The UK's "One In, One Out" Migrant Returns Scheme: A Quick Breakdown and Reality Check, By Richard Miller (Londonistan)
Migration Watch UK, a think tank that's vocally sceptical of high immigration levels, have crunched the numbers on the Labour government's flagship deal with France, launched in July 2025, and it's not painting a flattering picture. I'll break it down step by step, based on the latest data, including the scheme's glacial start and that embarrassing boomerang migrant story.
What Is the "One In, One Out" Scheme?
The Basics: Announced as part of Keir Starmer's push to "smash the gangs" behind Channel crossings, this is a year-long pilot treaty between the UK and France. It allows the UK to quickly return small-boat arrivals to France (within three days, if they're deemed inadmissible for asylum). In exchange, the UK takes in an equal number of asylum seekers from France who have "strong claims" (e.g., no prior illegal crossings, family ties, or clear refugee status) via a legal route.
The Goal: Deter risky Channel dashes by making it clear you might get ping-ponged back across the water. It's inspired by the EU-Turkey deal from 2016, but scaled down and bilateral. Labour ditched the previous Tory Rwanda plan on day one, betting on this plus a £100m "Border Security Command" for enforcement.
How It Works in Theory: UK Border Force detains arrivals, processes them fast, and flies or shuttles them back. France provides state-funded housing while sorting their next steps (e.g., asylum there or deportation home). No family ties to the UK? You're prime for return.
Sounds straightforward, right? In practice... not so much.
The Stark Numbers: Why 294 Years?
This assumes linear trends, no scaling up returns or drops in crossings. In reality, arrivals are accelerating: 2025 totals have blown past 2024's 36,816 already, with over 32,000 by September alone. Critics like Alp Mehmet (Migration Watch chair) call it "fibs and bluster," arguing it just swaps one set of arrivals for another while gangs keep cashing in.
The Migrant Who Beat the System (Twice)
Adding insult to injury: One of the first returns, an Iranian man, crossed on August 6, got booted back to France on September 19, then hopped another dinghy and landed in the UK on October 18. He's now detained again, with the Home Office vowing to ship him back "again and again" (per minister Josh MacAlister).
His story, via The Guardian: He claims modern slavery by smugglers in northern France, forced labour, beatings, death threats with guns. He says he hid it initially out of "shame" but fears for his life there. France pushes back, saying returns get safe housing and eight days to claim asylum or go home. The UK insists France is "safe," but this guy's loop highlights the scheme's loopholes: Legal challenges (e.g., slavery claims) can stall things, and the Channel's just a 21-mile hop away.
Broader Context: Is This Working at All?
Short Answer: Barely a dent. Crossings hit record daily highs this summer, and 2025 is on track to top 2022's peak of 45,774. Labour's removed 35,000+ illegals overall (many voluntary with £3k payouts), but Channel-specific returns are a rounding error.
Why the Snail Pace? Legal hurdles, limited eligibility (only no-family-ties adults), and France's capacity issues. Targets were 50/week initially — they've managed under 1/week. Plus, deaths are up: 2024 was the deadliest year (77 known drownings), and 2025 isn't slowing.
Government Spin vs. Critics: Home Secretary Yvette Cooper calls it "groundbreaking," tying it to anti-gang ops. But outfits like openDemocracy slam it as a "cruel gimmick" that trades humans like Pokémon cards, ignoring root causes like global displacement. Even Tories mock it: "Rwanda's farther, harder to Uber back."
294 years is eternal in policy terms. It's equivalent to saying the backlog stays forever, especially with boats still launching daily. If trends hold, this scheme might just be a pricey PR stunt (£75m+ invested) while the real fix (international aid, safe routes) gathers dust.
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