The Fallout from the Coming Israel-Iran War By Richard Miller (London)
The latest news item I have seen indicates that Israel is preparing for an attack by Iran in the next two days. As that report was in the morning here, the attack will possibly occur over the weekend. There are no details, naturally enough about what is likely to be attacked, but there are some horror scenarios, such as a nuclear incident arising from the attack upon the Negev Nuclear Research Center near Dimona, thought to be where the country makes its nuclear weapons.
There have been war games simulations done by the US politicians, Middle East experts, military personnel and security analysts, run by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre. The simulations all lead to an extensive nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran, which assumes, plausibly enough that Iran now has nuclear weapons, that work. The result of this will be mutual annihilation.
Hopefully, if the Iran attack does occur it will not put Israel in the situation of an existential threat. But we will see.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/27248797/iran-israel-war-simulation-nuclear-ww3/
"The terrifying war games - crafted by military and security experts - lays out how nuclear strikes between the countries could unfold.
It sets out a chilling step-by-step scenario, beginning with conventional missile strikes that do nothing but rile up fury in each respective country.
Iran and it's terror proxies including Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis all have powerful long-range, high-precision rockets which they use to hit key Israeli targets.
Israel hits back and is fighting off Iranian proxies on a frontline in Syria and Lebanon near its border while striking Iran by air.
Tel Aviv appeals to the US several times for intervention but with no luck becomes isolated in its fight against Iran.
Eventually it resorts to a non-lethal nuclear detonation in an attempt to make Iran surrender, which it does not.
A desperate Israel eventually launches 50 nuclear weapons towards Iran, who unleashes its own nuke ambush against an air base with US troops.
The war game simulation ends here with a conflict that would involve Syria, Lebanon, even Yemen and could reduce large parts of the Middle East to a pile of smoking, radioactive rubble.
If the two did find themselves in a nuclear stalemate, the West would likely become embroiled in the conflict too.
The possibility of an explosion between the countries is looking increasingly likely after days of back-and-forth threats.
US intelligence even warned Israel this morning that Iran could attack after it vowed "punish" Israel after several top commanders were killed in a blitz on its consulate in Syria.
Conventional war
Beginning with conventional air-fighting via missiles, the war simulation sees Israel and Iran aim at each other's key military targets.
Iran then begins attaching nuclear warheads to its already formidable rockets, prompting Israel to launch US long-range missiles at Iranian nuclear and missile sites.
Almost immediately Iranian-backed terror proxies including Hezbollah, Houthi and Hamas unleash a wave of devastating strikes on Israel.
They kill at least as many civilians as those who died during the grim October 7 massacre by Hamas.
Israel responds by attacking proxy hotbeds, as the US and UK did this year with the Houthis in Yemen.
A seething Iran ups the anti, striking Israeli nuclear and government defence sites in capital Tel Aviv.
Meanwhile Iran withdraws from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, marking a shift from conventional to nuclear war.
Nuclear hell
Israel at this point turns to the US, telling them that conventional strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have done little to hamper their weapons store.
The US doesn't approve a joint raid on Iran and tells Israel to dial back the fighting - for fear of nuclear escalation.
Israel's prime minister, out in the cold without their biggest ally, decides nuclear weapons are the only option.
While it begins with a non-lethal explosion in a remote part of Iran, Israel also launches cyber-attacks, sending a message to Iran to step down.
Tehran does not bend to Israel's will.
Instead, the US steps in to urge Israel to stand down.
Now desperate, Tel Aviv decides to launch a terrifying 50 nuclear weapons against 25 Iranian military targets to cripple Tehran's forces.
Unsurprisingly, Iran unleashes a nuclear strike of its own against an Israeli air base where US military work.
With nukes flying in both directions, the war game simulation ends.
Run by the Nonproliferation policy education centre last year, it predicted the events of a war between Israel and Iran in 2027, the bulletin reports.
Mutual destruction
A nuclear war, between any countries, is sure to spark mutual devastation.
While plenty of analysts try to remain cautiously optimistic that mutually assured destruction is enough to prevent a nuke battle - it may not be the reality in coming years.
Against a backdrop of boiling tensions in the Middle East, reports surfaced this week that Israel is already preparing to strike Iran's nuclear sites.
Netanyahu's war cabinet has been locked in crunch meetings over fears that Iran will launch an assault as its proxy Hamas continues to battle the IDF in Gaza.
Iran is also trying to use Syria, Israel's neighbour, as a precision missile base as Israel attempts to block the concerning move, jpost reports.
This latest escalation marks a disturbing similarity to the war game simulation - where war unfolds with missiles flying back and forth.
Earlier reports also suggest a war between the two would begin with Iran striking Israel with missiles - roping in Hezbollah, its proxy in Lebanon.
While Iran is considerably bigger than Israel, and has a long arm of terror groups acting on its behalf in the Middle East, it has no air force capabilities.
If it dispatched troops from Iran they would be made vulnerable by Israeli defences along the way.
And Tel Aviv would surely attack its oil and gas trades by launching at key ports - hurting the economy.
But Israel will be facing off three proxy armies on its borders while taking hits from the sky sent by Tehran.
It is not only Iran and Israel that would suffer, but neighbouring states caught in the crossfire.
And the IDF could attack airports in Lebanon, Syria or Iraq to prevent troops and equipment being moved.
Of course, if the conventional conflict were then to escalate and become a nuclear WW3, both countries could be blown to smithereens along with the rest of the Middle East.
Iran and Israel's nuclear power
Iran is home to several nuclear sites - including power plants, uranium mines and research reactors.
Many of its nuclear hubs have been kept secret, buried in underground bunkers and factories and hidden from the West in Iran's Great Salt Desert.
Tehran has been rapidly ramping up its stores of enriched uranium - the key ingredient for a nuclear bomb.
Some of it is very close to being weapons-grade, and experts have previously warned The Sun that it could forge a nuclear weapon "in the blink of an eye".
One UN nuclear watchdog report showed that an Iranian factory is now producing the dangerous substances at a manic pace - potentially doubling the plant's output.
Israel is widely thought to have possessed nuclear weapons since the 1960s, it has never officially confirmed them nor signed the international Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons treaty.
Previous estimates suggest it's home to between 80 and 400 nuclear warheads, but the figure could be higher now."
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