The Collapse of Western Europe, Mirroring Ancient Rome’s Collapse: Dr Edward Dutton, By James Reed
The Dr Edward Dutton article argues that Western Europe is undergoing a rapid collapse into chaos, driven by a combination of factors.
The central thesis of the piece is based on the decline in intelligence, which he attributes to dysgenic breeding trends among Western populations. This trend is described as leading to lower cognitive abilities in the population, which, in turn, diminishes the capacity for sustaining complex civilizational systems.
Dutton also highlights the impact of mass immigration, particularly from the Third World, as further exacerbating the problem by lowering average IQ and straining societal systems like education and integration. He compares the decline of Western Europe to the fall of the Roman Empire, suggesting that Eastern Europe, by contrast, may be on the rise due to delayed industrialisation and lower levels of immigration.
Additionally, Dutton references reports indicating that parts of the UK are now poorer than regions in Eastern Europe, such as Slovenia and Lithuania, signalling a reversal in economic fortunes. He suggests that this shift could lead educated individuals from the UK to migrate to Eastern Europe, mirroring historical movements like the migration to Byzantium during the decline of the Roman Empire.
In summary, the article portrays Western Europe as in the midst of a demographic and intellectual decline, which is contributing to economic stagnation and societal disintegration, potentially resulting in a future resembling the chaos often associated with Third World countries.
The argument that Western Europe is heading towards a "Third World" status hinges on a confluence of demographic, economic, and social factors, many of which challenge the region's stability and long-standing social fabric. These challenges, including increasing ethno-racial conflict, mass violence, and rising inequality, signal a profound transformation that threatens to undermine the cohesion of European societies. Here is a case for how these elements may be contributing to the ongoing collapse of Western Europe.
1. Rising Ethno-Racial Tensions and Conflict
One of the most critical factors contributing to the destabilization of Western Europe is the increasing ethnic and racial tension resulting from mass immigration. Over the past few decades, Western European nations have seen a substantial influx of immigrants from the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa. While immigration was initially seen as a source of labour for aging European populations, the failure to integrate these new arrivals has led to mounting tensions.
In cities like Paris, London, and Berlin, there have been frequent reports of violence, protests, and civil unrest stemming from frustrations within immigrant communities. This is compounded by the growth of separatist movements, often based on ethnic and religious divides, such as those seen with Muslim communities in France.
As the number of immigrants from non-European countries grows, these ethnic and racial tensions have deepened, often leading to violent clashes between groups, with local populations and immigrants competing for resources, jobs, and social benefits. This tension is exacerbated by the perception among some native Europeans that their culture, language, and identity are being undermined by demographic shifts.
2. Mass Violence and the Erosion of Public Order
Mass violence in urban areas has also become a growing concern. Violent crime rates, including gang violence, sexual assaults, and street violence, have risen in several major European cities, especially in neighbourhoods with high immigrant populations. The influx of immigrants has been linked to the spread of organised crime, including drug trafficking and human trafficking networks.
In countries like Sweden, France, and Germany, law enforcement agencies have struggled to maintain order in immigrant-dense districts. This has led to what some describe as "no-go zones," where police and emergency services are hesitant to enter due to safety concerns. This breakdown in law and order has led to increasing frustration among both immigrant and native populations, undermining the stability of European societies.
Mass violence also extends beyond just organised criminal activity. As the social and economic conditions of many marginalised immigrant groups worsen, tensions sometimes erupt in the form of riots, as seen in the 2005 riots in France and more recent unrest in Sweden. These events suggest that large segments of the population feel alienated, disenfranchised, and disconnected from the state, contributing to an escalating cycle of unrest and violence.
3. Economic Stagnation and Growing Inequality
The economic situation in much of Western Europe also points toward a decline resembling the struggles often associated with Third World nations. Unemployment rates, especially among young immigrants and second-generation migrants, are much higher than the general population, leading to growing poverty and social discontent.
At the same time, austerity measures, implemented in response to the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent eurozone issues, have disproportionately affected the working and middle classes in several European nations. This has led to a sharp increase in economic inequality, with wealth and resources concentrated in the hands of the elite, while large segments of the population face stagnant wages and declining living standards.
In some areas, this economic inequality is compounded by a rise in housing prices and unaffordable living conditions, pushing working-class and immigrant communities further into poverty. As a result, frustration with the government and the perceived elite has grown.
4. Declining National Identity and Social Cohesion
The erosion of a unified national identity has been a longstanding concern in Europe. The cultural assimilation of immigrant communities has proven difficult in many areas, with large numbers of immigrants living in parallel societies that operate under different norms and values. This lack of integration has led to the growth of radical ideologies, including Islamic extremism, and other forms of political extremism.
As national identities become more fragmented, societal cohesion weakens. In the absence of shared values and cultural norms, a sense of collective purpose and unity begins to disintegrate. This not only leads to alienation among marginalised groups but also makes it difficult for the state to exercise effective control over its own citizens, leaving a vacuum in which violence, extremism, and disorder can flourish.
The decline in the social fabric is further exacerbated by the breakdown of the family unit, increasing secularism, and declining religious observance, which historically have been stabilising factors in many Western societies. The weakening of these societal pillars, combined with mass migration, has led to a rise in social isolation, a sense of rootlessness, and a decline in the traditional values that once held communities together.
In some cases, state institutions themselves seem incapable of addressing the underlying problems. Corruption, inefficiency, and a lack of political will to tackle pressing issues like immigration and integration have led to widespread disillusionment with traditional political structures. As a result, many Europeans feel as though they have lost control of their own societies.
When looking at the constellation of factors affecting Western Europe today—rising ethno-racial tensions, mass violence, economic stagnation, the erosion of national identity, and the rise of authoritarian movements—it becomes clear that the region is facing profound challenges. These issues, when left unaddressed, threaten the social and political stability of Europe, which may ultimately resemble the disorder and chaos that many associate with "Third World" conditions.
While it is still premature to predict the ultimate trajectory of Europe, these alarming trends suggest that the continent could be on a path toward decline, marked by increasing violence, social fragmentation, and political instability. Whether Europe can recover its former cohesion or will descend into a state of permanent crisis remains an open question. However, the current trajectory points toward a future where the once-proud nations of Western Europe may struggle to retain the stability and prosperity they once enjoyed.
"Could Western Civilization be preserved in Eastern Europe just as Roman Civilization was once preserved in Byzantium, which is (almost) Eastern Europe? Considering that Eastern Europe is so much poorer than Western Europe and many of the nations there seem to have a lower average IQ and higher levels of corruption, than countries such as the UK, the question may seem bizarre. But my own recent research, combined with other emerging data, is leading me to think that the question is increasingly reasonable.
I've written a lot in recent years about how the West, like the Roman Empire, is likely to collapse due, in part, to dysgenic breeding among Whites: Intelligence is strongly genetic, it's behind every aspect of civilization and there is a negative association, especially among women, between intelligence and fertility, such that we are losing about 1 IQ point per decade for genetic reasons. Imperial Rome clearly witnessed a negative relationship between socioeconomic status – a strong proxy for intelligence – and fertility and, likewise, went into decline. It also witnessed immigration from the periphery of the Empire, where conditions were often easier, so historical selection for intelligence wouldn't have been as intense. Either way, as my colleagues and I set out in our study "Intelligence Trends in Ancient Rome: The Rise and Fall of Roman Polygenic Scores," we know that Roman intelligence went into decline during the Late Republic for genetic reasons.
There are a number of reasons why we might expect intelligence in parts of Eastern Europe to eventually exceed that of much of Western Europe. Firstly, they industrialized later which would have mean they moved into dysgenic fertility later, as living conditions improved later. Secondly, studies indicating they have lower IQ will at least in part reflect the fact that they are poorer and have worse education systems, mindful of the fact that about 20% of IQ differences relate to the presence of an intellectually stimulating environment. As they become wealthier, having been economically retarded by Communism, we would expect to see a so-called Flynn Effect; an increase in IQ for environmental reasons. Thirdly, there is far less Third World immigration into these countries. Third World immigration will negatively impact the IQ even of the native population because it will worsen the education system (due to poor immigrant behaviour) and render the general environment less intellectually stimulating for everybody. Likewise, if you bring increasingly stupid people into a university, you render the general environment less intellectually stimulating for everybody and so people are pushed to their phenotypic maximum intelligence to a lesser extent. In other words, you create a Flynn Effect in reverse. It should also be remembered that parts of Eastern Europe — such as Estonia, Hungary or Slovenia — had about the same average IQ as the UK (British IQ is the Greenwich Mean, always set at 100) — even in the immediate wake of Communism, when data could be collected.
In my study "Changes in Cognitive Capital in Eastern and Western Europe: Some Implications from School Assessment Studies," I drew upon three international student assessments that are accepted to be excellent proxies for IQ tests and for which we have large samples from each country: PISA, TIMMS and PIRLS, based on the results between 1995 and 2019. When the lower school and economic standards were taken into account, ex-Communist countries displayed significantly stronger growth scores on the PISA tests, which are robustly associated with IQ. In other words, Eastern Europe is rapidly catching up with Western Europe in terms of their students' performances in Mathematics, Science and Verbal Reasoning. It is probable that part of the reason is that Western countries are declining, relative to Eastern European countries, due to the effects of dysgenics and due to the effects of low IQ immigration.
The change is consistent with related trends that have recently emerged. The UK's ITV News reported on 12th March 2025 that the UK's poorest households were now poorer than the poorest households in Slovenia. Slovenia is one of the wealthiest countries in the old Communist Bloc and was the first to be economically robust enough to be allowed to adopt the Euro. If we judge a nation's success and development level by the living standards of its poorest people (which is probably a good way to do so, as massive economic disparities are associated with developing countries), then, in effect, this means that Slovenia, a Second World Nation, has caught up with and overtaken Britain.
On the same day, the Daily Telegraph reported that parts of the UK are now worse off than the poorest parts of Lithuania and they are considerably worse off than Finland, which, a century ago, was poorer than the Baltic States. Finland now has the wealthiest "poor people" in Europe. However, parts of Birmingham and Northeast England are poorer than the poorest parts of Lithuania. As "Stella" quipped on X: "Import the Third World, Become the Second World." This makes sense in terms of Birmingham. But the other area of England that was poorer than the poorest parts of Lithuania was the Northeast, which is overwhelmingly White. This would be more consistent with the consequences of dysgenic breeding among Whites combined with intelligent people from that region tending to migrate to the more prosperous south.
At this rate, British people may start moving to the more prosperous Eastern Europe, just as educated people in the chaotic Western Empire once moved to Byzantium. I predicted that this would happen in my 2022 book The Past is a Future Country where I discussed the idea of a Neo-Byzantium, but I didn't think I'd start to see the signs of it only three years later. The West, or, at least, Western Europe, seems to be collapsing at a shockingly fast rate.
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