The “Surprise Examination” on the “October Surprise”! By Chris Knight

When I studied philosophy at university, which I failed, one of my failing essays was on what is called, "the surprise examination." It goes like this. A lecturer says that next week there will be a 'surprise exam." A surprise because you will not know when it comes. The students reason: well, it could not be Friday, as if it has not happened on Thursday, we would predict it, so it would not be a "surprise." Likewise for Thursday, and all the other days. Yet, the students get the exam on say, Wednesday, and are "surprised." I do not remember what I wrote in my failing paper, but I probably wrote trash and deserved to fail being a poor philosopher, or in the alternative, there is something fundamentally wrong with analytic philosophy. I never could get into problems like this. So what if there is a paradox, why should I care? And students need to be prepared for the exam for any day, so why should they be surprised? No, that is not how the game is played. You have to take these puzzles seriously to pass. Have a look at the journal Analysis to see how serious intellectual energies are devoted to such questions.

I was reminded of this puzzle, when thinking about what the supposed "October surprise" would what the changes the election. There was much speculation about this. But October is almost over, and while some black swam event could still happen, it looks like there is no "October surprise." Could it be that the surprise, is no surprise at all, and all that intellectual energy was wasted with idle speculation? It would not be surprising, and I am not surprised!

https://www.theblaze.com/columns/opinion/there-is-no-october-surprise