“Reports of Death after Covid-19 Vaccination are Rare.” Discuss By Chris Knight (Florida)
Mathematician Jessica Rose addresses the response that one’s GP is likely to give to you when pushing the vax, and you mention adverse effects, oh, sure they occur, but are rare. But my guess is that if pressed further for more technical detail, their narrative would collapse, and I suppose you would get kicked out of the clinic, while still having to pay their fee of course. Jessica Rose examines the US VAERS data, and concludes: “Let’s assume that the URF [under-reporting factor] is lower than the lowest estimate of the URF that’s been done to date. It was calculated from Pfizer severe adverse event data and applies to severe adverse events. Let’s go with 30. Nice round number. Let’s also use their quoted estimate of 13,434 COVID-19 product associated deaths in VAERS. This would mean that 403,020 people had actually died if we use an URF of 30. This means that their statistic becomes 0.07%. That means that 7 out of every 10,000 individuals who get injected die. If we use the actual number of deaths reported to VAERS which is 29,481 (this includes spontaneous abortions), the URF of 30 gives us 884,430 and a death rate of 1/1,000. 1 in 1,000 individuals injected will die. That sounds serious.” And, it is.
“Reports of death after COVID-19 vaccination are rare.”
Are they? Ruh-roh. Well that depends on what you’re comparing the death rate to. The rate from previous years? The rate compared to other severe adverse event occurances? The rate compared to the rate of dying from being hit by a car when you walk out the injection location?
If we compare the death rates reported to VAERS in the context of all vaccines combined for the past 30 years, to the death rate in 2021 for the COVID-19 products only, we observe an over 10,000% increase in death reports. Granted, many doses of the COVID-19 injectable products have been doled out. But the combined amount of shots doled out for all vaccines combined is comparable to the number of doses doled out for the COVID-19 injectable products in the United States.
Let’s get specific and push the envelope a little bit to exclude all other vaccines (except the flu) in a little napkin math experiment.
According to the CDC, 193.8 million doses of flu vaccine have been distributed in the United States as of February 26, 2021 (for the 2020-2021 flu season): “the highest number of doses in a single flu season”.1 558 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines were administered in the United States from December 14, 2020, through March 21, 2022.2 This is 462 days. So, a flu season is a year (365 days), so I think it would be fair to assume that if 193.8 doses of flu vaccine were doled out in 365 days then ~245 million doses would be doled out in 462 days.
Let’s go with the assumption that we have 2.3 times more doses of COVID product doled out than for the flu for the same time period of 462 days. It would make sense then, that the rate of reporting in VAERS (for the same range of adverse events as reported for the flu, ahem) should be about twice for COVID than for flu, non? Twice as many doses, a proportional number of reporting, twice as many reports! Let’s check that.
As of today, March 25, 2022, according to the WONDER/CDC system, there are 1,696 different types of adverse events and 45,650 total adverse events reported to VAERS in the context of the 14 variations of flu vaccines. Also according to the WONDER/CDC system, there are 10,526 different types of adverse events and 5,368,444 total adverse events reported to VAERS in the context of the 3 variations of the COVID-19 products used in the United States. N.B. These counts do not represent the individuals who experienced an adverse event but the total number of events reported.
Napkin math drum-roll paleaseeeeeee…
- We have twice as many COVID shots than flu shots.
- We have 6.2 times as many types of adverse event types reported in the context of the COVID shots
- We have 117.6 times as many reports of adverse events in the context on the COVID shots.
So even though we omitted all the other vaccines (there are 82 other types!), we still have no comparison here with regard to the number of shots and the relationship to the number of adverse events occuring and being reported, and we certainly do not see the ‘anticipated’ doubling of the reports as we would have expected if the injection to adverse event ratio was proportional for flu and COVID products.
One more thing.
During this time, VAERS received 13,434 preliminary reports of death (0.0024%) among people who received a COVID-19 vaccine.
The CDC is well aware that VAERS suffers from under-reporting. So why are they not considering the under-reporting factor (URF) here? And what is the URF for death? Or for all the adverse events reported to VAERS like TTP, Guillain-Barré Syndrome, myocarditis and death?
Let’s assume that the URF is lower than the lowest estimate of the URF that’s been done to date. It was calculated from Pfizer severe adverse event data and applies to severe adverse events. Let’s go with 30. Nice round number. Let’s also use their quoted estimate of 13,434 COVID-19 product associated deaths in VAERS. This would mean that 403,020 people had actually died if we use an URF of 30. This means that their statistic becomes 0.07%. That means that 7 out of every 10,000 individuals who get injected die. If we use the actual number of deaths reported to VAERS which is 29,481 (this includes spontaneous abortions), the URF of 30 gives us 884,430 and a death rate of 1/1,000. 1 in 1,000 individuals injected will die. That sounds serious. Is it accurate? We don’t know yet. You feel lucky? Punk?
Do some pausation. Make a wellness station. In your nation. Fill it with creation. Curb devastation. Grow the thinking population. (Ben. ha.)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/season/faq-flu-season-2020-2021.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html
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