Greek (1.7%), further contribute to the European share, estimated at 76% in 2021. However, non-European ancestries are rising, with Chinese (5.5%), Indian (3.1%), and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (3.2%) ancestries growing. The "Australian" ancestry category, while often Anglo-Celtic, increasingly includes diverse backgrounds, complicating precise estimates of white Australians but underscoring the relative decline of European heritage.

Country of birth data further illustrates the shift. In 2021, 70.2% of Australia's 25.4 million residents were born in Australia, down from 76.8% in 2011. Among the overseas-born, who comprised 29.8% of the population, traditional European source countries like England (3.7%) and Italy (0.7%) have been overtaken by Asian countries, including India (2.6%), China (2.2%), and the Philippines (1.2%). Between 2016 and 2021, India saw the largest increase in migrant numbers, adding 220,000 people, while European-born populations, such as those from Italy and Greece, declined due to aging and lower migration rates. The median age of Italian-born Australians in 2021 was 72, reflecting post-World War II migration waves, whereas newer migrant groups from Asia are younger, with a median age of 43 for the overseas-born overall in 2024.

Migration trends are a primary driver of this demographic change. Since the 1970s, Asia has become Australia's leading source of migrants, surpassing Europe by 2016. The ABS reports that 27.1% of migrants arriving between 2006 and 2021 were born in China or India, fuelled by skilled migration and international student programs. By June 2024, 31.5% of Australia's 27.2 million residents were born overseas, the highest proportion since 1893, with England, India, China, and New Zealand as the top countries of birth. This sustained influx of non-European migrants has reduced the relative share of white Australians, as overseas-born populations grow faster than the Australian-born, whose European ancestry is diluting over generations.

Fertility and aging also contribute. The total fertility rate for Australia was 1.50 births per woman in 2023, below replacement levels, with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women at 2.17, sustaining higher growth rates. The European-ancestry population, particularly older cohorts like Italian and Greek migrants, faces higher mortality and lower birth rates. The ABS notes a 25% increase in the Indigenous population from 2016 to 2021, reaching 3.2%, while European-ancestry groups grow more slowly. Additionally, over half of Australians in 2021 were first- or second-generation migrants, meaning many with "Australian" ancestry have one non-European parent, further diversifying the population. Thus race-mixing further lowers the number of white Australians.

Language use reflects this diversification. In 2021, 72% of Australians spoke only English at home, down from 76.8% in 2011. Mandarin (2.7%), Arabic (1.4%), and Vietnamese (1.3%) are among the top non-English languages, indicating growing non-European cultural influence. The decline in English-only households aligns with the increasing proportion of non-European ancestries and overseas-born residents.

Historically, Australia's population was shaped by policies prioritising white immigration, peaking at 90% European ancestry in 1947. The shift since the 1970s, driven by multicultural migration, has steadily reduced this share to approximately 72–76% by 2021. While white Australians remain the majority, just, but their proportion continues to decline as non-European migration, higher Indigenous growth, and intergenerational mixing reshape the nation's demographic profile. The ABS's decision to focus on ancestry rather than ethnicity in the 2026 Census acknowledges the complexity of these trends, capturing a population increasingly defined by diverse heritages.

So, when do white Australians become a statistical minority in Australia? My educated guess based upon the above demographic considerations is this will happen much faster than the coming of a white minority in the US and Europe, particularly the UK. There will be a white minority population in Australia within 10 years from now, 2030-2035, given mass immigration and demographic trends. Let that sink in. From then, as shown by the Chinese influence at the last election which swung a number of seats for Labor, a big push for mass Chinese immigration the likes of which we have not seen will occur with their political clout. Expect the end of Australia as we know it and the creation of a CCP colony within some decades. Whites in Australia will slowly die out, given mass immigration and below replacement level birth rates. It is just statistics. Perhaps conservatives need to start thinking a bit more about the reality of race. Other races certainly do. All other issues will fall away.

Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2021 Census; Australian Human Rights Commission, 2016; Statista, 2024; WorldAtlas, 2024.