Social Science as Sorcery By Brian Simpson

I imagine that it would be possible to fill a large book on the shaky stuff pouring out of the social sciences, and epidemiology, much over the Covid business. Take a study which alleged that unvaccinated people are more likely to have car crashes! Here is the abstract, from the high-ranking American Journal of Medicine, with a critique to follow:

https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(22)00822-1/fulltext

Abstract

Background

Coronavirus disease (COVID) vaccine hesitancy is a reflection of psychology that might also contribute to traffic safety. We tested whether COVID vaccination was associated with the risks of a traffic crash.

Methods

We conducted a population-based longitudinal cohort analysis of adults and determined COVID vaccination status through linkages to individual electronic medical records. Traffic crashes requiring emergency medical care were subsequently identified by multicenter outcome ascertainment of all hospitals in the region over a 1-month follow-up interval (178 separate centers).

Results

A total of 11,270,763 individuals were included, of whom 16% had not received a COVID vaccine and 84% had received a COVID vaccine. The cohort accounted for 6682 traffic crashes during follow-up. Unvaccinated individuals accounted for 1682 traffic crashes (25%), equal to a 72% increased relative risk compared with those vaccinated (95% confidence interval, 63-82; P < 0.001). The increased traffic risks among unvaccinated individuals extended to diverse subgroups, was similar to the relative risk associated with sleep apnea, and was equal to a 48% increase after adjustment for age, sex, home location, socioeconomic status, and medical diagnoses (95% confidence interval, 40-57; P < 0.001). The increased risks extended across the spectrum of crash severity, appeared similar for Pfizer, Moderna, or other vaccines, and were validated in supplementary analyses of crossover cases, propensity scores, and additional controls.

Conclusions

These data suggest that COVID vaccine hesitancy is associated with significant increased risks of a traffic crash. An awareness of these risks might help to encourage more COVID vaccination.”

The methodological problem with this study, as most road transport workers would note, is that, as Ivor notes, the researchers did not consider that the unvaccinated people who are likely to be involved in road accidents, drive more miles because of heir profession, and did not need to be vaxxed, so the probability of an accident is not a product of the vaccine, but of time on the road, a much more plausible hypothesis. But is worth examining though, given heart attacks in airline pilots, is whether there is any trend yet of an increase in road crashes due to heart attacks in the vaxxed, or spike proteins in the brain.

https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/the-unvaccinated-had-more-car-crashes