Reform UK’s “Reformquake” and Australia’s Potential Awakening, By Richard Miller (Londonistan)
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has sent shockwaves through British politics, claiming a historic victory in the 2025 English local elections. With 677 council seats, control of 10 local authorities, two mayoral races, and a parliamentary byelection win in Runcorn and Helsby, Farage's party has declared the end of Britain's century-long two-party dominance. Dubbed a "Reformquake," this surge has been hailed as a nationalist fight back against "woke" policies and unchecked immigration. But could this populist uprising inspire Australia to "wake up" and follow suit? Let's unpack what happened in England, why it resonates, and whether Australia's political soil is fertile for a similar movement.
On May 1, 2025, Reform UK, a Right-wing populist party led by Brexit architect Nigel Farage, achieved unprecedented success. The party won 677 of roughly 1,600 council seats, seized control of councils like Kent, Staffordshire, and Durham, and secured mayoral victories in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire. Most dramatically, Reform's Sarah Pochin won the Runcorn and Helsby byelection by a mere six votes, overturning a Labour majority of nearly 15,000. A BBC projection suggested that if these results reflected a general election, Reform would form the next UK government, leaving Labour and the Conservatives—Britain's political titans for a century—reeling.
Farage called this a "truly historic landmark," proclaiming the end of two-party politics. His campaign focused on national issues like immigration, cost-of-living frustrations, and opposition to "wasteful" council spending on climate change initiatives and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) programs. In a Durham victory speech, Farage warned council staff working on such initiatives to "seek alternative careers very quickly," echoing the U.S. "DOGE" push for government efficiency. He also vowed that Reform-controlled councils would resist central government efforts to house asylum seekers, citing public anger over migrants receiving "everything for free" while taxpayers struggle.
The results were a bloodbath for the establishment. The Conservatives lost over 676 seats, their worst local election performance ever, while Labour, despite holding some mayoral contests, shed seats and faced internal criticism from figures like Diane Abbott, who argued the party's "more of the same" approach alienated voters. YouGov's Dylan Difford noted that more seats changed hands than in any modern British local election, signalling a profound voter revolt.
Reform's appeal lay in its anti-establishment rhetoric. Voters, disillusioned with Labour's tax hikes and benefit cuts under Keir Starmer, and the Conservatives' post-Brexit disarray under Kemi Badenoch, flocked to Farage's promise of change. Immigration was a flashpoint: Reform capitalised on fears about small boat crossings and asylum seekers being prioritised for social housing, framing it as "unfair" and "irresponsible."
Reform's success reflects a broader populist wave. Founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, it evolved from a single-issue outfit to a broader nationalist platform, gaining 14.3% of the vote in the 2024 general election. Farage, a polarising yet charismatic figure, has tapped into a vein of discontent: distrust in mainstream parties, frustration with economic stagnation, and cultural anxieties over immigration. Opinion polls since 2024 have placed Reform ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, with a February 2025 YouGov poll showing it as the UK's most popular party.
The local elections were a perfect storm. Labour's rapid unpopularity—Starmer's government saw the fastest approval drop of any newly elected UK government—stemmed from austerity measures like cutting winter fuel payments for the elderly. The Conservatives, still licking wounds from their 2024 general election rout, haemorrhaged seats in their rural heartlands. Reform, unburdened by a governing record, positioned itself as the "party of the working man and woman," stealing Labour's Red Wall voters and Tory shire loyalists alike.
Farage's rhetoric, amplified by viral moments like filling potholes with flowers to highlight infrastructure neglect, resonated with voters fed up with perceived government incompetence. His pledge to slash council spending on "woke" initiatives like DEI and net-zero schemes tapped into a backlash against progressive policies, while his hardline stance on immigration—proposing a "minister for deportations"—galvanised those who feel Britain's identity is under threat.
This suggests hope that Australia might "wake up" to a similar nationalist push, inspired by Reform's rejection of progressive policies and immigration leniency. Australia shares some parallels with the UK: a history of Anglo-centric identity, growing multicultural diversity, and debates over immigration and social cohesion. But the political and cultural landscapes differ significantly, making a direct transplant of Reform's model uncertain.
Australia's demographic trajectory mirrors the UK's. The Australian Bureau of Statistics notes that 29.1% of Australians were born overseas, with over 50% having at least one parent born abroad. By the early 2030s, European-descended Australians may become a minority, driven by immigration from Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, and lower birth rates among Anglo-Australians. This shift has sparked debates about cultural identity, with some fearing a loss of "traditional" Australian values.
Immigration is a hot-button issue. Australia's net migration rate of 5.9 per 1,000 people, coupled with policies allowing high skilled and family-based migration, has fuelled housing shortages and economic pressures, much like the UK's migrant accommodation controversies. Public sentiment, as seen in posts on X, often echoes Farage's rhetoric, with users decrying "open borders" and demanding tighter controls.
Economic frustrations also align. Australia's cost-of-living crisis, with soaring energy bills and housing unaffordability, mirrors the UK's struggles. The Albanese Labor government, like Starmer's, faces criticism for failing to deliver tangible relief, potentially opening the door for populist challengers. The Liberal-National Coalition, akin to the Conservatives, struggles to regain traction after their 2022 federal election loss, leaving a vacuum for new voices.
Farage's attack on "woke" policies could find an audience in Australia, where debates over DEI, climate initiatives, and Indigenous recognition (e.g., the Voice referendum) have polarised voters. Pauline Hanson's One Nationalready channels similar anti-immigration and anti-establishment sentiments, polling at around 7% nationally. A figure like Farage—charismatic, media-savvy, and unapologetic—could amplify such a movement.
Despite these parallels, Australia's political system and culture pose challenges. First, Australia's compulsory voting and preferential voting system dilute the impact of protest votes. Unlike the UK's first-past-the-post system, which allowed Reform to win seats with concentrated support, Australia's system favours major parties (Labor and Liberal-National) and rewards preference deals. One Nation has struggled to convert its vote share into seats, winning only two in the 2022 federal election despite 4.96% of the primary vote.
Second, Australia's two-party dominance is entrenched. Labor and the Coalition have alternated power since World War II, with minor parties like the Greens or One Nation relegated to the margins. Reform's success hinged on exploiting a fractured political landscape, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens also gaining ground in 2025. Australia's political centre, bolstered by a strong economy historically, is less fragmented.
Third, Australia's immigration narrative differs. While the UK grapples with illegal boat crossings, Australia's offshore detention policy and strict border controls have largely neutralised the "invasion" rhetoric Farage wields. Public support for multiculturalism remains high if the surveys can be trusted—80% of Australians back cultural diversity in surveys—though tensions persist over integration and housing pressures. Expect that figure of support to drop when the penny drops in the brainwashed minds of dispossessed Whites.
Finally, Australia lacks a Farage equivalent. Hanson, while influential, is a polarising figure with less mainstream appeal. No single leader has yet united the disparate strands of nationalist, anti-woke, and economic discontent into a cohesive movement. Posts on X suggest appetite for such a figure, with some users calling for a "Reform Down Under," but no clear champion has emerged.
For Australia to "wake up," several factors could align:
Economic Deterioration: A deepening cost-of-living crisis or housing shortage could erode trust in Labor and the Coalition, boosting parties like One Nation or a new Reform-style outfit.
Cultural Backlash: Growing resistance to progressive policies—e.g., net-zero commitments or Indigenous land rights—could fuel a nationalist surge, especially if framed as elitist overreach.
Charismatic Leadership: A Farage-like figure, adept at media and grassroots campaigning, could galvanise voters. Clive Palmer's United Australia Party tried this in 2022 but flopped due to incoherent messaging.
Immigration Tensions: A spike in legal or illegal migration, coupled with strained public services, could shift sentiment against multiculturalism, as seen in some European nations.
The lead article today makes reference to Robert Putnam's work on diversity eroding social capital, and it adds a layer. Putnam's 2007 study found that diverse communities often experience lower trust and civic engagement, a dynamic that fuelled Farage's narrative of cultural erosion. In Australia, similar concerns underpin debates about multiculturalism's limits. If social cohesion weakens—say, due to economic strain or cultural silos—a nationalist movement could gain traction by promising to restore "unity." However, Australia's history of absorbing migrant waves, from post-war Europeans to recent Asians, suggests short term apathy in the land of the long weekend, a sloth that is likely to aid in the White race disappearing from the Australian continent in the longer term. Perhaps even the name "Australia" will go in a majority Chinese society of the future?
Reform UK's victories are a springboard for the 2029 UK general election, with Farage eyeing a national breakthrough. In Australia the 2028 election could be a flashpoint if economic and cultural tensions escalate, which they will. One Nation or a new party could emulate Reform by targeting outer-suburban and regional voters, where housing and job concerns intersect with cultural anxieties.
Yet, Reform's challenges offer a cautionary tale. Success brings scrutiny, and Farage's councils must now deliver on promises like cutting waste without disrupting services. Early missteps, like expelling councillors for fraud or failing to manage budgets, could dent credibility. Australia's equivalent would face similar tests, needing to balance populist rhetoric with competent governance—no easy feat in a system favouring established players.
Farage's "Reformquake" is a wake-up call for Britain, shattering the Labour-Conservative duopoly and giving voice to nationalist frustrations. Australia has the raw materials for a similar revolt: economic pressures, immigration debates, and unease with progressive policies. But its electoral system, cultural optimism, and lack of a unifying figure, make a direct parallel unlikely in the short term. If a charismatic leader emerges, and if Labor and the Coalition fumble their response to voter discontent, the 2030s could see Australia "wake up" to its own nationalist surge. For now, it's a spark waiting for kindling.
"Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has warned woke employees of English councils working on "climate change initiatives, or diversity" to seek alternate employment after his party won historic victories in Thursday's England elections.
Nigel Farage addressed supporters and election-winners on Friday night after the final results for over 1,600 elections across England came in, confirming his Reform UK party had undeniably won the day, stating: "I do genuinely believe what has happened yesterday the length and breadth of England is a truly historic landmark".
Reform won ten local authorities, two mayoralties, a byelection to Parliament, and 677 councillor seats.
State broadcaster the BBC said it had modelled the results onto a national projection and that had a General Election taken place on Thursday, Reform UK would be forming the next government of the United Kingdom, with both Labour and the Conservatives — who have utterly dominated British politics for a century — wiped out.
Farage, for his part, hailed a "Reformquake" and said this proved the era of the two-party state was over and that his Reform UK party is now here to stay. He said on Friday night that the elections " marks the end of two-party politics as we have known it for over a century in this country, it is finished, it is over, it is gone. That is a significant moment… I do genuinely believe what has happened yesterday the length and breadth of England is a truly historic landmark".
He called Reform the "agents of change… agents of optimism" and said: "I believe, as I think you believe, that we really will make history and win the next General Election".
The Reform campaign was perfectly open about treating these elections as a springboard for the next General Election, which at the latest will be in 2029, and consequently campaigned at times on national issues. Nevertheless, in his victory speech Farage pointed to areas where he intended to leave his mark on local government.
Echoing the U.S. 'DOGE' initiative to drive government efficiency, Mr Farage warned government employees in Councils Reform now controls, having gone from zero to ten yesterday, who work on "climate change initiatives, or diversity equity and inclusion" to seek "alternative careers".
One factor that repeatedly emerged in Reform candidates' reading of the public mood as they knocked on thousands of doors across England was disquiet over the government's handling of the migrant boat crisis, and the practice of placing these migrants in accommodation around the country at taxpayers' expense.
Farage hinted Reform councils would attempt to resist central government moves to plant migrants in the regions. He said: "our absolute desire to protect our borders, and the number of people who I met in the north who are just so enraged because they get up early in the morning, they go to work, they pay their taxes. And they see young men crossing the English Channel, being dumped into the north of England, getting everything for free.
"And once they're given indefinite leave to remain they go to the top of the social housing list. It is unfair, it is irresponsible, it is wrong in every way… We will resist central government plonking scores, hundreds, of young men in these counties that we now control".
While the Conservative Party and the governing Labour Party have had less to say in the wake of their drubbing at the ballot box, in both cases the pleas that they had now learnt their lessons appeared to imply anything but. Labour Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, for instance, said the lesson he had taken away from these elections is that the public want more of what his government is delivering and faster.
The Prime Minister said: ""What I want to say is, my response is we get it… I am determined that we will go further and faster…".
Given how well that has gone down at the ballot box this week, this response will doubtless be music to Mr Farage's ears.
Starmer was dinged from the left on this reaction, with party colleague Diane Abbott — very much the spiritual core of Labour's left-wing — refuting the further and faster line. She said in a statement: "Labour leadership saying the party will go further and faster in the same direction. They don't seem to understand that, it is our current direction that is the problem".
And further in interview: "Labour leadership seems to think that the answer to these catastrophic election results is more of the same, including cuts to winter fuel payments…. The Labour leadership should be listening to voters on winter fuel payments, welfare cuts, the cost of living, the NHS and energy bills. Instead, it is attacking our own voters."
Providing the first deeper insights into the data coming out of the vote was Yougov's Dylan Difford who illustrated the extraordinary nature of this week's election by demonstrating it to have not simply being part of the regular churn of elections. Rather, more seats changed hands on Thursday than any other set of local elections in modern British political history.
The Conservatives' performance was the "worst set of local election results for any party in British history", he said. While Labour on paper fared better in terms of seats lost, Difford disabused this notion too, observing their having performed so poorly in previous rounds in 2017 and 2021 means being already at rock-bottom, they simply had fewer seats to lose."
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