The Myth of Coding as a Job Security Guarantee in 2025, By Professor X

The promise that learning to code would secure a lucrative, stable career has been a mantra for a generation of college students, particularly those pursuing computer science degrees. Yet, as the experience of 21-year-old Manasi Mishra illustrates (see link below), graduating with a computer science degree only to face an interview at Chipotle, the job market for new graduates in 2025 has shattered this myth. With mass layoffs, automation driven by artificial intelligence (AI), and a cooling economy, coding skills alone are no longer a reliable shield against unemployment. This blog essay explores why the tech industry's downturn, coupled with broader economic challenges, has rendered coding an insufficient guarantee of job security for recent college graduates.

The tech sector, once a beacon of opportunity for coders, is undergoing a profound contraction. In 2025, major companies like Microsoft, Intel, Dell, and Cisco have announced layoffs totalling over 50,000 jobs, with Microsoft alone cutting more than 15,000 positions. These cuts reflect a structural shift, not a temporary blip. The integration of AI into workflows has automated tasks traditionally performed by entry-level coders, data processing, basic programming, and testing, reducing demand for junior roles. A Burning Glass Institute report notes that 52% of the Class of 2023 was underemployed a year after graduating, with computer science graduates facing higher-than-average unemployment due to tech layoffs.

Manasi Mishra's story, as reported by The New York Times, underscores this reality. Despite mastering coding and earning a degree, she faced a market where even tech giants are shedding workers. The rhetoric of "learn to code, earn six figures" has collided with a new truth: AI is replacing the very jobs it was supposed to create. Posts on X echo this sentiment, noting that even computer science graduates with strong credentials struggle without prior internships, a requirement that was less critical a decade ago.

The tech sector's woes are part of a larger economic malaise reminiscent of the early 1990s, as Michael Snyder observes. Job cut announcements in the U.S. surged 75% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to 2024, affecting industries beyond tech, including logistics (UPS) and retail. The unemployment rate for recent college graduates (ages 22–27) hit 5.8% in March 2025, up from 4.6% a year earlier, with underemployment at 41.2%. This mirrors the early 1990s, when new graduates faced fierce competition and limited opportunities, often settling for jobs outside their fields.

Young Americans are also grappling with financial precarity. The New York Federal Reserve reports that nearly 10% of credit card balances held by 18–29-year-olds were 90+ days overdue in Q2 2025, signalling financial distress. A Credit One Bank survey found that 62% of Gen Z have no emergency savings, leaving them vulnerable to economic shocks. This environment, coupled with a 60% perception among Americans that good-paying jobs are harder to find, paints a grim picture for new graduates expecting coding to be their ticket to stability.

Coding was once sold as a universal skill, but its value has been eroded by several factors:

1.AI Automation: AI tools like GitHub Copilot and ChatGPT can generate code, debug, and optimise programs, reducing the need for entry-level developers. The Burning Glass Institute highlights that companies are increasingly using AI for tasks historically assigned to new graduates, shrinking the pool of junior roles.

2.Experience Over Credentials: Employers now choose candidates with practical experience, often gained through internships, over academic credentials. Graduates without internships are at a severe disadvantage, a shift from past decades when degrees alone opened doors.

3.Oversupply of Coders: The "learn to code" mantra led to a surge in computer science graduates, saturating the market. Oxford Economics reports that college enrolment in tech-related fields has grown significantly, but job openings in computer and mathematical sciences have declined since 2022 due to AI adoption.

4.Economic Uncertainty: Broader economic factors, tariffs, inflation, and a cooling job market, have made companies cautious about hiring. The National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) notes that only 24.6% of employers plan to expand entry-level hiring in 2025, down from 27% in 2024.

The fallout from this oversold promise is devastating. Graduates like Mishra, who invested years and thousands of dollars in a computer science degree, face not just unemployment but also disillusionment. Underemployment in low-wage jobs outside their field can derail careers, as Snyder notes, trapping graduates in roles that don't leverage their skills. This is particularly acute in tech, where rapid skill obsolescence means a year in a non-relevant job can render a degree outdated.

Moreover, the financial strain is acute. With 62% of Gen Z lacking emergency savings and rising delinquency rates, young graduates are living on the edge. The shift to a gig economy or low-paying service jobs, like Mishra's Chipotle interview, offers little stability or upward mobility. Even traditional fallback roles, like delivery driving at UPS, are vanishing as companies offer buyouts to cut labour costs.

If coding alone is no longer a safeguard, what can new graduates do? The answer lies in adaptability and diversification:

Specialize in AI-Related Skills: While AI displaces some coding jobs, it creates demand for roles like AI engineering and data science. LinkedIn's 2025 report lists AI engineer as a fast-growing job title, with starting salaries averaging $130,548. Graduates should focus on AI ethics, machine learning, or niche areas like cybersecurity.

Pursue Internships Early: Practical experience is now critical. NACE data shows that 70% of employers prioritise candidates with internships, which often lead to full-time offers.

Explore Non-Tech Fields: Healthcare, construction, and utilities are growing, with nursing and business administration offering high employment rates (6% and 10% growth over the next decade, respectively). These sectors are less affected by AI disruption.

Build Resilience: Financial literacy and emergency savings are essential. Graduates should prioritise budgeting and side hustles to weather economic volatility.

The tech industry's downturn, driven by AI and economic uncertainty, has debunked the myth that coding guarantees job security. For recent graduates like Manasi Mishra, the reality is stark: a computer science degree is no longer a golden ticket. The parallels to the early 1990s underscore a broader economic contraction, with mass layoffs and fierce competition leaving young adults financially vulnerable. To navigate this, graduates must pivot to in-demand skills, maximise experience, and brace for a volatile market. The truth, as Snyder emphasises, is that we're in a substantial downturn, and coding alone won't cut it anymore. Young people should consider trades like plumbing; AI can't yet unblock drains!

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/she-thought-that-her-computer-science