The Long and Winding Painful Road Ahead for Australian Workers By James Reed

While the prime minister has been crowing about a supposed 55,000 jobs created, the Australian Bureau of Statistics labour force release figures have indicated that unemployment has risen by 3.7 percent. The youth unemployment rate rose in October, to 9.2 percent, the highest it has been since late 2021. Economists are predicting a further slow down in the economy, so expect the unemployment figures to get even worse. Wages were given a kick in the guts during the Covid plandemic and it is anyone’s guess how long they will take to recover. Macrobusiness.com.au, my now go-to site for seeing the economic plight of Australia, sums it up: “It is going to be a long and painful road ahead for Australian workers.”

 

I cannot but feel that these coming times will present an opportunity, like the 1930s, for social credit champions to get out the message to the working people once more of where their path to genuine freedom really lies.

 

https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/11/australian-workers-brace-for-pain/?fbclid=IwAR0pSTpn6ipbUnKKCbgEmZrKqixM2ze_NBdOtlcybRBok8XhmRg7Fabj0Y8

 

“Thursday’s ABS labour force release was another case of numberwang, with the unemployment rate rising to 3.7% despite 55,000 jobs created.

As noted by CBA economist Stephen Wu, “the unemployment rate remains much lower than implied by its historical relationships with other labour market indicators such as surveyed measures of unemployment expectations and job ads”.

“The underemployment rate was unchanged at 6.3%. It stands well above the trough of 5.8% seen in February, but has been little changed over the second half of this year”:

However, “this month’s labour force report was influenced by the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice referendum”.

“The referendum was held on 14 October, and the survey’s reference period was from 1-14 October. The ABS noted that the referendum had a temporary effect on employment, hours and participation in October”.

“Given that, we could expect some payback next month, perhaps more so in employment, given that was stronger than expected”.

Moreover, the youth unemployment rate typically leads the broader labour market, and the “youth unemployment rate rose further in October, to 9.2%, the highest since late 2021”:

AMP chief economist, Shane Oliver, published a bunch of charts on Twitter (X) on Thursday showing that “leading labour market indicators point to a slowdown ahead”.

These include rising applicants per Seek job Ad:

The outlook for wage growth has also worsened given the rise in the underutilisation rate, according to Oliver

Indeed, the latest RBA Statement of Monetary Policy forecasts that it will take many years for Australian real wages to recover from the losses of the past three years:

It is going to be a long and painful road ahead for Australian workers.”

 

 

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Friday, 19 July 2024

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