Problems for the NO Campaign? By James Reed
An article in The Australian says that the No campaign faces a threat from a low voter turnout, and an expected high level of informal votes. Well, we should not go to sleep, but as I understand it, voting is compulsory, so it will be no different than any election. Likewise, for informal votes, but really, all the punters need to be able to do is write “NO” in the box, so surely the campaign should educate the challenged about how to do this! Joking aside, I don’t think a convincing case has been made for a large number of informal No votes, but still, attention should be devoted to the issue.
“The No campaign’s path to victory in the Indigenous voice to parliament referendum is under threat from low voter turnout and a high number of informal votes, with polling revealing opponents are much less committed to attending a voting centre in October.
Senior No campaigners on Tuesday warned they were “extremely concerned about voter turnout”, while former prime minister John Howard urged anti-voice supporters to “maintain the rage”.
Anthony Albanese on Wednesday will announce the date of the referendum to enshrine a voice advisory body in the Constitution – expected to be October 14 – at the official Yes23 campaign launch in the northern Adelaide suburb of Elizabeth. The announcement will fire the starting gun on a campaign trail traversing the nation, millions of phone calls, texts and mailouts and a multimedia advertising blitz expected to exceed $100m.
Ahead of a six-week battle between the Yes and No campaigns, two new polls obtained by The Australian reveal the No campaign is on track to scuttle the voice, with a majority of voters in all states except Victoria opposing Labor’s referendum push.
Despite being ahead in Western Australia, Queensland, South Australia and NSW, a No campaign spokesman said “we must motivate people” to ensure swing voters and disgruntled supporters remain committed to their cause.
“It’s not just about it being a bad idea but about Australians understanding they have skin in the game and have to get out there and vote,” the spokesman said.
In a rallying cry to No voters, Mr Howard said “if you are intending to vote no, hold hard to that intention”.
“I think the case for voting Yes is very weak,” Mr Howard told Sky News. “I find it quite extraordinary that the Prime Minister and his colleagues are almost boasting about the fact that they haven’t explained it.
“I’m against the voice proposal. I don’t like anything that divides us according to race.
Whatever the government might say in the next six weeks, the truth is that any pronouncement of this body will have a coercive effect on the government of the day.”
Mr Albanese, who will launch the Yes campaign in front of more than 400 people including South Australia Premier Peter Malinauskas, Indigenous leader Noel Pearson, Yes campaign director Dean Parkin, Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Indigenous Australians Minister Linda Burney, said South Australia and the “whole of Australia” were critical to success.
Cabinet ministers, Greens MPs, crossbenchers, moderate Liberal MPs and Malcolm Turnbull will attend Yes23 events in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra, Perth and Launceston.
As revealed by The Australian on Monday, the Yes23 campaign is seeking to win over at least 38 per cent of the nation’s 4.6 million undecided voters. While the No campaign is targeting 3.5 million votes from three states to claim victory, the Yes side must secure 8.7 million votes across a majority of states.
Mr Albanese said he would return to South Australia, Western Australia and other battleground states multiple times to lock in support for the voice.
An SECNewgate Research Mood of the Nation survey, polling more than 1200 voters between August 16-21, found a majority 54 per cent of voters intended to vote No ahead of 46 per cent backing Yes. In line with Yes and No polling, the survey shows that easing the cost of living, health, crime, the economy and housing dominate the priorities for Australians.
The polls put the No vote ahead in South Australia (54-46 per cent), Queensland (63-37 per cent), WA (63-37), and NSW (52-48 per cent). About 68 per cent of voters aged 18-34 said they would vote Yes, compared with 32 per cent aged over 50.
SEC Newgate Research partner David Stolper said while the voice referendum looked in trouble, “we have identified an issue that could impact on the outcome, and that could be voter turnout”.
“The average stated likelihood to vote amongst Yes voters is quite high at 8.3 out of 10 but significantly lower amongst No voters at 5.4,” Mr Stolper said.
“A lower turnout could favour the Yes campaign and, as such, the contest may be slightly tighter than our voting intention results suggest.”
A second poll of 1000 voters, conducted by strategic insights business Pollinate this month, found a majority of Australians were expecting a No outcome “regardless of which way they vote”.
In a warning sign for the No campaign, which has raised concerns about apathy and low turnout, the poll revealed that 68 per cent of voters believed the referendum would be voted down.
The Pollinate survey says the proportion of people voting Yes is eroding, with 14 per cent switching their votes to No since Mr Albanese declared a referendum would be held.
The No campaign has now signed up 162,000 supporters. Around 10,000 have registered as active volunteers, hitting the phones, letterboxing and pledging support at prepolls and on referendum day.
While the No campaign is focused on WA, Queensland, Tasmania and SA, Yes23’s resources will be more dispersed, with western Sydney, South Australia, Tasmania and potentially Western Australia (at least in terms of the national vote) considered crucial to a Yes result.
Yes23 plans to maximise its vote in the most populous states of NSW and Victoria, believing it will have more manpower than the No campaign, expecting 40,000 volunteers by referendum day. Backed by Labor-unions resources and campaigning infrastructure, Yes23 is targeting multicultural communities in western Sydney.
The Australian understands Peter Dutton has no plans at this stage to appear at No rallies or make major speeches.”
Overall poor performance by the Leader of the Opposition; what opposition?
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