Statistically Implausible By Brian Simpson
I have been recording everything I have seen where mathematicians critique the US election results. Here is the latest:
“Patrick Basham, founder of research organization the Democracy Institute, broke down the “implausibility” of Joe Biden’s presumed presidential victory for Fox News, as Donald Trump continues to insist there’s “no way” he lost.
Joe Biden’s apparent victory over the incumbent Trump is “statistically implausible,” Basham told Mark Levin on Sunday night during ‘Life, Liberty & Levin’, describing a lot of processes that went against all expectations during the elections.
He says that the Democrat defied the “non-polling metrics,” which Basham claims have “a 100 percent accuracy rate,” including “how the candidates did in their respective presidential primaries, the number of individual donations, [and] how much enthusiasm each candidate generated in the opinion polls.”
Trump, who with over 74 million votes is considered to have the second-best performance of any candidate in history (as Biden is said to have over 80 million), has alleged that fraudulent ballots in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Georgia led to Biden’s apparent victory. Basham cited a “historically low ballot rejection rate” as a possible factor behind the president losing reelection.
“Rejection rates, which in the primaries earlier this year were well into the double-digits and which historically have often been very, very high in these key swing states, or at least in the key swing counties, we're seeing rejection rates of less than one percent, often very close to to zero,” he said.
With a major increase in absentee ballots due to the Covid-19 pandemic, it is “implausible,” based on voter experience in the area, that so few ballots would be rejected, Basham theorized.
Also shedding a questionable light on Biden’s victory, the pollster added, is Trump’s own performance, which was unusually strong for an incumbent candidate.
“If you look at the results, you see how Donald Trump improved his national performance over 2016 by almost 20 percent,” he said. “No incumbent president has ever lost a reelection bid if he's increased his votes [total]. Obama went down by three and a half million votes between 2008 and 2012, but still won comfortably.”
President Trump reacted to Basham’s Fox segment, seemingly citing it as further ‘evidence’ of his supposed win.
“So true!” he tweeted. “No way we lost this election!”