The Collapse of the West: A Defense of George Christensen’s Collapseology Thesis, By Brian Simpson and James Reed

George Christensen's Nation First article, drawing heavily on Professor David Betz's essays in Military Strategy Magazine,

https://www.militarystrategymagazine.com/article/civil-war-comes-to-the-west/

presents a provocative thesis: the West is on the brink of civil war and societal collapse, driven by internal fractures, failing infrastructure, and a deepening loss of social cohesion. This "collapseology" thesis, while alarming, is grounded in historical patterns, empirical data, and observable trends. Below, we defend Christensen's argument by synthesising Betz's analysis, supporting evidence from recent events, and broader historical and theoretical frameworks, while addressing potential counterarguments.

Betz's concept of "feral cities" is central to the collapseology thesis. He argues that Western urban centres, London, Paris, Berlin, are devolving into fragmented enclaves marked by no-go zones, private militias, and eroded trust in governance. This is not mere speculation, but a projection based on observable trends. For instance, the 2024 arson attacks on France's high-speed rail network during the Olympics and the sabotage of London's ULEZ cameras by "Blade Runners," demonstrate a growing willingness to target critical infrastructure. These acts of sabotage reveal the vulnerability of urban systems, which rely on fragile, often undefended networks like power grids, gas pipelines, and fibre-optic cables.

The thesis is further supported by the erosion of social capital, a concept rooted in political science and sociology. Social capital, trust, shared norms, and community cohesion, has measurably declined in Western societies. Surveys like the 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer show trust in institutions (government, media, NGOs) at historic lows across Western nations, with only 43% of respondents trusting governments in developed countries. This distrust fuels tribalism, as seen in the rise of identity-based enclaves and private "Community Defence Forces," which Betz notes are already emerging in urban areas. Historical parallels, such as the fragmentation of the Roman Empire or the pre-revolutionary tensions in 18th-century France, suggest that societies with declining social cohesion and rising inequality often face violent internal conflict.

Counterarguments might claim that wealthy democracies are inherently stable due to their economic resources and democratic institutions. However, Betz counters this by noting that affluence does not immunise against collapse when social contracts break down. The 2021 U.S. Capitol riot and the 2024 French rail sabotage show that even advanced democracies are vulnerable to internal disruption when trust evaporates. The assumption of stability ignores the "sweet spot" for civil conflict: societies with moderate fragmentation, where a once-dominant majority feels displaced, and disaffected counter-elites exploit the resulting instability.

Christensen highlights Betz's use of the Centre for Migration Control's 2025 report, which found migrants, comprising 9% of the UK population, accounted for 16.1% of arrests in 2024, with disproportionately high rates for serious crimes like sexual offenses. These statistics, while controversial, are consistent with broader European trends. For example, a 2023 German Federal Police report noted that non-citizens, 14% of the population, were suspects in 34% of violent crimes. Such data fuels public resentment, deepening tribal fractures and rightly empowering populist movements.

Betz argues that multiculturalism, rather than fostering unity, has often led to cultural erasure and resentment, particularly when native populations feel their identity is suppressed while others are celebrated. This echoes Ibn Khaldun's 14th-century theory of civilisational decline, where loss of "asabiyyah" (group cohesion) precipitates collapse. The toppling of statues, from Confederate monuments in the U.S. to colonial figures in Europe, symbolises this cultural erasure, which Betz warns could escalate into iconoclastic destruction akin to the Spanish Civil War or the Taliban's demolition of the Bamiyan Buddhas.

Critics might argue that migration-driven diversity strengthens societies by fostering innovation and economic growth. While diversity can yield benefits, the collapseology thesis emphasises the risks of rapid, unmanaged demographic change in already strained systems. The 2015 European migrant crisis, for instance, correlated with spikes in crime and social unrest in countries like Sweden and Germany, undermining public trust. When elites suppress discussion of these issues, through censorship or accusations of "hate," they exacerbate the expectation gap between promised prosperity and lived reality, a key driver of revolutionary sentiment.

Economic factors are a cornerstone of the collapseology thesis. Betz and Christensen point to deindustrialisation, stagnant wages, housing crises, and skyrocketing debt as creating an "expectation gap" where citizens' lived experiences fall short of promised prosperity. For example, in the UK, real wages have stagnated since 2008, while housing costs have risen 50% in major cities over the same period. In the U.S., household debt reached $17.5 trillion in 2024, with 40% of Americans unable to cover a $400 emergency expense without borrowing. This economic precarity mirrors pre-revolutionary conditions in historical cases, such as France in 1789 or Russia in 1917, where economic despair fuelled mass unrest.

Betz's thesis aligns with scholars like Jack Goldstone, who argue that revolutions arise when economic stagnation combines with elite overreach and demographic pressures. The West's aging populations and below-replacement fertility rates, 1.5 in the EU, 1.6 in the U.S., exacerbate these pressures, straining welfare systems and creating competition for resources. Meanwhile, mass immigration, intended to offset demographic decline, often intensifies social tensions when integration fails, as evidenced by the migrant crime statistics cited above.

Opponents might argue that economic downturns are cyclical and that Western economies have weathered worse crises, like the Great Depression. However, the current convergence of deindustrialisation, debt, and demographic shifts is unprecedented in its scale and speed. Unlike past recoveries, today's globalised economy faces unique vulnerabilities, such as supply chain disruptions seen during the 2020-2022 plandemic and energy crises triggered by geopolitical conflicts. These systemic weaknesses amplify the risk of collapse.

Betz's most chilling argument is the vulnerability of critical infrastructure, power grids, pipelines, and communication networks, which are "soft targets" for sabotage. The 2024 Paris rail attacks and Heathrow's 1,300 flight cancellations due to a power station fire illustrate how easily urban systems can be disrupted. In the U.S., the 2023 attack on North Carolina's power grid, which left 40,000 homes without electricity, shows that even small-scale sabotage can have outsized impacts. Betz warns that rural communities, alienated by urban-centric policies, could target these systems, triggering a cascading collapse.

This aligns with historical examples of infrastructure targeting in civil conflicts, such as the sabotage of railways during the American Civil War or power stations in apartheid-era South Africa. Modern infrastructure's complexity makes it even more vulnerable; a single failure in a gas compressor or transformer tower can paralyse entire regions. Betz's call for secure zones with energy, water, and airports underscores the strategic reality: without defensible infrastructure, urban collapse is inevitable.

Critics might argue that governments can harden infrastructure through increased security or redundancy. However, the scale of the challenge, thousands of kilometres of unguarded pipelines, rural substations protected only by chain-link fences, makes comprehensive defence impractical. Budget constraints and political denial further limit proactive measures, leaving the West exposed to what Betz calls "one angry man with a 4WD and a grudge".

The collapseology thesis extends beyond domestic conflict to global security. Betz warns that civil war in nuclear-armed Western states could destabilise protocols for securing nuclear arsenals. The Soviet Union's near-collapse in 1991, when nuclear weapons were briefly at risk, offers a sobering precedent. With NATO countries like the U.S., UK, and France possessing over 6,000 nuclear warheads, internal chaos could have catastrophic global consequences. Even non-nuclear states could see conventional weapons fall into rogue hands, as seen in Libya's 2011 collapse.

Sceptics might argue that nuclear safeguards are robust, with multiple fail-safes. However, civil war scenarios, where command structures fracture and loyalties shift, could undermine these systems. The 2021 U.S. Capitol riot, while not a nuclear event, exposed how quickly institutional control can falter under internal pressure.

The collapseology thesis is not mere fearmongering but a synthesis of civil war theory and historical cycles. Scholars like Barbara Walter and Paul Staniland argue that civil wars arise in societies with moderate fragmentation, where a declining majority feels threatened, and counter-elites exploit grievances. The West fits this profile: declining native populations, rising identity politics, and populist leaders challenging elite dominance. Ibn Khaldun's cyclical theory of civilisations, cited by Betz, further supports this, suggesting that societies lose cohesion when elites become decadent and disconnected.

Historical examples abound. The Roman Empire's fall was preceded by urban decay, economic stagnation, and barbarian integration failures. The French Revolution erupted from economic crises and elite denial. The American Civil War, while unique, stemmed from irreconcilable cultural and economic divides. Today's West, with its urban-rural divides, cultural erosion, and economic despair, mirrors these conditions.

Critics might argue that the collapseology thesis overstates risks, pointing to the West's resilience through past crises like World War II or the Cold War. However, those periods saw stronger social cohesion and shared national purpose, qualities eroded by today's identity politics and distrust. Others might claim that technology and global integration make collapse unlikely. Yet, technology amplifies vulnerabilities, cyberattacks, misinformation, and infrastructure dependence, while globalisation exacerbates economic inequality and cultural fragmentation.

Some might dismiss Betz and Christensen as alarmists, arguing that civil war is too extreme an outcome for modern democracies. But Betz's reliance on mainstream data, British social attitudes, crime statistics, infrastructure reports, grounds his warnings in reality. The 4% annual probability of civil war in fragile states, translating to an 87% chance of at least one major Western collapse within five years, is a statistical wake-up call, not hyperbole.

Christensen and Betz's collapseology thesis is a compelling warning rooted in data, theory, and history. The West faces a perfect storm: feral cities, fractured social contracts, vulnerable infrastructure, and economic despair, all exacerbated by elite denial and cultural erosion. While collapse is not inevitable, the conditions for it are occurring. To avert this, governments must rebuild trust through transparent governance, secure critical infrastructure, and address the expectation gap with economic and cultural renewal. Failure to act risks a future where, as Christensen paints, skylines are marked by bodies and ash, and survival replaces salvation as the daily prayer.

The question is not whether the West can collapse, it is whether we can act before it does. History suggests we are running out of time.

https://nationfirst.substack.com/p/civil-war-will-the-west-implode

"CIVIL WAR: Will the West Implode?

Nation First looks into how the West's cities could collapse from within—and why it may have already begun.

Morning, London, 2030:

You wake drenched in sweat, heart hammering. Heat? No. The thermostats died six days ago. It's the silence now: strained, brittle, waiting to snap.

No power. No kettle. No phones. Your neighbour's generator — once a dawn lifeline — is a charred husk from last night's molotov ambush. You peer through the battered curtains. On every street lamp, new flags wave: "Community Defence Force," writ in Arabic, Polish, and fractured English.

From the depths of the tower blocks, a sharp crack of gunfire… then a woman's scream, electric and unfiltered. You don't recognise the voice. Boots thunder in your stairwell. Then silence.

Your phone finally chirps. It's a stale, cached Public Service Announcement: "We're all in this together." But the fibre-optic cut has frozen any live feed, again.

Downstairs, someone scrawled in crimson "YOU LOST." It's written in either blood or rust. You don't need to know which.

The corner shop is a ghost ship; bare shelves, shattered windows. You've got two tins of beans left and no certainty what comes next.

So you breathe deep, slow. Don't panic. Don't cry. Do what everyone in a feral city now knows: stay hidden, stay moving, trust no one.

How did it come to this?

And how much worse is coming.Bottom of Form

The West's cities are becoming "feral," with collapsing trust, fractured policing, rising militias, and a population split into hostile tribal enclaves.

Civil war theory, combined with escalating sabotage, migrant crime data, and elite denial, paints a credible picture of looming collapse.

Modern urban life depends on fragile, undefended infrastructure. Betz shows how easily this can be exploited to shatter national cohesion.

Cultural erasure, mass displacement, and nuclear insecurity are not future risks; they're present dangers as the old order unravels.

The failure of multiculturalism, economic decay, and a growing expectation gap are driving Western societies to the brink of revolution.

Civil War Comes to Our Streets

These aren't scenes from a post‐apocalyptic film. They're grim pulp‑novel snapshots of what David Betz, Professor of War in the Modern World at King's College London, now warns could be our future in a new essay just published in Military Strategy Magazine.

This is not Betz's first warning. In 2023, he released another largely overlooked essay titled Civil War Comes to the West. In that essay, he called out the hubris of European elites, likening Western civilisation to a "garden" surrounded by a global "jungle," and argued that view is dangerously false.

He traced civil war causes to structural decline: fractious multiculturalism, a collapse of social trust — what he cites as a deep erosion of "social capital" — and elite cowardice unable to successfully integrate or govern. Betz warned that digital echo‑chambers magnify identity-political divisions, and living‑expectation gaps — rising costs, stagnant wages, deindustrialization — fuel a volatile mix. By drawing on robust civil war theory and historical parallels, he convincingly rejected the idea that wealthy democracies are immune. Instead, he argued, the West is verging on conditions nearly ideal for civil breakup.

Now, with fresh data and visible unraveling, his second essay escalates the warning: the West's largest cities — London, Paris, Berlin — are sliding toward "feral" status, marked by no-go zones, private militias, fragmented policing, and a rising underclass of radicalised outsiders and angry insiders. Trust in government has evaporated. The social contract is shattered. And Betz argues that rural communities — already estranged — may soon retaliate by attacking urban infrastructure: fibre lines, pipelines, power grids, food convoys.

It's already begun. In July 2024, coordinated arson crippled France's high-speed rail network during the Olympics. London saw mass sabotage of ULEZ surveillance cameras by "Blade Runners." Heathrow Airport lost 1,300 flights after a key power station fire. Elite comms infrastructure was deliberately targeted in Paris and Marseille.

These are not accidents.

Betz cites the shocking vulnerability of critical infrastructure: gas compressors in rural zones, Major Accident Hazard Pipelines, transformer towers, all virtually unguarded. It wouldn't take a military. Just one angry man with a 4WD and a grudge.

Migrant Crime: Fuel on the Fire

If proof was needed for Betz's predictions, it came in January 2025, when the Centre for Migration Control released its first full national migrant-crime report.

The findings were volcanic:

Migrants make up ~9% of the population but accounted for 16.1% of all arrests in 2024.

Their arrest rate: 24 per 1,000, double that of British-born citizens (12 per 1,000).

Sexual offences: 165 vs 48 per 100,000—a 3.5× higher rate.

Over 9,000 migrant sex-offence arrests in 10 months; 26% of the total.

In the City of London: migrants made up 67% of sex-crime arrests.

Afghans are 22× more likely, Eritreans 20×, Albanians 30× more likely to be convicted of sex crimes. Overall, migrants are 71% more likely than Brits to be convicted.

The most overrepresented groups? Albanians, Afghans, Iraqis, Somalis, Algerians; 48 nationalities had higher arrest rates than the native population.

This isn't "hate." It's statistical truth. It's what ordinary people see but elites suppress.

It's also the accelerant for a brewing fire. What Betz describes as tribal fracture lines are being deepened by migrant-related crime, and a political class too cowardly to name it. The people will.Bottom of Form

Into That Breach: War in the Making

Betz doesn't just wave the red flag. He maps the battlefield. What does civil war look like in the modern West?

1.Feral Cities & Urban Unravelling
Cities fracture. Racial enclaves, identity policing, gated zones. Betz predicts full collapse in several capitals within five years.

2.Iconoclasm & Cultural Erasure
Civil wars destroy memory. In Spain, churches were burned. The Taliban razed the Bamiyan Buddhas. Western statues fall already. Betz warns governments must catalogue, secure, or hide their treasures. Britain did it in WWII. They may need to again.

3.Secure Zones & Mass Flight
As cities burn, Betz calls for designated safe zones with energy, airports, clean water. These aren't luxuries. They're lifeboats.

4.Nukes in the Rubble
The USSR nearly collapsed with nukes in hand. The West has more nuclear states and less unity. Protocols must be locked down before they're tested in the fire.

The Strategic Logic of Collapse

Betz reveals what every revolutionary and radical already knows: the cities are soft targets. Collapse them, and you collapse the system.

French leftists wrote in 2007:
"The streets teem with incivilities. The infrastructure is vulnerable… flows of power and data can be attacked."

Betz doesn't quote them to praise. He quotes them because they understand what our leaders ignore.

He exposes the failure of multiculturalism: where pride is allowed for every tribe except the one that built the country. That's not diversity. It's sabotage.

The demographic split is also geographic. Cities are hyper-diverse. The countryside? Still grounded. That's why Betz foresees an urban-rural war, fought with sabotage, siege, and tribal lines. Think it's fantasy? Then explain why the infrastructure keeping your fridge running is still one bloke with a clipboard and a chain-link fence.

Expectations, Economics & the Trigger

Betz also slams the economics:

Deindustrialisation

Immigration-fuelled housing crises

Skyrocketing debt

A collapsing middle class

He warns of the "expectation gap" between what people were promised and what they live. That's where revolutions are born.

Scholars say there's a 4% annual chance of civil war in nations with the right conditions. That's an 87% chance of at least one major Western country breaking within five years. When one goes, others follow.

Evening, London, 2030:

A body swings from a shattered Southbank overpass. No one stops. It's part of the skyline now.

You move past merc truck convoys; no insignia, all weapons. Their guns are hunched, hungry.

The Thames, black with ash and diesel. The London Eye? Gone. Just rusted steel bingeing on its own collapse.

A church bell tolls… not for Mass, but to signal death. A boy warms a dog by barrel flame. Above, a jellyfish drone hums, watching you.

In the distance, the M25 glitters with UN trucks: another "secure zone" evacuated. Refugees trail behind, a line of grief.

You clutch a crucifix close because this night demands prayer.
Not for salvation.
But for survival.

Civil war isn't coming. It's already here.
The only question is whether we act—

Or vanish into history with the rest."