The Bioweapons Threat of the “Deranged Loner” By Brian Simpson
Leading elder statesman British scientist Lord Rees, has recently commented upon one of the lesser discussed threats from bioweapons. The present debate has rightly focused upon state players, but technological advances have now meant that it is now possible for deranged loners, trained in genetic engineering, with a lab, to create bioweapons. Perhaps they could be aided in this quest of destruction by advances in artificial intelligence as well. Lord Rees just mentioned this possibility without specifying details of how it could happen, but we can suppose that the biotech situation is much like in the hacking world, where lone hackers, and small teams have already done enormous damage.
It should also be remembered that an early case of bioweapons terrorism already occurred in Australia, with theJapanese-based Aum Shinrikyo, Aum Supreme Truth, conducting experiments in outback Australia, completely undetected, which led to the development of sarin gas,used in the Tokyo subway attack in 1995. In 1993, Aum tested its sarin on sheep at Banjawarn Station, a remote pastoral property in Western Australia, killing 29 sheep. Thus, if this group could do this, we would expect with modern technological developments, much worse today.
It is far from clear what could be done to prevent such developments, and there is no doubt that if one such attack occurs, this would motivate the state to move to even more oppressive surveillance technology.
"A "deranged loner" could easily unleash a pandemic on the world with a homemade lab and off-the-shelf equipment, one of Britain's most eminent scientists has warned.
Laboratories, equipment and expertise are becoming increasingly available globally due to the democratisation of science, with security experts cautioning that acts of bioterrorism are a concern of the same magnitude as chemical or nuclear warfare.
Lord Rees, the Astronomer Royal, cautioned that developments in biotechnology have made it easy for rogue actors to obtain, manipulate and enhance a pathogen.
Speaking in the House of Lords during a debate on biosecurity, Lord Rees, who is co-founder of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, said that the world's experience with Covid-19 "is not the worst that could happen".
He described the origin of the pandemic as "controversial" and said it "cannot be ruled out" that the virus leaked from the laboratory of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China.
"We cannot rule out lab leakages in the future," he added.
"There is surely a case for enhancing security and independent monitoring of level four labs around the world which are researching these lethal pathogens.
"And, more importantly, ensuring that experiments on lethal pathogens are not done in less-secure labs."
The comments follow an investigation by The Telegraph which revealed laboratory leaks and accidents have risen by 50 per cent in Britain since Covid-19 emerged.
Nightmare scenario
Lord Rees said the unpredictable nature of pandemics, including a lack of control over who becomes infected, means "governments and terrorist groups" will avoid deliberately creating "engineered pandemics".
"The real nightmare will be a deranged loner with biotech expertise, who does not care who becomes infected or how many," the scientist said.
"In contrast to the elaborate, conspicuous equipment needed to create a nuclear weapon, which can feasibly be monitored by international inspectors, biotech involves small-scale, dual-use technology that will become easily accessible.
"There are thousands of academic and industrial labs around the world where dangerous pathogens are being studied and modified. An increasing number of individuals will acquire the requisite expertise.
"The dangers are looming ever larger; regulation of biotech is needed ever more today... This is the stuff of nightmares.
"The rising empowerment of malign, tech-savvy groups, or even individuals, by biotech will pose an intractable challenge to governments and aggravate the tensions between freedom, privacy and security."
Lord Rees said the moral and practical challenges of tackling such a nascent field has left the world's authorities unprepared. He said biotech has "stupendous potential" which could just as likely endanger humanity itself as help society flourish.
"We must hope that vaccines and antidotes become ever more effective and speedily produced, in step with the growing threat," Lord Rees said.
"The UK can indeed achieve influence in what has to be a global programme."
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