The Baby Bust of the West By James Reed

The "baby bust," the crashing fertility of almost all developed societies, looms as a major issue. Thus, in Western Europe the number of children born to women is predicted to fall to 1.44 by 2050. A total fertility of 2.1 is needed to maintain a steady population without immigration. South Korea is even worse, and China has admitted that its attempts to increase fertility have failed. This birth dearth is now being pushed by the mass immigration lobby as a reason for increased immigration. And the source countries will be the Third World, particularly Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for one in every two children born on the planet by the end of the century, assuming no collapse. The elites propose that society will need to be completely reorganised to accommodate this. But why should that be, as these globo commo champions of the idea there are no difference between human groups, should not see any problem in the Great Replacement, as people would be completely interchangeable?

Articles at this blog have criticised this, first pointing out that it is highly unlikely that advanced techno-industrial societies would be continued if the population is to be replaced by the Third World, given low IQ levels. Social functioning, especially in technology requires that the average IQ of populations not fall to levels seen in these Third World countries, which is not to put these people down in any way; it is what it is. The test case has been immigration to Western Europe from such places that has led to crime, enclaves, no-go zones, and mass unemployment. The whole thing will lead to social collapse even sooner than the birth dearth problem. And, as discussed at the blog today, there will be a strong populist backlash against such mass immigration given its effects upon the standard of living. As AI will render most jobs for humans redundant, even with as falling population, there will be no need for migrants.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/west-faces-baby-bust-tumbling-094655583.html

"Most countries in the world face having a shrinking population by the middle of the century due to "tumbling" fertility rates, according to new research.

In Western Europe, the total fertility rate – the average number of children born to women of childbearing age – is predicted to be 1.44 in 2050, dropping to 1.37 in 2100.

In the UK, the total fertility rate was 2.19 in 1950, dropping to 1.85 in 1980 and then 1.49 in 2021.

That is well below the rate of 2.1 needed to maintain a steady population without significant immigration.

By 2050, the UK's total fertility rate is predicted to be 1.38, dropping to 1.30 by 2100.

By 2100, more than 97% of countries – 198 out of 204 – will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time, according to the study in The Lancet released on Wednesday.

The analysis in the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors study predicts that sub-Saharan Africa will account for one in every two children born on the planet by the end of the century.

These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies

Dr Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author

The researchers said the findings pose "serious challenges" to global economic growth, especially in the midst of a shrinking workforce and ageing populations.

They said that for countries with low fertility rates, social policies such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare, and extra employment rights may provide a small boost but most nations would remain below the levels needed to sustain their populations.

Dr Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author and lead research scientist from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine in the US, said: "The implications are immense.

"These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power and will necessitate reorganising societies."

The world will be simultaneously tackling a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others

Professor Stein Emil Vollset, senior author

Senior author Professor Stein Emil Vollset, from the IHME, said: "We are facing staggering social change through the 21st century.

"The world will be simultaneously tackling a 'baby boom' in some countries and a 'baby bust' in others."

The analysis predicts Niger would hold the top spot in 2050 for the highest fertility rate, with an average of five children for each woman, but this could come down to 2.7 children if universal education targets were met.

South Korea would have the worst fertility rate by the middle of the century with 0.82 children per female, according to the analysis.

The global total fertility rate has more than halved over the past 70 years, from around five children for each woman in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021, the researchers said.

They said it will be important for countries with low fertility rates to implement policies "that support those who wish to have children and offer additional benefits to society such as better quality of life and greater participation of women in the workforce, alongside open immigration policies".

Dr Bhattacharjee said: "There's no silver bullet.

"Social policies to improve birth rates such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare, financial incentives, and extra employment rights, may provide a small boost to fertility rates, but most countries will remain below replacement levels.

There is very real concern that, in the face of declining populations and no clear solutions, some countries might justify more draconian measures that limit reproductive rights

Dr Natalia V Bhattacharjee, co-lead author

"And once nearly every country's population is shrinking, reliance on open immigration will become necessary to sustain economic growth.

"Sub-Saharan African countries have a vital resource that ageing societies are losing – a youthful population."

She added: "There is very real concern that, in the face of declining populations and no clear solutions, some countries might justify more draconian measures that limit reproductive rights.

"It is well established that nations with strong women's rights are more likely to have better health outcomes and faster economic growth.

"It is imperative women's rights are promoted and protected and that women are supported in having the number of children they wish and pursuing their careers."

Yes, but if feminism and women's liberation lead to the collapse of the West, how was this a good thing? Note that if liberal democracy falls, as will occur with population replacement, feminism and women's rights go as well, and the whole modernity thing was for nothing. This is the herd of elephants in the room that the intellectuals are not discussing.