The Liberal Party's State of Disarray: A Case Study in Self-Inflicted Wounds and the Case for One Nation, By James Reed

The Liberal Party is imploding, not with a bang, but with the pathetic whimper of yet another leadership spill. South Australia's Vincent Tarzia, the latest casualty in a parade of rotating-door leaders, stepped down this week, citing family priorities after just 16 months in the top job. It's a noble excuse, one that might even pass muster if it weren't for the stench of factional knives and policy flip-flops hanging in the air. Tarzia's abrupt exit marks the fourth Liberal leadership change across the states in under a month — joining the merry-go-round in New South Wales, Victoria, and the ACT — while Western Australia's remnants limp along with a skeleton crew of MPs. With South Australia's March 2026 election looming like a storm over the Flinders Ranges, this isn't just chaos; it's a death rattle. The Liberals, once the party of Menzies' forgotten people, have devolved into a faction-riddled farce, too timid to lead and too divided to win. They deserve replacement — not by more of the same, but by Pauline Hanson's One Nation, a force that's surging precisely because it offers the unapologetic backbone the blue-ribbon brigade has long since shed.

Let's start with Tarzia's downfall, a microcosm of Liberal weakness writ large. Elected to the Hartley seat in 2014 and thrust into leadership after David Speirs'resignation in 2024, Tarzia promised a "refresh" and a "refocus." What voters got was a reheated mess of half-baked policies and interview gaffes that turned the opposition into a punchline. His pièce de résistance? A bungled response to Labor's post-referendum push for an Indigenous "Voice" equivalent — a state-level advisory body that Tarzia first vowed to repeal, then hedged with a vague "Aboriginal Representative Body" add-on, only to backpedal into oblivion under media scrutiny. As The Australian reported just days before his resignation, internal warfare erupted: conservatives bayed for a clean axe on the "hugely unpopular" Voice (South Australia delivered the nation's highest "No" vote in the 2023 referendum), while moderates — and apparently Tarzia himself — feared alienating Teal-friendly suburbs. The result? A policy so contorted it resembled a pretzel baked in a wind tunnel. Unidentified MPs fumed to reporters: "Vincent and Josh [Teague, Indigenous Affairs spokesman] have stuffed the whole thing up... this just makes us look like we have got no idea because we are too afraid to take a stand."

This isn't isolated incompetence; it's symptomatic of a party allergic to conviction. Tarzia's social media scroll reads like a milquetoast manifesto: "Save our Seas" initiatives and a stamp duty phase-out by... 2041? Noble, sure, but executed with the urgency of a sloth on sedatives. In a state where Labor's Peter Malinauskas rides high on delivery — tackling cost-of-living woes and infrastructure without the ideological baggage — the Liberals yap like chihuahuas at a Malinois convention. Speirs, Tarzia's predecessor, captured the exhaustion perfectly: "The party has got particular challenges... I've just had a gutful." Now, with shadow health minister Ashton Hurn — another first-term MP — tipped as the frontrunner to replace him, the Liberals eye yet another novice at the helm, potentially deepening the factional chasm. Polls paint a grim picture: the party's primary vote has cratered to 21-26%, trailing Labor by double digits on a two-party preferred basis. Three months from polling day, with Christmas downtime eating into campaign time, this is less a shuffle of deck chairs and more a full-scale evacuation.

Zoom out, and the rot is nationwide. The 2025 federal election was a bloodbath for the Liberals: Peter Dutton lost his Dickson seat, the Coalition plummeted to 43 seats — their worst since 1946 — and Sussan Ley clawed her way to leadership amid whispers of existential crisis. State-level carnage followed: Victoria's Brad Battin rolled in November, New South Wales' Mark Speakman on borrowed time, and the ACT's implosion installing a radio host as leader. Factions, moderates versus the National Right, tear at the seams over net zero, gender quotas, and immigration, with no formal structure to broker peace like Labor's disciplined machine. The party that once championed aspiration now chases Teal scraps, embracing "immoral race politics" to snag inner-city seats while alienating its blue-collar base. On X, the sentiment is savage: one user quipped, "More @LiberalAus turmoil. This time in SA, as leader quits," linking to ABC coverage of Tarzia's fall. Another flagged the "FOURTH Liberal Party leadership change," with polls showing Liberals at rock bottom.

Enter One Nation: the phoenix rising from the Liberals' ashes. While the establishment flails, Pauline Hanson's outfit is polling at 11.5% in South Australia, trailing Liberals by just a whisker and up nationally to 14%, its highest since 1998. Post-2025 federal election, One Nation doubled its Senate seats to four, snagging wins in New South Wales and Western Australia for the first time outside Queensland. MRP models project 12 House seats if an election were today, eclipsing the Nationals and fuelled by a 20% bleed from Coalition voters. Why the surge? One Nation speaks plainly on voter pain points, slashing immigration, axing the NDIS bureaucracy, ditching UN/WHO entanglements, and rejecting race-based governance outright. No backflips, no Teal pandering; just raw, unfiltered conservatism that resonates with the 78% of its supporters who fear their kids' lives will be worse than theirs.

In South Australia, where One Nation's 2022 breakthrough elected Sarah Game (before her acrimonious exit) and now polls at 12%, the party could siphon enough from disgruntled Liberals to tip marginals. Nationally, membership has ballooned 60% since May, with chief of staff James Ashby plotting to poach more Coalition votes by outflanking them on "Australian values" screening for migrants — a policy Ley echoed days later. As one analyst notes, "The ground is shifting... One Nation could replace the floundering Liberals." It's not hyperbole: with Coalition preferences flowing their way (60% in 2025, up from 30% in 2022), One Nation isn't just a protest vote, it's a viable alternative.

The Liberals' weakness at the state level — timid leadership, policy paralysis, and factional cannibalism — stems from a deeper malaise: a party unmoored from its roots, chasing woke mirages while real Australia burns. They deserve replacement by One Nation, not as a fringe agitator, but as the genuine opposition force willing to draw battle lines on sovereignty, security, and sanity. Tarzia's calm farewell — "I'm very calm" — belies the panic; Hurn's potential ascension offers more of the same soft shuffle. Voters, especially in the burbs and regions, are done with the charade. As 2026 beckons, the question isn't if the Liberals will fall, it's whether One Nation will catch them, or let them shatter.I say, the sooner the Liberals shatter, the better! The Liberals are not, nor ever were a party defending traditional Australia, and as seen with John Howard's Asianisation policy (making up for his brief 1988 dabble with the opposite, soon abandoned); the Liberals have been as radical as Labor in destroying traditional Australia. Out with them!

https://www.spectator.com.au/2025/12/vincent-tarzia-taken-down-by-the-sa-voice-saga/