The Coming Demographic Death of China By James Reed
I knew that China would be facing some degree of demographic decline, but resent research indicates that China’s population could half in the next 45 years. The cause is the same as in the West, women in the economy by choice or necessity, and not having babies. It is the living confirmation of the so-called demographic transition theory, that increased affluence and women’s “lib” leads to crashing birth-rates. Thus, China will need to embrace diversity, and take in all of its subjects from the Third World Belt and Road Imitative. Fill China to the brim with millions of migrants from Africa to increase their ethno-racial diversity! It is the only way to maintain superpower status. Trust me on this one friendly, cuddly, CCP. Let’s hear what the Global Times has to say about this one!
“China’s population could halve within the next 45 years, new study warns
- Researchers say previous estimates may have severely underestimated the pace of demographic decline
- Census data says the birth rate was 1.3 children for each woman last year – well below the level needed to stop the population from falling
- China’s population decline
- may be much faster than expected, with the number of people in the country halving within the next 45 years, a new study has warned.
- The projection was based on the official birth rate of 1.3 children per woman last year – well below the figure of 2 needed to keep the number stable – and forecast a
- much more dramatic decline
- than previous estimates.
- China’s current population is over 1.4 billion
- and in 2019 the United Nations projected that China would still have around 1.3 billion people by 2065.”
“China's population could halve within 45 years, researchers have warned, after new census data showed the country's birth rate has fallen to a lower-than-expected 1.3.
It means that each woman is giving birth to an average of only 1.3 children in their lifetimes, well below the average of 2 that is needed to maintain a stable population.
If the trend continues, analysts warn the country's current 1.4 billion population could halve before the end of 2055.
For decades, China has tried to keep a lid on its rapidly expanding population by strictly limiting the number of children couples could have - but it is now racing to un-do those policies as the pendulum swings back in the other direction.
Beijing adopted its notorious one-child policy in 1979 after the country's population near-doubled in just three decades, putting a huge strain on resources.
Brutal enforcement methods led to a rapid drop in births, with the policy only eased in 2013 to allow single-child households to have another baby.
The policy was further eased in 2015 to allow all households to have two children, and in August this year the policy was relaxed further to allow three children.
Just this week, Beijing said it was planning to limit abortions for 'non-medical reasons' in a further sign of the growing alarm about China's shrinking workforce.
Now, a new research paper by academics at X'ian Jiaotong University has laid bare the scale of the problem - warning the rate of decline may have been seriously under-estimated.
In 2019, the United Nations noted China's declining population and said the country could expect to have 100 million fewer people by 2065.
But Professor Jiang Quanbao now believes there could actually be 700 million fewer people in the country by the end of 2055.
If the birth rate drops further, then the rate of decline could be even more dramatic, his latest research paper warns.
A birth rate of 1 would see China's population halve by 2029, he wrote.
Chinese authorities 'need to pay close attention to the potential negative inertia of population growth and make a plan with countermeasures in advance', he wrote according to an account in the South China Morning Post.
China's population decline has been caused by a number of factors, Quanbao said.
First, the country now has more people over the age of 60 - 18 per cent of the population - compared to those aged under 17 - 17 per cent of the total.
That means the death-rate is likely to exceed the birth-rate for years to come, unless younger people start having particularly large families.
There is little sign of that, SCMP points out, because China's economic boom has driven the cost of having families up - making it unaffordable even for those who do want lots of children.
The country's rapid advancement has lifted large numbers of people out of poverty while providing better-quality schooling and career options - factors that are well-known for driving birth rates down.
Instead of settling down early and having children over the course of decades, young people in developed economies are more-likely to hold off on having kids so they can get educated and advance their career.
China's one-child policy has also skewed the population gender balance.
Male children are seen as more-desirable in China, so families that were limited to having only one child often opted to have a boy - with pregnancies often terminated if the parents found out they were having a girl.
While a natural population should have a roughly even male-female split, China has an average of 105 men for every 100 women.
That also works to decrease the birth rate, because there are not enough female partners for China's male population.
Declining populations can cause economic issues as large numbers of people retire from the workforce with not enough people to replace them.”
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