The Rise of One Nation, By James Reed
The South Australian state election on March 21, 2026, delivered a historic landslide for Premier Peter Malinauskas and the Labor Party, securing them a second term with a commanding majority — around 32–35 seats in the 47-seat House of Assembly, based on early counts and projections. Labor's primary vote hovered around 38–39%, a solid result that defied some expectations of erosion.
But from a pro-One Nation perspective, the real story — and the stark warning to Anthony Albanese's federal Labor government — is the explosive rise of Pauline Hanson's party. One Nation surged to an astonishing 21–22% primary vote statewide (spiking higher in early counting), comfortably outpolling the Liberal Party's dismal 18–19%. This wasn't just a protest vote; it was a seismic shift, with One Nation claiming at least one lower house seat (Hammond) and positioning for multiple upper house spots, including for leader Cory Bernardi. Pauline Hanson herself called it vindication after decades of fighting, declaring the result the start of real change and leaving "landmines" in the parliament for Malinauskas to navigate.
This outcome shatters the old "uni-party" duopoly in South Australia. One Nation didn't just nibble at the edges — it overtook the Liberals as the primary non-Labor force on primaries, capturing the mood for change among everyday voters fed up with establishment politics. Issues like cost-of-living pressures, immigration concerns, and distrust of the major parties clearly drove this "orange wave," especially in regional areas where One Nation polled strongest.
For Anthony Albanese, this is a glaring red flag ahead of any federal contest. South Australia has long been a bellwether state, and when voters there punish the Liberals by collapsing their vote to record lows while massively rewarding a Right-wing populist alternative like One Nation, it signals deep discontent with the centrist, big-government approach both major parties have offered. Albo's federal Labor has leaned into similar policies — high immigration, green energy mandates, and spending programs — that many see as out of touch. If One Nation can pull 22% in a state election against a popular incumbent Labor premier, imagine the damage in a federal poll where voters feel even more alienated from Canberra. This isn't just a state quirk; it's proof that the base is deserting the Liberals and refusing to default to Labor, instead rallying to a party that speaks plainly on sovereignty, borders, and economic nationalism.
Equally devastating is the message for the Liberal Party, which has now lost its way completely in SA. Leader Ashton Hurn conceded early, admitting lessons must be learned, but the party's primary vote cratered to its worst-ever result. Once-safe seats evaporated, and the Liberals were reduced to a rump of perhaps 4–8 seats. This isn't mere bad campaigning — it's a structural failure. The Liberals have spent years trying to out-Labor Labor on the Left (think net-zero virtue-signalling, big spending, and weak differentiation on culture issues), alienating their conservative base. Voters didn't come home; they went straight to One Nation, which offered unapologetic positions on immigration control, reducing foreign influence, and putting Australians first.
In short, the SA results scream that the Liberal brand is broken in key heartland areas, and One Nation is the natural beneficiary. For the Liberals to survive federally, they must reclaim conservative ground — on borders, energy realism, and cutting bureaucratic waste — rather than meekly triangulating. If they don't, One Nation will continue eating their lunch, just as it did here. And that is a mighty fine thing, too.
Pauline Hanson summed it up best: after 30 years, people are finally giving her movement their voice. This isn't the end — it's the beginning of a realignment that could reshape Australian politics. Albo should be very nervous, and the Liberals should be in existential crisis. The people have spoken, and they're done with the old game. And it is about time too!
Statewide, One Nation is polling above the Liberals, something once considered unthinkable. Pre-election polling already showed One Nation at around 22% compared to the Liberals at 19%, confirming a historic shift in voter sentiment. Tonight, on election night, that trend held.
More importantly, One Nation is outpolling the Liberals in 31 of 47 seats. That's more a replacement vote than a protest vote. The Liberal Party is not suffering a bad night. It is suffering a structural collapse. Its primary vote has fallen by double digits. Its base has fractured. Its identity is gone. Even establishment figures are conceding the scale of the disaster, with senior voices describing this as the worst Liberal performance in memory. This has gone down because voters have had enough.
Disillusionment with the major parties is now the dominant force in Australian politics. One Nation's surge has been driven heavily by voters who say they no longer trust the political establishment, particularly on cost of living, immigration, and basic service delivery. This is not fringe sentiment anymore. It is mainstream.
But here is the twist. Despite this surge, One Nation is not yet converting votes into seats. Why? Because the system is still trying to protect the old order.
In seat after seat, the Liberals are clinging on not because they are strong, but because of preference flows and the order of exclusion. Labor preferences and minor party flows are keeping Liberals alive long enough to stay competitive, even as their primary vote collapses. That is the only thing standing between One Nation and a breakthrough.
And now comes the part almost no one is talking about. South Australia has a little known feature in its electoral system: The vote savings provision. This provision allows ballots that would normally be informal, whereby a voter simply marks "1" alongside one party, to still be counted if the voter's intent is clear and a valid preference structure exists via a party-supplied preference ticket registered with the electoral commission.
One Nation encouraged voters to vote "1" and then number as they wished. Many voters appear to have stopped at "1". Ordinarily, that would cost votes. But not necessarily here. Because One Nation has lodged the required registered ticket, those ballots can be rescued and added back into the count. And that changes everything.
In tight seats, the margin between One Nation and the Liberals is razor thin. If even a small number of these "1-only" votes are recovered, then One Nation's primary vote rises, and the Liberals fall behind. Suddenly, Liberal vs Labor becomes One Nation vs Labor; a complete rewiring of the contest.
This is why election night is not the end of the story. Over the coming days, as votes are scrutinised and counted properly, some seats that appear safely Liberal could become genuine One Nation contests. And if One Nation makes it into second place in terms of seats, the entire electoral equation flips.
What we are witnessing is the beginning of something much bigger than a single election result. It is the end of the Liberal Party's dominance on the right. And the rise of a new political force that speaks to voters the old parties stopped listening to long ago.
In seat after seat across South Australia, One Nation is no longer the outsider. It is the preferred party of the Right.
https://nationfirst.substack.com/p/liberals-finished-one-nation-takes
