The Demographic Winter By Mrs Vera West
The likes of Professor Paul Ehrlich continue to press the Malthusian idea that the world is once more heading to an over-population catastrophe, this time, unlike when he made big new in 1968 with his book, The Population Bomb, there is a shopping list of potential disasters, such as climate change and biodiversity, he draws upon. But, what is being missed here is that things can change rapidly. It is a fact that while there is a global population increase, at a decreeing rate, births are uneven, with most of the demographic momentum being in Africa, which really does have a population explosion. In the West, no country has a replacement fertility rate, meaning that populations are headed to extinction. The immigration lobby says, no worries, we import the population, and as they will be non-white that will get the Great Replacement white genocide program in full swing. However, regardless of that, migrants soon have the low fertility of the local population, with a few exceptions. No ethnic groups with a tried and proven track record of technical productivity has a positive replacement reproduction rate. So, immigration is not an answer if one wants capitalism to tick over. Thus, there is indeed, as Elon Musk has noted, a big problem here. It is worse, given other issues, such as the possible decline in fertility from the Covid vaxxes, and the fall in sperm quality and quantity, which some researchers see, at worse, of human extinction coming by about 2045:
“Elon Musk and a new generation of pronatalists are warning of falling birth rates, but some say fertility decline should be celebrated
Soon after China reported that it saw more deaths than births last year, its first population dip in 60 years, Elon Musk, father of 10, again sounded the “population collapse” alarm, tweeting that a decline in birth rates globally heralds an “existential problem for humanity, not overpopulation!”
The billionaire Twitter owner is perhaps the highest profile figure associated with a resurgence of pronatalism, a new generation of “pro-birth” activists and anxious governments spooked by declining birth rates. Pronatalists fear the world is on the verge of “demographic collapse” and that if something dramatic isn’t done, the consequences will be dire. Among them, a rapidly aging world with fewer working-age bodies to support social programs and growing populations of pensioners; innovation will suffer, economies and living standards will stagnate or collapse. Civilization, Musk has warned, “will crumble.” It’s all a much bigger risk than global warming, the Tesla CEO has tweeted. “Mark these words.”
The reborn movement, Business Insider reports, is “taking hold in wealthy tech and venture-capitalist circles,” led by billionaire business elites and people like Malcolm and Simone Collins, the Valley Forge, Penn., founders of pronatalist.org. According to the Collinses, “humanity has a very real chance of experiencing an extinction event.” Life-extension therapies likely won’t save us, the couple says, despite the vast sums poured into “rejuvenation” tune-ups and young blood transfusions by Silicon Valley types. What could save us, they say, are artificial wombs that would make childbearing truly egalitarian, or a reproductive process, currently being tested in mice, that could permit the creation of human embryos using skin, muscle, liver or blood cells that have been coaxed into behaving like egg and sperm cells. Embryo screening and selection also figure into their plans.
The couple has three young children and aspires to have at least four more. “If you are committed to a high birth rate and building a healthy culture for your family,” they state on their website, “we want to talk!”
Declining birth rates merit serious consideration, economists have said. Children play a crucial role in economic growth and “intergenerational fiscal sustainability,” wrote the authors of a recent paper in Fertility and Sterility that makes a case for publicly funded, medically assisted reproduction. According to some forecasts, 183 of 195 countries will have total fertility rates — the number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime — below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, by 2100. “When you’re slightly above 2.0 or 2.1 versus slightly below, that’s the difference between the population growing forever and the population shrinking forever,” Charles Jones, a professor of economics at Stanford Graduate School of Business said in an interview last month. Negative population growth, Jones said, “could be a problem.” If birth rates continue to collapse, Musk has warned, “civilization will indeed die with a whimper in adult diapers.”
But some say the new generation of pronatalists is operating from a warped bubble of techno-utopia, that its leaders are more interested in populating the planet with their own genes and artificially assisted “super babies” than collapsing cultures, an image pronatalists reject. “Imagine if there really were some secret cabals of rich dudes trying to just make more of themselves,” Malcolm Collins told the National Post. “Wouldn’t that be outrageous and wild?”
“What we find ironic about this is that, for the first time, there’s a pronatalist movement that is not about preserving any particular culture, but rather one about preserving as many cultures as possible and avoiding a hard landing on demographic collapse,” said Malcolm.
More than a quarter of the world’s countries have pronatalist policies aimed at boosting fertility rates and encouraging people to have more babies. Critics, however, argue the “humanity is going to collapse” trope is creating unnecessary alarmism and that the planet’s most pressing problem is that there are already too many of us consuming too much. If there’s any collapse to be feared, “that would be environmental collapse,” said Nandita Bajaj, the Toronto-based executive director of Population Balance, an organization that works to fight environmental degradation that it says is a result of human expansionism. The world’s population hit the eight billion mark in November. “Globally, we’re still adding about 80 million people every year to the planet,” Bajaj said. “That growth stems from pronatalism, which is all of the cultural and institutional pressure that promotes or even coerces childbearing.”