On Attacking Iran, By James Reed

Imagine the moment the U.S. and Israel launch airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities—Natanz, Fordow, Parchin—targeting the 275kg of 60 percent enriched uranium that Rafael Grossi of the IAEA says could fuel multiple bombs if pushed to 90% percent. Michael Snyder: https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/why-does-hardly-anyone-seem-to-realize

warns this is coming soon, with President Trump's ultimatum to Ayatollah Khamenei—negotiate or face military action—met by Iran's flat refusal, as Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejects talks under sanctions. Iran knows the attack is looming; its air defenses have been drilling since January 2025 (Reuters), and its missile silos are stocked with Emad and Qadr-380s, capable of reaching 2,000km. Snyder predicts a ferocious response—missiles raining on Israeli cities like Tel Aviv and U.S. bases from Qatar's Al Udeid to Diego Garcia—far beyond the scale of Iraq or Afghanistan, given Iran's 8th-ranked military might. Social media rumours, cited by Snyder, claim Iran has warned Saudi Arabia that an attack means the end of U.S. regional bases and Israel's Dimona reactor, a threat echoing its October 2024 barrage of 180 missiles on Israel (NY Times).

This isn't just a regional spat—Iran's retaliation could ignite a firestorm. Its "Axis of Resistance"—Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraqi militias—might swarm into action, despite Hezbollah's 2024 losses. Underground bases hide drones and speedboats (Al Jazeera, March 2025), ready to choke Gulf shipping or sink U.S. Navy ships. Picture the Strait of Hormuz, carrying 20 percent of global oil, shut down—oil prices skyrocket, markets crash, dwarfing 1979's chaos. The U.S. would hit back with a "shock and awe" campaign—carriers, B-2s, bunker-busters—pulling in NATO allies like the UK and France, who've already censured Iran at the IAEA (E3 statement, March 2025). Iran could then lash out at Europe via proxies, maybe a bombing in Paris or London, dragging the West deeper in.

Allies and rivals wouldn't sit still. Russia, Iran's military buddy—supplying S-300s and hosting experts in 2024 (Reuters)—might up the ante, offering arms or mediation (Bloomberg, March 2025) to thwart U.S. dominance. China, hooked on Iranian oil, could bankroll Tehran or send ships, fearing a U.S.-controlled Middle East. Turkey, rivalling Iran in Syria, might join the U.S.-Israel camp, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE, anti-Iran hawks, risk internal revolts if war hits home.

Then there's the nuclear wildcard—if cornered, Iran might sprint for a bomb, doable in weeks (Atlantic Council, November 2024), abandoning its non-weapon stance. Israel, facing annihilation, could unleash its undeclared nukes, and a strike on Dimona could spew fallout across the region. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt might race for their own nukes, shattering non-proliferation and tempting Russia or China to flex their arsenals. Global nuclear war erupts.

Meanwhile, Snyder ties this to Ukraine's crumbling front—Trump's aid cuts leave Kyiv reeling as Russia encircles Kursk with North Korean troops in tow. A U.S. bogged down in Iran can't prop up Europe, letting Russia eye Kyiv or beyond—Medvedev's "caldron" boasts (March 2025) signal opportunism. NATO might fracture—Poland demands focus on Russia, France on Iran—while refugees flood Europe, stoking chaos like post-2015 Syria. Economically, it's a nightmare—oil shocks, trade halts (think Houthi Red Sea attacks), and war costs could tank the dollar's reserve status if allies doubt U.S. resolve. Casualties? Snyder quotes Bannon: Ukraine's million-plus dead, Gaza's toll, and Iran could add millions, especially if nuclear, making Dresden 1945 look tame.

This could tip into World War III—Snyder and Bannon see it as "kinetic" already, with Ukraine and Gaza outstripping WWII's early toll. An Iran war links Middle East and European theatres, like WWI's Balkan spark. A U.S. strike killing Russian advisors in Tehran, or a Chinese ship sunk in the Gulf, could pit superpowers—U.S., Russia, China—against each other, fuelled by high tensions. Proxies, missteps (a stray missile), or nuclear brinkmanship could suck in dozens of nations. Snyder's right that Iran's refusal and Trump's "very soon" deadline (Oval Office, March 2025) set a fuse—once lit, there's no rewind. Historically, wars balloon unexpectedly; Iran could be 2025's Sarajevo, turning a regional strike into a global abyss.