Out of Gas By Richard Miller (London)
It defies comprehension that Western European countries, dependent upon Russia for gas, done because it was thought to be the cheap option, now face the prospects of Russia turning off the tap, for good. What do they think would happen in the war that the neo-cons so desperately want, occurs? Surely, they do not believe that it will be business as usual! Clearly if you want to make war, get your energy independence sorted out first.
“Germany is bracing itself for a potentially permanent halt to the flow of Russian gas from Monday when maintenance work begins on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that brings the fuel to Europe’s largest economy via the Baltic Sea.
The work on the 759-mile (1,220km) pipeline is an annual event and requires the gas taps to be closed for 10 to 14 days. But never before in the pipeline’s decade-long history has Germany seriously been asking whether the flow will begin again.
Robert Habeck, Germany’s economy minister, has not shied away from addressing the government’s concerns. On Saturday, he spoke of the “nightmare scenario” that could occur.
“Everything is possible, everything can happen,” Habeck told the broadcaster Deutschlandfunk. “It could be that the gas flows again, maybe more than before. It can also be the case that nothing comes.
“We need to honestly prepare for the worst-case scenario and do our best to try to deal with the situation.”
Contingency plans are rapidly being drawn up across Germany, where there are genuine concerns that Moscow may use the opportunity to further weaponise gas as a lever against the west in its war with Ukraine and permanently turn off supplies.
Russian gas is vital to the running of Germany’s economy as well as keeping the majority of homes warm. Flows through the pipeline have been reduced in recent months and are at about 40% of the usual levels. Russia has blamed sanctions for the reduced flow, arguing they have hindered its access to spare parts.
On Saturday, Canada said after consultation with Germany and the International Energy Agency that it would issue a temporary exemption to sanctions against Russia in order to allow the return from Montreal of a repaired Russian turbine that is required for the maintenance work to be carried out.
On Friday, the Kremlin said it would increase gas supplies to Europe once the turbine was returned to Russia. Ukraine has objected to this, arguing it helps continue the continent’s dependency on Russian gas.
But Canada’s natural resources minister, Jonathan Wilkinson, said the permission is “time-limited” and will help “Europe’s ability to access reliable and affordable energy as they continue to transition away from Russian oil and gas”.
Since the start of the war in February, Germany has been working to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, including through the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) ports.
On Friday, emergency legislation completed its passage through both houses of parliament to allow the reactivation of mothballed coal power plants, despite their carbon intensity.
But the overall withdrawal process has been complex and slow.
The short-term goal is to attempt to replenish stocks in Germany’s gas storage facilities to last the winter. The most recent reading, released by the Federal Network Agency on Friday, showed storage facilities to be at 63% capacity. The goal is 90% by 1 November.
The longer-term target is to lessen dependency on gas by increasing the generation of renewable energy, in part by redefining the sectors as being of vital importance to national security.
German industry and households consume about two-thirds of the country’s gas supplies.
Plans are already in place to prioritise who would have access to gas in case of a cut. Hospitals and emergency services top the list, while households are ranked above most industrial concerns.
But on a more local level, as authorities battle with rising energy costs and the challenge of how to cope if households are left in the cold this winter, contingency plans are in place involving everything from shutting swimming pools, turning off street lamps and traffic lights, and housing citizens in industrial-scale dormitories. Not long ago destined for coronavirus patients, the makeshift containers have been described as “warm rooms” or “warmth islands”.
Meanwhile, demand for everything that heats without gas is at an unprecedented high, including electric and oil heaters, infrared panels and convectors, as well as basic camping stoves.
Installers of wood-burning ovens and heat pumps report long waiting lists and cite a chronic lack of parts, as well as a shortage of qualified personnel.”
https://www.rt.com/business/558723-france-russia-gas-cutoff-lemaire/
“French authorities are preparing for a complete suspension of gas supplies from Russia, according to the country’s Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, who sees such a full shutdown as the “most likely scenario.”
“I think that a total cutoff of Russian gas supplies is a real possibility ... and we need to prepare for this scenario,” Le Maire said, speaking on the sidelines of a conference in southern France, as cited by Reuters.
“It would be totally irresponsible to ignore this scenario,” he said. “We’re pretty much already there.”
According to the minister, the first line of defense is for households and businesses to reduce energy consumption, then the construction of new infrastructure like a floating plant that will be able to re-gasify shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from overseas.
Paris is also looking company-by-company to see which could be forced to scale back production capacities to save energy if necessary, Le Maire said.
importer of Russian LNG revealed
The French government has been preparing contingency plans despite the fact that the nation is less dependent on Russian gas supplies than other European countries. Some 17% of France’s total supply is reportedly coming from Russia.
Last week, the research carried out by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) revealed that France was the world’s largest importer of Russian liquefied natural gas in 2022. Data shows the nation’s short-term purchases of LNG, crude oil, and oil products were worth around €900 million ($940 million) in April-May.
Earlier this month, the Gazprom-affiliated Nord Stream AG said it would shut down the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a major conduit, for ten days for scheduled annual maintenance. The operator highlighted that the stoppage had previously been agreed with all partners.
Last month, the Russian energy giant slashed the volumes of gas delivered to Germany via the pipe by 60% due to operational challenges, caused by the failure to return a serviced turbine on time from Canada.”
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