The Great Replacement in Germany: Economic Needs vs. Cultural Shifts, By Richard Miller (Londonistan)
Germany stands at a crossroads, grappling with a labor shortage that spans both skilled and unskilled sectors, while facing profound demographic changes that are reshaping its national identity. The push for increased immigration to fill these gaps, as highlighted in a recent RMX News article, has sparked a heated debate about economic necessity, integration challenges, and the long-term consequences of what some call "The Great Replacement." This discussion explores these issues, drawing on the German experience to examine how pressures from both above (policy and industry) and below (grassroots concerns) are driving this transformation.
German industries, from logistics giants like Deutsche Post and Deutsche Bahn to the hospitality sector represented by the German Hotel and Restaurant Association (Dehoga), are sounding the alarm over labour shortages. Thomas Ogilvie, Chief Human Resources Officer at Deutsche Post, has said that the deficit extends beyond specialists to workers in "fundamental activities" across sectors. Similarly, Sandra Warden of Dehoga argues that Germany cannot rely solely on formally qualified professionals, advocating for streamlined immigration to bring in low-skilled workers. Deutsche Bahn echoes this, viewing every operational hire, regardless of origin, as critical.
This demand for foreign labour is not new. Over the past decade, sectors like restaurants, parcel delivery, and transport have increasingly relied on refugees and migrants to fill roles that Germans are either unwilling or unable to take. Yet, this reliance comes against a backdrop of domestic underutilization: nearly 40,000 students leave German schools annually without qualifications, and 2.9 million young adults lack vocational or university credentials. Instead of addressing these educational and training gaps, policymakers and businesses have leaned heavily on immigration as a quick fix, choosing economic expediency over systemic reform.
The numbers tell a stark story. In Berlin alone, the population of Indian nationals surged from 3,579 in 2014 to 41,472 in 2024, a 1,000 percent increase. Nationally, Indian nationals now number 274,910, with many entering through study or family reunification channels. In 2024, Indian student numbers rose by 40 percent, reflecting a broader trend of legal immigration driving demographic change across Europe. Germany's new citizenship laws, allowing naturalisation after just three years under certain conditions, have accelerated this shift. In 2024, 249,901 foreigners became German citizens, a figure exceeding the population of entire cities like Chemnitz, with Syrians and Turks leading the way.
These changes are particularly pronounced among younger generations. While only 15 percent of Germans over 65 have a migration background, this rises to 45 percent among 15-year-olds and over 50 percent among newborns. Former Bundesbank executive Thilo Sarrazin, whose 2010 book Germany Abolishes Itself warned of unchecked immigration, now claims that ethnic Germans account for just 40 percent of births. He projects that by 2070, 80 percent of births will be to non-German mothers, predominantly from Muslim backgrounds, a trend he believes could intensify with future migration waves.
The term "The Great Replacement,' popularized by French writer Renaud Camus, describes the gradual displacement of native populations by immigrants, often framed as a deliberate policy by elites. In Germany, this idea has gained traction among critics like Sarrazin, who argue that current trends are not merely a response to labour needs but a transformative force altering the nation's cultural and ethnic fabric. Sarrazin's warnings, once dismissed as alarmist, now resonate with those who see the rapid pace of demographic change, coupled with relaxed citizenship laws and integration challenges, as a threat to national cohesion.
Critics point to practical strains: housing costs are rising, integration systems are stretched thin, and communities struggle to adapt to rapid cultural shifts. Berlin's target of 40,000 new naturalizations in 2025 has raised concerns about lax language standards and inadequate political screening, potentially exacerbating social tensions. These fears are compounded by the perception that economic priorities are overriding cultural considerations, with little public debate about the long-term implications.
While industry leaders and policymakers push for open immigration, grassroots sentiment often tells a different story. Many Germans worry that the rapid influx of migrants, particularly in low-skilled sectors, is reshaping communities faster than they can adapt. The hospitality sector's reliance on foreign workers, for instance, is visible in everyday life, restaurants and delivery services increasingly staffed by non-Germans. While this fills immediate economic needs, it fuels unease among those who feel their cultural identity is being eroded.
This tension is not unique to Germany but reflects a broader European struggle. The replacement "from below" perspective, ordinary citizens concerned about schools, neighbourhoods, and social cohesion, clashes with the "from above" push by elites for economic growth through immigration. The lack of robust integration policies or investment in domestic training programs only deepens this divide, leaving many to question whether Germany is sleepwalking into an irreversible demographic shift.
Germany's labour shortages are real, and immigration has undeniably bolstered its economy. However, the current approach, favouring quick fixes over structural reforms, risks long-term consequences. Investing in education and vocational training could reduce reliance on foreign labour while empowering the 2.9 million young Germans without qualifications. Stronger integration policies, including rigorous language and cultural programs, could ease social tensions and ensure newcomers contribute fully to society.
The Great Replacement, whether a deliberate policy or an unintended consequence, is a polarising, but correct lens through which to view these changes. Yet, the underlying issue is undeniable: Germany is transforming rapidly, and the balance between economic pragmatism and cultural preservation remains precarious. Traditional white Germany is disappearing, day-by-day.
"Germany is not only facing a shortage of skilled workers but also a growing demand for low-skilled labor, prompting calls from major industries and trade associations to expand and streamline immigration pathways.
According to Welt, businesses such as the Deutsche Post, Deutsche Bahn, and the hospitality sector are advocating for simplified procedures to hire foreign labor, particularly for basic operational roles.
"Only through an open and pragmatic immigration policy can we successfully overcome the challenges of the labor market in the future," said Thomas Ogilvie, Chief Human Resources Officer at Deutsche Post, in comments to Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. He stressed that the shortage is not confined to specialists but extends to workers for fundamental activities across sectors.
Sandra Warden, Managing Director of the German Hotel and Restaurant Association (Dehoga), echoed this sentiment, arguing that the country cannot rely solely on formally qualified professionals. "If German companies give foreign workers a proper employment contract, working in Germany must be possible," she told the paper.
A Deutsche Bahn spokeswoman similarly supported immigration as part of the solution, noting that "every hire for operational positions is important to us."
Over the past decade, restaurants, parcel delivery firms, and transport providers have become key employers of refugees. Yet, this comes amid striking statistics: Nearly 40,000 students leave German schools each year without qualifications, and some 2.9 million people between the ages of 20 and 34 in Germany lack a vocational certificate or university degree.
Failing to utilize their domestic labor pool, European leaders have largely favored immigration to fill the gaps, opting for economic expediency over deeper reforms in education, job training, or structural labor incentives. Germany is no exception.
One stark example of demographic change comes from Berlin. Official figures show that the number of Indian nationals in the city skyrocketed from 3,579 in 2014 to 41,472 in 2024 — an increase of over 1,000 percent. Across Germany, Indian nationals now number 274,910, ranking fifth among source countries for net immigration behind Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan, and Turkey. While many work in IT or healthcare, a growing number are entering through study or family reunification channels. In 2024, the number of Indian students surged by 40 percent compared to recent yearly averages.
Legal immigration has now become the dominant driver of demographic shifts across Europe. Proponents point to its benefits for economic growth, but critics warn that it strains integration capacity, drives up housing costs, and reshapes national identity too rapidly for communities to adjust.
Germany's new laws allow immigrants to apply for citizenship after just three years of residence under certain conditions. In 2024, a record 249,901 foreigners became German citizens — more than the population of cities like Chemnitz. Notably, these figures exclude three states: Lower Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, and Schleswig-Holstein, and thus will be far greater in reality. Syrians and Turks led the nationalities gaining citizenship.
Berlin alone, under its CDU-led administration, is targeting 40,000 new naturalizations in 2025, raising concerns about the adequacy of language standards, potential legal loopholes, and the lack of thorough political screening.
These rapid changes have sparked renewed debate about long-term consequences. Earlier this month, former Bundesbank executive and author Thilo Sarrazin, known for his 2010 book warning of unchecked immigration, said recent figures exceed even his most dramatic forecasts. "I predicted that within a few decades, Germans would become a minority in their own homeland. But it will come much sooner," Sarrazin said.
While only 15 percent of people over 65 in Germany have a migration background, that figure rises to 45 percent among 15-year-olds and exceeds 50 percent among newborns. According to Sarrazin, ethnic Germans currently account for just 40 percent of births. "These are the figures that are decisive for what the German population will look like in 2070, given that we are only about two generations away from it."
He projects that by 2070, about 80 percent of all births will be to non-German mothers, with the majority coming from Muslim backgrounds. "That is my estimate today, but the situation could get even worse… if another sudden wave of mass immigration comes," he warned.
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