Robert M. Kaplan is no anti-vaxer.  However, he observes the fact that Covid-19 infections declined in the US long before vaccines came on the scene. This same sort of decline prior to vaccines has been observed with other diseases that have been taken to be solely eliminated or dealt with by vaccines, including tuberculosis, scarlet fever, influenza, pneumonia, diphtheria, whooping cough, measles, smallpox, typhoid, and polio. While Kaplan does not go there, there is an argument here that vaccines in general are much less important that the establishment thinks, compared to public health measures and natural resistance and health.

https://www.statnews.com/2021/07/12/covid-19-decline-preceded-vaccines-still-need-jabs-finish-the-job/?utm_campaign=rss

“As coronavirus infections decline in the U.S., it seems appropriate to celebrate the triumph of vaccines over viruses. But how much of the credit do vaccines deserve? Less than you might expect.

Don’t get me wrong: I believe in vaccines. I got vaccinated as soon as I was eligible and am 100% behind the goal of getting everyone on the planet vaccinated. Yet there are other factors also at work in quelling a pandemic.

Following patterns from previous pandemics, the precipitous decline in new cases of Covid-19 started well before a meaningful number of people had been vaccinated.

Nearly 50 years ago, medical sociologists John and Sonja McKinlay examined death rates from 10 serious diseases: tuberculosis, scarlet fever, influenzae, pneumonia, diphtheria, whooping cough, measles, smallpox, typhoid, and polio. In each case, the new therapy or vaccine credited with overcoming it was introduced well after the disease was in decline. More recently, historian Thomas McKeown noted that deaths from bronchitis, pneumonia, and influenza had begun rapidly falling 35 years before the introduction of new medicines that were credited with their conquest.

These historical analyses are relevant to the current pandemic.

New cases of Covid-19 peaked in early January 2021. Since then, cases retreated from more than 300,000 per day on Jan. 8 to around 55,000 on Feb. 21. Vaccines were first given emergency use authorization toward the end of December 2020. By Feb. 21, only 5.9% of Americans had received two shots, yet there had been an 82% decline in new cases.

To be sure, coronavirus vaccines are a remarkable accomplishment. But even a vaccine that’s 95% effective can’t take full credit if it is introduced on the back of a naturally receding epidemic. Timing is everything.

There are two ways to develop immunity: natural infection and vaccination. The best explanation for declining rates of Covid-19 appears to be previous infections, which vary considerably from state to state.

Individuals with confirmed Covid-19 diagnoses are only the tip of the iceberg. Although estimates vary, the most recent study from the National Institutes of Health suggests that about five people were infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, for each person with a confirmed case. Multiplying known cases by five yields a rough estimate of the number of people who may have been infected. I performed a simple calculation of what I call the natural immunity rate by dividing my estimate of the number of people naturally infected by SARS-CoV-2 by the population of the state.

By mid-February 2021, an estimated 150 million people in the U.S. (30 million times five) may have had been infected with SARS-CoV-2. By April, I estimated the natural immunity rate to be above 55% in 10 states: Arizona, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, Utah, and Wisconsin. At the other end of the continuum, I estimated the natural immunity rate to be below 35% in the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, Oregon, Puerto Rico, Vermont, Virginia, and Washington.

But one trend appears to be clear. As in previous pandemics, the rapid fall in new cases preceded the widespread distribution of vaccines. Although vaccines deserve much credit for declining rates of Covid-19, the protection provided by natural infection has been underappreciated. Emerging evidence shows that previously infected people have effective and durable immunity that rivals or exceeds the benefits of vaccines.

When historians look back at this pandemic, they might report that credit for its resolution should be shared by vaccines, natural immunity, and other public health measures. But even though vaccines did not initiate the decline in Covid-19 cases, they are the best tool available for assuring that the smoldering fire of it is extinguished.”

As said above, the same phenomenon was observed with most diseases said to have been controlled by vaccines, where the fall-off began before the vaccine: “The Questionable Contribution of Medical Measures to the Decline of Mortality in the United States in the Twentieth Century,” by John B. McKinlay and Sonja M. McKinlay The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly. Health and Society vol. 55, no. 3 (Summer, 1977), pp. 405-428.