The End of the Global University? By James Reed
According to some economic theorists, such as Jon Chew, "one of world's leading market analysts in international education," the era of globalisation for the universities is over, and the movement of free markets that began in the 1980s is coming to an end. Instead, there will be increased government intervention and budget constraints, a transition from a market era to a managed era, Chew thinks. "It's about what is best for our country, our people, our jobs, our manufacturing base, our industries, our skills needs. That is the undercurrent of this transition to the managed era.
"The biggest beneficiaries of economic globalisation have been the educated elite. And the biggest divider in the US is between those who are college-educated and those who aren't.
"So the question is, is it about universities or the distribution of wealth and income inequality around the world? Who have been the beneficiaries of globalisation and who have missed out? What divide does that take in our society and who takes the blame?"
To answer that question, the globalist ruling elites have benefited from globalisation, but ordinary people have faced falling real income or outright unemployment being displaced by migrant labour, and a declining quality of life. Competition for professional jobs has also been created by the mass importation of a new professional class, via the international students, who aim to get residency, super-easy, and a job. Then chain migration. Forever.
As for the era of globalisation ending for the universities, it seems contrary to what we observe in Australia, with some once Australian universities 50 per dent foreign and classes conducted in Mandarin. This is a model for what the New World Order elites want near-future Australia to be. Most of our problems have an origin in the universities.
"There is a theory that higher education peaked in the mid-2010s and that global and domestic forces are coalescing in a powerful union to bring an end to decades of growth.
Universities in Australia and around the world are facing major budget cuts, revenue challenges and new layers of government intervention, as an era of free markets and globalisation that began in the 1980s comes to an end.
Jon Chew, one of world's leading market analysts in international education, says that higher education is moving from a 40-year period of dynamic globalisation into one of government intervention and constraint.
"We've gone from the market era into a managed era," Chew told a roundtable of experts
Education is moving from an era of free markets and open movements of students across the globe to one that is managed and controlled by governments.
Speaking to the roundtable convened by higher education specialist company Keypath, Chew said universities were in a period of shock as they adjusted to the new order.
"The backdrop to higher education around the world has changed dramatically since the global financial crisis, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic," says Chew, global head of insights and analytics at international education provider Navitas.
"If we look at the broader global macroeconomic data, direct foreign investment has peaked, global world trade has peaked, we are seeing many more government interventions around tariffs and national security policy. The World Trade Organisation is not doing the function it used to as the arbiter of these things."
Rising nationalism among politicians is also at the heart of the managed era, Chew says.
"It's about what is best for our country, our people, our jobs, our manufacturing base, our industries, our skills needs. That is the undercurrent of this transition to the managed era.
"The biggest beneficiaries of economic globalisation have been the educated elite. And the biggest divider in the US is between those who are college-educated and those who aren't.
"So the question is, is it about universities or the distribution of wealth and income inequality around the world? Who have been the beneficiaries of globalisation and who have missed out? What divide does that take in our society and who takes the blame?"
Government intervention
In Australia, direct government intervention in how universities manage themselves is becoming far more prevalent.
Among the policies that are reshaping the university sector are caps on new international student enrolments set to be introduced on January 1 if legislation passes through the Senate in late November.
Under the plan, the government will set the number of new enrolments at 270,000, with each college and university being allocated a specific quota.
Senior economists and even the Reserve Bank of Australia have expressed concern about the economic consequences of the cap.
In October, the RBA warned the move could push down exports significantly.
"The implications of lower student arrivals for the balance between aggregate demand and supply, and hence for the inflation outlook, were less clear," the minutes of the meeting, held in September, read.
"Lower numbers of international student arrivals would be likely to reduce aggregate demand (including for housing), but also lower growth in population and therefore the economy's supply capacity."
At the same time, demand for higher education from domestic students is also soft – even as government policy has ambitions to double the number of students by 2050.
The number of Australian students studying for a bachelor's degree has fallen more than 13 per cent since 2016, as rising student debt and the booming jobs market turn young people off higher education.
Improving equity
Education Minister Jason Clare wants most of the growth to come from the bottom 25 per cent of the population based on wealth and disadvantage. The figure is now just 17 per cent and has not changed over the past decade despite multiple government policies designed specifically to lift participation among poorer students.
Education Minister Jason Clare. Alex Ellinghausen
The growing ambivalence towards university study sits against a backdrop of rising demand for university-level skills.
Oxford Economics, a consultancy that did the number-crunching on demand for skills into the future for the government's universities accord, found that 5.8 million jobs requiring a university education are expected to be added to the labour force over the next 30 years, increasing the number of jobs that require a degree to 10.8 million in 2052.
Ryan O'Hare, founder and CEO of Keypath Education Australia & Asia-Pacific, says the emergence of education technologies is bringing higher education to those "just below the elite".
"We are starting to get a greater proliferation of access at the level below the traditional university attendance," he says. "We have skills shortages everywhere, whether its cybersecurity, or nursing or aged care or disability.
"There is no shortage of demand for education, but the imbalance between supply and demand isn't going away and is being intensified by nativist government interventions.
"We have market saturation. In my view, nations are going to be underserved as a result of the slowing down of the globalisation trend.
"Locally, we don't have anywhere near enough allied health professionals. We don't have enough people. We can't serve the ageing population. The only way to do that is to educate more people, and that is becoming increasingly difficult as economies contract and there is a growing intolerance for migration."
O'Hare says the growing tension between the need for skills and political views around the need to reduce migration is beyond universities' control but also puts them on the front line.
Ant Bagshaw, executive director of the Australian Technology Network, says COVID-19 had proven that universities are incredibly adaptable.
"Throughout history they have responded to different trends in student demand, in industry needs and in doing research that is going to benefit society," Bagshaw says.
"Clearly, some institutions are facing challenging times around current changes. But history shows that universities adapt and respond to their conditions."
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