The Vaccines-Autism Hypothesis: Why It Deserves Serious Scrutiny, Not Summary Dismissal, By Mrs Vera West and Mrs (Dr) Abigail Knight (Florida)

Few topics in the realm of public health debates, ignite as much passion, and division, as the potential link between vaccines and autism spectrum disorder (ASD). For over two decades, the mainstream narrative has been unequivocal: No connection exists, backed by dozens of large-scale studies and endorsements from bodies like the CDC and WHO. Yet, persistent claims from researchers, whistleblowers, and parent surveys suggest signals that warrant deeper investigation. Steve Kirsch's September 28, 2025, Substack post reignites this fire, citing a 1999 CDC Vaccine Safety Datalink (VSD) study showing an odds ratio (OR) of 11.35 for autism after high mercury exposure from thimerosal-containing vaccines at one month, alongside whistleblower allegations and unvaxxed-vs-vaxxed comparisons. Critics decry these as debunked or cherry-picked, but here's the crux: Even if unproven, the hypothesis merits rigorous, transparent inquiry. Dismissing it outright stifles science, erodes trust, and risks overlooking rare vulnerabilities.

1. Historical Signals from CDC Studies: Raw Data That "Wouldn't Go Away"

The foundation of Kirsch's argument traces to the CDC's own research in the late 1990s, when thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative in multi-dose vaccines, drew scrutiny amid rising autism diagnoses. In 1999, CDC epidemiologist Thomas Verstraeten analysed VSD data from over 124,000 infants born 1992-1999 across two HMOs. Phase I screened for neurodevelopmental outcomes, revealing stark associations: An OR of 11.35 for autism after >25 μg mercury exposure at one month, comparable to smoking's 20-fold lung cancer risk, per Kirsch. Other signals included speech delays (OR 2.48) and ADD (OR 1.72). Verstraeten's infamous email: "It just won't go away."

The published 2003 follow-up (Phase II, adding a third HMO) diluted these: No consistent links, though autism's OR hovered at 2.75 in one subset. Critics like Kirsch argue data manipulation, e.g., adjusting cohorts or exclusions, erased signals, echoing Simpsonwood 2000 transcripts where experts debated risks privately. Thimerosal was phased out by 2001 as a precaution, yet autism rates rose, which mainstream sources cite as disproof. But if initial raw data screamed caution, why not revisit unadjusted VSD archives? Even a null result would affirm safety; suppression fuels suspicion.

2. The MMR Whistleblower Saga: Allegations of Data Omission Demand Transparency

Fast-forward to 2004: A CDC study in metropolitan Atlanta examined MMR timing and autism in 624 ASD cases vs. 1,824 controls. Published in Pediatrics, it found no overall link. But in 2014, co-author William Thompson invoked whistleblower status, alleging the team omitted data showing a 340% increased autism risk in African-American boys vaccinated before 36 months (OR 3.4). Thompson claimed boss Frank DeStefano ordered exclusions to "clean" results; he recorded calls with Brian Hooker, who reanalysed the data and published (later retracted) confirming the signal.

The CDC countered: Subgroup analyses lacked power; overall data showed no link, and birth certificate exclusions (affecting ~25% of cases) were methodological, not manipulative. Thompson's 2014 statement regretted omissions but upheld vaccines' importance. Still, his sealed congressional testimony and Hooker's data raise red flags: If a vulnerable subgroup (e.g., preterm or minority boys) shows elevated risk, ethics demand spotlighting it, not binning it. Releasing full datasets for independent audit could settle this; stonewalling invites conspiracy.

3. Vaxxed vs. Unvaxxed Comparisons: Gaps in the Evidence Base

Kirsch's 2023 survey of 12,000 parents found ORs of 3.5+ for autism with higher vaccine doses, mirroring peer-reviewed work like Mawson et al.'s 2017 pilot (OR 4.7 for ASD in vaxxed kids). The Control Group's graphs show unvaxxed kids with lower chronic illness rates, including autism. Yet, mainstream reviews (e.g., IOM 2004, Danish 2019 cohort of 657,000) find no differences.

The rub? True vax/unvax studies are scarce, only ~2% of U.S. kids are fully unvaxxed, often from health-seeking families confounding results. Tony Fauci nixed NIH funding for one; Congress's 2018 bill died in committee. Kirsch claims >100 pro-link studies vs. 30 debunking, plausible if including mechanisms like aluminium adjuvants (Exley's 2017 autopsy found unprecedented brain levels in ASD donors, up to 3.82 μg/g). Exley was defunded and resigned, per Kirsch. A gold-standard, prospective vax/unvax trial (ethically feasible via delayed schedules) could clarify; absence breeds doubt.

4. Biological Plausibility: Toxins, Immune Overload, and Subgroup Risks

Aluminium adjuvants (up to 1.25 mg/dose) and thimerosal (ethylmercury, phased out but lingering in flu shots) aren't inert. Exley's work links aluminium to ASD brain inflammation, especially in non-neuronal cells. MMR's live viruses may trigger autoimmunity in genetically susceptible kids (e.g., MTHFR variants impairing detox). Schedule overload, 72 doses by 18, could strain infant immunity, per Kirsch's ORs. While no causal proof exists, parallels to known triggers (e.g., valproic acid's 10x ASD risk) justify probing subgroups like preterm boys or those with family history. Dismissing without subgroup analyses ignores precision medicine's promise.

Public Trust and the Cost of Dismissal: A Scientific Imperative

The vaccines-autism hypothesis isn't settled gospel, it's a mosaic of signals (VSD ORs, Thompson's claims, aluminium findings, vax/unvax gaps) demanding a landmark, independent trial: Prospective, diverse cohorts, full transparency, subgroup focus. Cost? Pennies vs. autism's $2.4 million lifetime burden per case. If null, it silences sceptics; if positive, it refines safety. No hypothesis, especially one touching 1 in 36 kids, deserves reflexive rejection. As Kirsch urges, replicate the surveys; as Thompson sought, release the data. Public health isn't decree, it's dialogue. Let's investigate boldly; the truth, whatever it is, will set us free.

https://kirschsubstack.com/p/the-link-between-vaccines-and-autism