The Cheap Green Electricity Myth: Unmasking the Hidden Costs of the Renewable Revolution, By James Reed and Brian Simpson

Politicians and activists love to sell solar panels and wind turbines as the heroes of a low-cost, planet-saving saga. "Renewables are cheaper than fossil fuels!" they proclaim, citing plummeting panel prices and sunny spreadsheets from outfits like IRENA, which in July 2025 declared that 91% of new renewable projects undercut fossil alternatives. On paper, it's seductive: Solar PV at $0.043/kWh, onshore wind at $0.034/kWh — 41% and 53% below the cheapest gas peaker. Global savings from renewables hit $409 billion in 2023 alone, we're told, with battery costs down 93% since 2010. Why wouldn't we rush to net zero?

But peel back the glossy reports, and the plot twists. A November 19, 2025, analysis from Blackout News, drawing on agrarheute data, shatters the fairy tale: "The narrative of cheap green electricity is shattering in the face of international data." Countries chasing aggressive renewable targets aren't basking in bargain basements; they're paying premium prices for power that's anything but predictable. Germany's households shell out ~40 cents/kWh, the world's highest, despite sinking €500 billion into Energiewende since 2000. Denmark, Spain, and the Netherlands? All high on wind and solar, all crushed by tariffs 2-3x the U.S. average. The dirty secret? Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) metrics hyped by greens ignore the full-system hangover: intermittency, backups, and a web of subsidies that make "free" sun and wind the priciest party crashers.

This isn't anti-green heresy; it's arithmetic. As economist Bjorn Lomborg tweeted in January 2025: "The cheap green lie... cramming in more solar and wind just makes power more and more costly because solar and wind are worthless when not sunny and windy." Echoing the "mass immigration madness," where short-term optics mask long-term strains, the green rush prioritises virtue signals over viable grids. Here we examine the hidden toll, from Europe's bill shock to the global scramble for "dispatchable" reality checks.

Proponents lean hard on LCOE, which tallies build-and-run costs over a project's life, assuming renewables hum along at capacity. IRENA's 2025 report glows: Renewables added 582 GW in 2024, dodging $467 billion in fossil fuel bills. Solar's down 75% since 2014; wind's no slouch. Fair enough — for a sunny afternoon.

But LCOE is a solo act. It skips the ensemble: When the wind dies (as it did across Europe in winter 2024/25, dropping renewables below 10% of demand), you fire up gas plants or spill excess power during overproduction. Enter Levelized Full System Cost of Electricity (LFSCOE), which factors in backups, storage, and grid tweaks. Studies peg it at 2-3x LCOE for high-renewable grids. Meteorologist Chris Martz crunched IEA data in February 2025: Nations with 20%+ solar/wind penetration pay 20-40 cents/kWh; low-renewable peers like the U.S. (13% share) hover at 10-15 cents.

Data: IEA/Ember 2025; Blackout News. Note: Prices incl. taxes/subsidies; U.S. avg. masks state variances (CA: 28¢ vs. TX: 12¢).

No "high-green, low-cost" outliers exist. As Martz notes, "More solar and wind increase electricity prices." Europe's 2025 mid-year review? Renewables hit 34% global share, overtaking coal, but emissions dipped just 12 MtCO2 amid 2.6% demand growth, thanks to fossil crutches.

Hidden Cost #1: The Backup Ballet — Intermittency's $Trillion Tab

Wind and solar are intermittent divas: Solar peaks midday, wind at night, rarely together. Germany's 2024/25 winter calm? Renewables cratered, forcing coal restarts and €10B in spot-market spikes. Globally, IRENA admits grid integration adds $5-15/MWh; peanuts next to fossil externalities ($100-200/MWh for coal pollution). But scale it: The U.S. needs $2.5T in grid upgrades by 2035 for renewables; Europe's already €100B deep.

Batteries? A band-aid. Costs fell to $192/kWh in 2024, but Germany's fleet covers ~1 hour of demand, nowhere near the 8-12 hours for full buffering. X users like @safcpete67 nail it: "Factor in CFD costs, constraint costs, storage... These are the next 20-year costs." Overbuilding (2-3x capacity) jacks material needs; China controls 80% of rare earths, inflating supply chains amid tariffs.

Hidden Cost #2: The Subsidy Shadow — Who Foots the Free Lunch?

Fossil subsidies? $620B globally in 2023. Renewables? Just $70B — on paper. But that's explicit; implicit costs (lost fossil revenue, taxpayer-backed guarantees) balloon to trillions. The UK's CfD scheme? £20B+ locked in for offshore wind, even if prices crash. Germany's EEG surcharge: €30B/year, baked into bills.

Developing worlds see through it. China adds 300 GW solar yearly but pairs it with coal for "supply security and low costs." India's coal baseload keeps tariffs at 7¢/kWh; Bangladesh dodges EU-style shocks via gas. As Lomborg quips, "If renewables are so cheap, why the endless taxpayer bailouts?"

The Global Reckoning: From Blackouts to Balanced Bets

By December 2025, the cracks are seismic. California's 28¢/kWh (high solar) vs. Texas' 12¢ (gas/oil mix) tells the tale. Ember's mid-2025 review: Renewables grew 7.7%, but fossils filled the gaps. Trump's DOE axed a $10B grid upgrade in July, citing the "green scam" — even as IRENA begged for resilience.

The fix? Hybrids, not holy wars. Nuclear revival (costs stable at 6-9¢/kWh), geothermal scaling, and smart demand-response could slash intermittency without subsidy bloat. But ditching the myth means facing facts: Green energy's "cheap" only if you ignore the bill.

As @wattsupwiththat warned in August 2025: "The ongoing fiction of cheap wind and solar." In a world of rising demand (AI data centres, EVs), affordability trumps applause. Australia, time to rewrite the script, embrace energy pluralism, especially fossil fuels, before the lights flicker out.

https://blackout-news.de/en/news/the-narrative-of-cheap-green-electricity-is-shattering-in-the-face-of-international-data/