The Grid Collapse Scenario, By Brian Simpson and Chris Knight (Florida)

Michael Snyder's Substack from a few weeks back, hits like a lightening strike: With Chinese hackers burrowing into U.S. power grids and Russian cyber ops ramping up; a full-scale US blackout, maybe Australia too, isn't sci-fi, it's a when, not if. And if it's an EMP (electromagnetic pulse) from a high-altitude nuke or solar flare? Forget rolling brownouts; we're talking weeks, months, or years of darkness, frying transformers and backdooring 90% of the grid software. The tech fallout? Catastrophic. But the real horror show? The social unravelling. Drawing from historical blackouts, Hurricane Maria's year-long nightmare in Puerto Rico, and vulnerability studies, let's dissect the human dynamics of a grid-down world. Spoiler: It's not Mad Max overnight; it's a slow-burn slide into tribalism, inequity, and raw survival instinct; this is the sociology of the end!

The Spark: Why an EMP Grid Collapse Hits Different

First, the setup. An EMP isn't a storm, it's a silent killer. A high-altitude detonation (say, over Kansas) unleashes E1/E2/E3 pulses that overload unshielded electronics: SCADA systems crash, transformers melt (they take 12-18 months to replace), and suddenly, our hyper-connected society is unplugged. NERC reports 60 new vulnerabilities daily in our grids, with 23,000-24,000 weak spots last year alone. China and Russia aren't bluffing, Wray's testimony confirms they're prepositioned for "havoc."

Socially, this amplifies everything. Short outages (hours) spark minor gripes; prolonged ones (days+) expose fractures. A 90% population die-off in year one? That's no hyperbole; starvation, disease, and violence could claim billions in a modern context, per EMP Commission estimates. Why? Our just-in-time society runs on electrons: No power means no pumps (water/sewage), no fridges (food spoils in 48 hours), no ATMs (cash evaporates), no comms (cell towers die). Enter the human element: Panic, hoarding, heroism, and horror.

Phase 1: The Shock – Confusion and the Fog of Blackout (0-72 Hours)

Day zero: Lights flicker, then nothing. No alerts, EMP fries radios too. Initial reaction? Bewilderment. A 2019 review of 47 major outages found most people freeze: "What now?" In NYC's 2003 blackout (affecting 50M), folks milled about, sharing laughs over candles, social bonds held. But scale matters: An EMP hits the whole Eastern/Western Interconnections (2/3 of North America), so no "help from Ohio."

Social Dynamics:

Urban vs. Rural Divide: Cities erupt in chaos, elevators trap thousands, subways strand commuters. A 2022 study on long outages predicts 70% urban vulnerability spike due to density. Rural areas? Slower panic, but isolation breeds fear. Puerto Rico post-Hurricane Maria (2017): Island-wide blackout lasted 11 months for some, killing ~3,000 via indirect effects (no dialysis, spoiled meds). Social media (pre-collapse) amplified rumours; post-EMP, word-of-mouth rules.

Equity Gaps Emerge: Low-income, elderly, disabled hit hardest. A 2025 Nature study flags "power outage-risk integrated social vulnerability " minorities in flood-prone grids face 2x longer outages. Gulf Coast data: High-vulnerability counties see 3–5-day delays in restoration. Expect triage: Hospitals ration generators for the "worthy."

Hoarding kicks in by hour 24, grocery shelves empty in NYC-style runs. But it's not all looting: 80% of responses in outages are prosocial (sharing food, checking neighbours). Yet, in Hurricane Maria's wake, frustration boiled: Protests over slow federal aid, with 200,000 fleeing to the mainland.

Phase 2: The Grind – Resource Wars and Social Fragmentation (3 Days - 2 Weeks)

Power's out; reality bites. Water stops (pumps fail), sewage backs up, ATMs freeze. A week in, society's glue dissolves, per a 2023 systematic review, North American outages spike mental health crises 40% (anxiety, suicides).

Key Dynamics:

Economic Implosion: No transactions, barter booms, but inequality widens. MSMEs (small biz) lose 50-70% revenue in Sub-Saharan analogues; expect U.S. parallels. Wealthy enclaves (prepped with solar/gensets) thrive; urban poor face famine. Hurricane Maria: Food imports halted, prices tripled, leading to black markets and theft rings.

Health and Hygiene Breakdown: Disease surges, cholera in Haiti post-quake; expect dysentery here. Vulnerable groups (disabled, elderly) die first: 25% higher mortality in high-vulnerable areas. Gulf models predict 10-20% excess deaths from med device failures (oxygen, insulin). Socially? Caregiving strains families, women/girls bear 70% burden, per global outage literature.

Crime and Conflict: Looting spikes 300% in week one (2003 blackout data), but organised crime fills vacuums, gangs control water points. In Hurricane Maria, theft of aid supplies eroded trust; expect vigilante patrols in suburbs. Gender-based violence? Up 30% in disaster zones, as power loss isolates victims.

Communities fragment: Tight-knit neighbourhoods (rural, ethnic enclaves) cohere via mutual aid; atomised suburbs splinter. A 2022 ScienceDirect study: Social capital buffers 50% of outage stress. But rumours fuel paranoia, "Feds poisoned the water!" echoing Hurricane Maria's conspiracy waves.

Phase 3: The Reckoning – Tribalism and the Long Dark (2 Weeks - 3 Months)

By week three, supply chains snap, grocery stocks (3-day U.S. average) vanish. Starvation hits: 90% die-off models assume this phase claims half via famine/disease. Socially? Full fracture.

Dynamics:

Authority Vacuum: Cops vanish (no fuel); militias rise. In prolonged outages, governance shifts local, neighbourhood councils or warlords. Hurricane Maria: Barrios self-organised with solar lanterns, but rural areas saw 200% crime surge.

Migration and Refugees: Mass exodus, Puerto Rico lost 5% population post-Hurricane Maria. Borders mean nothing; expect tent cities, clashes over resources. Intersectional lens: BIPOC/rural poor migrate last, facing 2x barriers.

Psychological Toll: "Collective hysteria" per EMP literature; suicides up 50%, PTSD 70%. But resilience shines: 60% report stronger bonds in outages. Kids? Trauma scars, Hurricane Maria's child psych issues linger years later.

Phase 4: The Remnant – Feudal Futures and Uneven Recovery (3+ Months)

Survivors adapt: Microgrids (solar co-ops) emerge, but unevenly. Wealthy suburbs fortify; cities hollow out. Socially? Neo-feudalism, skilled (mechanics, farmers) as nobility; unskilled as serfs. A 2024 Springer study: EVs could buffer 20% of outages via V2G, but only for the prepped. Long-term: Cultural shifts, back-to-basics values, but deepened divides (tech haves vs. have-nots).

Puerto Rico redux: Seven years post-Hurricane Maria, blackouts persist (Fiona 2022 island-wide), breeding cynicism and emigration. Protests rage against privatisation fails; resilience via community solar, but grid's "fragile as ever."

The Human Thread: Not Doom, But a Call to Weave Stronger

Grid collapse isn't apocalypse porn, it's a mirror to our fragilities: Over-reliance on just-in-time fragility, equity blind spots, eroded social capital. But history shows glimmers: Hurricane Maria birthed resilient microgrids; blackouts forged neighbours. Preppers aren't paranoid, they're prudent.

Actionable Anchors:

Prep Smart: 72-hour kits (water, non-perishables), community networks, Faraday bags for radios. Longer preps are even better, putting away non-perishables, like tin food.

Build Bonds: Neighbourhood watches, skill-shares, social capital > canned goods.

Advocate: Push grid hardening ($3.8B per EMP Commission), microgrid incentives.

Equity Focus: Support vulnerable groups, stockpile meds, teach low-tech hygiene, with supplies to help neighbours.

In the dark, we rediscover each other; our essential humanity under the hardship of storm and stress. An EMP won't end us — it'll force a reckoning, and just maybe, an awakening.

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/this-is-why-everyone-needs-to-prepare

"What would you do if the power grid where you live went down and there was no electricity for an extended period of time? You might want to think about that, because experts are warning that it is just a matter of time before cyberattacks successfully cripple our power grids. In fact, foreign hackers are working hard to infiltrate critical infrastructure as you read this article. As you will see below, we are extremely vulnerable, and the Russians and the Chinese have both developed highly advanced cyberwarfare capabilities. When the U.S. ends up fighting a war with Russia or China (or both simultaneously), devastating cyberattacks on our power grids will be conducted. When your community is suddenly plunged into darkness, what is your plan?

The United States and Canada are not covered by a single power grid.

Rather, there are multiple grids that collectively provide the electricity that all of us need. The following explanation comes from Wikipedia…

The electrical power grid that powers Northern America is not a single grid, but is instead divided into multiple wide area synchronous grids.^[1] The Eastern Interconnection and the Western Interconnection are the largest. Three other regions include the Texas Interconnection, the Quebec Interconnection, and the Alaska Interconnection. Each region delivers power at a nominal 60 Hz frequency. The regions are not usually directly connected or synchronized to each other, but there exist some HVDC interconnectors. The Eastern and Western grids are connected via seven links that allow 1.32 GW to flow between them. A study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory found that increasing these interconnections would save energy costs.^[2]

Bloomberg is reporting that "US power grids are facing heightened risks of cyber and physical attacks as the election nears", and one expert is warning that there is "a 100 percent chance" that critical infrastructure will eventually be breached at some point…

"I think there's a 100 percent chance that organizations in the critical infrastructure space at some point will experience some short of breach," said Stephanie Benoit Kurtz, lead cybersecurity faculty at the College of Business and Information Technology at the University of Phoenix. "No longer are the days when organizations can say, 'We'll never be breached.' It's not if, it's when."

Sadly, I believe that she is quite correct.

We should have never exposed our power grids to the Internet, and now we are incredibly vulnerable.

During a recent congressional hearing, FBI Director Christopher Wray publicly admitted that Chinese hackers have been targeting our power grids…

FBI Director Christopher Wray said Wednesday that China's hackers are targeting American critical infrastructure, including water treatment plants, pipelines and the power grid, to be able to "wreak havoc" in the U.S. if Beijing ever decides to do so.

Testifying before the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, Wray also warned that there has been too little public attention on the threat that he says China's efforts pose to national security.

"China's hackers are positioning on American infrastructure in preparation to wreak havoc and cause real-world harm to American citizens and communities, if and when China decides the time has come to strike," Wray told lawmakers.

This is a very real threat.

The moment that China invades Taiwan, the U.S. and China will be at war.

And the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has warned that ""if Beijing feared that a major conflict with the United States were imminent, it almost certainly would consider undertaking aggressive cyber operations against U.S. homeland critical infrastructure and military assets worldwide."

Most Americans don't realize that the groundwork for such cyber operations is already being laid. For example, last August Chinese hackers specifically targeted the Texas power grid…

The report says that, in August, hackers attempted to access the computer systems used by the Public Utility Commission of Texas, or the PUC, and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, which operate the state's power grid. Most of Texas is on its own power grid, separate from the grids used by most of the country.

If you think that our systems are secure, you are just being delusional.

The truth is that we are extremely vulnerable, and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation admits that the number of weak spots is growing with each passing day…

U.S. power grids are increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks, with the number of susceptible points in electrical networks increasing by about 60 per day, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) said in a webcast on Thursday.

The grids' virtual and physical weak spots, or points in software or hardware that are susceptible to cyber criminals, grew to a range of 23,000 to 24,000 last year from 21,000 to 22,000 by the end of 2022, executives with the energy regulator said.

"It's very hard to keep pace with addressing all those vulnerabilities," said Manny Cancel, senior vice president of NERC.

But foreign entities wouldn't even need to gain access through a weak spot if there are already back doors in place.

According to one analysis, "about 90 percent of software used to manage the U.S. power grid is linked to Russian and Chinese developers"…

Orlando based Fortress Information Security explained that any "kid" with internet can contribute their "block" that then can be developed into software used in America's critical infrastructure. A "block", one of these code components, can risk the whole structure– our energy grid.

"A Chinese agent or a Russian agent can install backdoors into one of these components. And then unbeknownst to a software manufacturer, you grab this component, which has been tampered with and poisoned by Russian or Chinese actor and now they put that component into their software, and it ends up in our electrical grid or, or an oil rig," said Alex Santos, CEO of Fortress Information Security.

The company analyzed nearly 8,000 of these open-source components. 13 percent had contributions from Russia and China. Fortress found about 90 percent of software used to manage the U.S. power grid is linked to Russian and Chinese developers—something that can make it three times as likely to contain critical vulnerabilities.

How in the world did we allow that to happen?

Are we really that incompetent?

I was floored when I first read that.

I had no idea that we were so vulnerable.

Of course it isn't just our power infrastructure that is being targeted. According to Politico, Europe has been "inundated" with cyberattacks since Russia invaded Ukraine…

Thousands of cyberattacks have inundated Europe's energy grid since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and a top industry leader is calling for help as officials and researchers fret that not nearly enough is being done.

"The crooks are becoming better by the day, so we need to become better by the day," Leonhard Birnbaum, the chief executive of E.ON, one of Europe's largest utilities, said in an interview. "I'm worried now and I will be even more worried in the future."

We have never seen this sort of warfare before.

So most people greatly underestimate the threat.

But someday the power in your area could suddenly go out without any warning whatsoever.

Temporary interruptions are not a problem, but if the power is out for an extended period of time our entire way of life will start rapidly shutting down…

When power stops, life grinds to a halt. Lights go out. Sewage treatment stops. Clean water stops. Electric cars, buses and trolleys stop. Elevators stop, trapping older and disabled people. For many, home heating, refrigeration, cooking and clothes washing stops, along with medical devices such as oxygen generators.

For many years, I have been warning my readers that conflict with Russia and conflict with China would be coming.

Now both of them are actively hacking into power infrastructure in the United States and Europe.

I hope you have a plan, because it is just a matter of time before cyberattacks start causing widespread chaos all over the globe."