The Military Vaccine Proxy: Are 60 Percent of VAERS Death Reports Causal? By Chris Knight (Florida)
Mathew Crawford in the discussion below, summarises work done by computational biologist Dr Jessica Rose about the VAERS data relating to the US military and adverse effects. “There are approximately 126,000 people serving in the U.S. military age 40 or above, and many of those are in positions of leadership. VAERS reports, which are notoriously undercounted, have been submitted for 3.7% of them. And 23% of the 9,428 AEs reported to VAERS for military personnel are severe (this is a much higher reporting rate than the public indicating that VAERS is likely undercounting hundreds of thousands of serious AEs at the very least). If those serious AEs are spread evenly among the age groups, that means around 1062 of those age 40 or above have suffered serious adverse events during the mass experimental quasi-vaccine campaign. But the number is likely higher, perhaps even in excess of 1% of the senior military staff!” This is showing a surprising level of adverse effects. It is highly likely that soldiers would be less likely that civilians to report adverse effects from vaccines, given their trained level of obedience to authority, so the actual stats would be much worse. This is another telling piece of evidence indicating that the covid vaxxes are an unmitigated disaster.
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“I was just exchanging emails with my friend Jessica Rose in the middle of the night while working feverishly on a report. She is my VAERS go-to source for stats, which she writes about often. You know…because she's one of those weirdos who thinks it's important to understand the effects of the contents in the syringe, which makes her an anti-syringer according to post-2018 copies of Webster's Fictionary.
Something frightening struck me about the VAERS data she emailed me. There are approximately 126,000 people serving in the U.S. military age 40 or above, and many of those are in positions of leadership. VAERS reports, which are notoriously undercounted, have been submitted for 3.7% of them. And 23% of the 9,428 AEs reported to VAERS for military personnel are severe (this is a much higher reporting rate than the public indicating that VAERS is likely undercounting hundreds of thousands of serious AEs at the very least). If those serious AEs are spread evenly among the age groups, that means around 1062 of those age 40 or above have suffered serious adverse events during the mass experimental quasi-vaccine campaign. But the number is likely higher, perhaps even in excess of 1% of the senior military staff!
Judging by this actuarial table and a bit of envelope math, I'm guessing that the military typically sees 600 to 800 deaths in that age group annually. If you happen to see more specific numbers, by all means correct me. Let's just say 2 deaths per day among the 40+ cohort.
There are 119 reports of death for the military in VAERS. By proportion, 58 would be 40+, but in reality, the age curve for deaths in VAERS is very steep, much like that for COVID-19 itself, so the number is likely around 100. That seems conservatives low given the age distribution I found on Jessica's website.
Jessica also pointed out that 37% of those military deaths occurred within 72 hours of receiving a quasi-vaccine dose. She whipped up this distribution in the last email she sent me:
That would be 37 of the 100 deaths, give or take. But we would only expect 6 people to die in that span. I think we just showed that around 31/37 = 84% of VAERS death reports received within 72 hours of vaccination are vaccine-induced. And that puts a minimum of 31% of all VAERS deaths as vaccine-induced. It would make more sense if a large proportion of those between 72 hours and 7 days were also vaccine induced, so my intuitive sense of the above distribution is that the number is likely closer to 60% than other round numbers.
Edit: If we count all parts of the above distribution above 2, we get to around 50%, so we could call 50% “the floor” if we like. I still like 60% or maybe a bit higher as the causal proportion for this cohort.
So, have 60% of 119 (around 71) people in the military died due to experimental COVID-19 vaccines?
This may even be an underestimate given that military reporting is higher per capita than for the rest of the U.S., and when fewer reports are filed, we should expect the ones that do get filed to have clearer perceived association with vaccination.
But remember—VAERS report updates are not public, so many more than that may have died who filed reports after suffering serious adverse events. Also, underreporting is a notorious feature of VAERS. In fact, if deaths were reported the way they are required by law, there would necessarily be a minimum of hundreds of thousands of additional death reports in VAERS, whether or not they are causal. But for the sake of argument, let us ask the question:
Is it possible that 60 members of the U.S. military's 40+ population died due to vaccination?
This would be out of roughly 90% x 2 x 126,000 + boosters = maybe 300,000 doses?
That comes to 1 death per every 300,000/60 = 5,000 doses within an age-restricted cohort with few extreme elderly (but more people flying often, meaning excess risk of blood clots). Is that reasonable?
Recall various estimates that a death occurs in 1 in 2300 doses (over the whole age distribution).
Understand that this is a mix of real numbers and envelope math, but the point is a serious one, with some serious evidence.
Obligatory reminder of where arrogant ambition of leadership sometimes diverts itself:
Are the adults in the room too busy lining up for CRISPR life extension? Does that square with an oath to serve the nation?”
https://www.wnd.com/2022/02/cdc-data-signaling-vaccine-catastrophe/
“But over the past two years, a data analyst with a PhD in computational biology and postdoctoral degrees in biochemistry and molecular biology has been conducting a thorough analysis of the data in the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System website.
In a video interview with WND, Jessica Rose argues that the whole point of the VAERS database is to watch for "safety signals" that may have been missed in clinical trials.
And the data, when interpreted according to a standard method of determining causation used by the World Health Organization, is signaling red alert.
"It's not debatable that something is going on here," she told WND.
Rose has a PhD in computational biology from Bar Ilan University in Tel Aviv, Israel, along with post-doctoral degrees in molecular biology and biochemistry. She began specializing in pathogenic viruses, including HIV research in a level 3 lab. Rose conducted epidemiological modeling after earning a masters degree in immunology and applied mathematics. She was a postdoctoral researcher in biology at the Israel Institute of Technology from 2016 to 2020 and now is an independent data analyst and researcher. Some of her latest evidence, findings and thoughts on the issue can be found on her website and Substack page.
In the 61-minute interview with WND, she pointed out that over the past 30 years – until 2021 – the average number of adverse events annually for all vaccines combined was about 39,000. And the number of deaths was about 140.
But to date, since December 2020, more than 23,000 deaths associated with the COVID-19 vaccines – more than 10,000 of those occurring in the United States – have been reported to VAERS. As of Feb. 4, VAERS has recorded 127,855 hospitalizations tied to the COVID shots and a total of 1.1 million adverse events.
Top public health officials dismiss the validity of the data in VAERS, arguing "junk data" or "false data" have been entered into the system. The CDC essentially insists that no one can say that any of the deaths reported to VAERS is caused by the COVID vaccines.
"That's not even a sensible thing, or scientific thing to say," Rose said. "You can't say that. Because these reports are made in the context of these specific products."
She emphasized that VAERS contains a "highly vetted data set" in which false entries are punishable by prison, and duplicates are removed.
Rose – who teamed with epidemiologist and cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough on a published study of VAERS reports of myocarditis – acknowledged that the percentage of the reported deaths and adverse events actually caused by the vaccines is unknown.
"But that's precisely what we need to find out," she said.
"And it's really important for us to do this fast. Because if the percentage of deaths caused by these products is high, then every day that we wait – because this data is backlogged – every day that we wait, people are dying."
The VAERS data is consistent with, among other things, the alarming trend observed in the insurance industry, the spike in sudden deaths and heart attacks in healthy athletes, the testimonies of vaccine-injured people and the more than 1,000 peer-reviewed studies presenting evidence of vaccine-related adverse events.
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