No Evidence of a Climate Change Emergency By James Reed
At the moment, the COP27 talkfest of the climate change elites is in motion, with the big thing from this year being climate change reparations, basically a wealth transfer from the West to the Third World, with de-industrialisation of the West, while communist China is given a free climate change pass, to produce as much carbon dioxide as it wants, and it already produces more than the West combined. That alone should give the entire game away. And, it is accepted as a given, that there is a climate emergency, justifying all this bs.
However, not all scientists are in the climate change cult, and a group of Italian scientists have found no evidence that weather extremes are occurring, even though present droughts and floods are conveniently blamed on climate change, rather than just being seasonal variations. Here is the important abstract from the paper. And note that those who are anti-science are just letting the globalists get away with destroying Western civilisation, as science now, as seen from Covid, is their political weapon. So now, even I read science as best I can, sometimes hurting my brain in the process, but it has to be done.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjp/s13360-021-02243-9
A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming
The European Physical Journal Plus volume 137, Article number: 112 (2022)
30 September 2022 Editor's Note: Readers are alerted that the conclusions reported in this manuscript are currently under dispute. The journal is investigating the issue.
Abstract
This article reviews recent bibliography on time series of some extreme weather events and related response indicators in order to understand whether an increase in intensity and/or frequency is detectable. The most robust global changes in climate extremes are found in yearly values of heatwaves (number of days, maximum duration and cumulated heat), while global trends in heatwave intensity are not significant. Daily precipitation intensity and extreme precipitation frequency are stationary in the main part of the weather stations. Trend analysis of the time series of tropical cyclones show a substantial temporal invariance and the same is true for tornadoes in the USA. At the same time, the impact of warming on surface wind speed remains unclear. The analysis is then extended to some global response indicators of extreme meteorological events, namely natural disasters, floods, droughts, ecosystem productivity and yields of the four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat). None of these response indicators show a clear positive trend of extreme events. In conclusion on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet. It would be nevertheless extremely important to define mitigation and adaptation strategies that take into account current trends.”
Notice the editorial note, that the paper is under dispute. I have never seen this in any pro-climate change piece, even if later refuted.
“An international study of major weather and extreme events has found no evidence of a “climate emergency” in the record to date.
The study by Italian scientists provides a long-term analysis of heat, drought, floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and ecosystem productivity and finds no clear positive trend of extreme events.
The authors do not say that no action should be taken on climate change but argue the issue should be placed in a bigger context.
“Fearing a climate emergency without this being supported by data, means altering the framework of priorities with negative effects that could prove deleterious to our ability to face the challenges of the future, squandering natural and human resources in an economically difficult context,” the report, published in European Physical Journal Plus, said.
The paper – “A critical assessment of extreme events trends in times of global warming” – found the most robust global changes in climate extremes are found in yearly values of heatwaves, but it said global trends in heatwave intensity were “not significant”.
Daily rainfall intensity and extreme precipitation frequency were stationary.
Tropical cyclones show a “substantial temporal invariance”, as do tornadoes.
The impact of warming on surface and wind speed remained unclear.
The team, led by Gianluca Alimonti from the Italian National Institute for Nuclear Physics and the University of Milan, extended the analysis to include natural disasters, floods, drought, ecosystem productivity and yields of the four main crops (maize, rice, soybean and wheat).
“None of these response indicators show a clear positive trend of extreme events,” the report said.
The authors said it was important to underline the difference between statistical evidence of excess of events, with given characteristic, and probabilistic calculation of anthropogenic attribution of extreme events. The statistical evidence is based on historical observations and tries to highlight differences between these and recent observations or possible trends as a function of time. “The anthropogenic versus natural attribution of the origin of a phenomenon is based on probabilistic models and makes reliance on simulations that hardly reproduce the macro and microphysical variables involved in it,” the researchers said.
“In conclusion, on the basis of observational data, the climate crisis that, according to many sources, we are experiencing today, is not evident yet.”
On floods, the report said: “Although evidence of an increase in total annual precipitation is observed on a global level, corresponding evidence for increases in flooding remains elusive and a long list of studies shows little or no evidence of increased flood magnitudes, with some studies finding more evidence of decreases than increases.”
The paper said there was “no evidence that the areas affected by the different types of drought are increasing”.
In conclusion, the findings do not mean we should do nothing about climate change. “We should work to minimise our impact on the planet and to minimise air and water pollution,” the authors said.
“Whether or not we manage to drastically curtail our carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades, we need to reduce our vulnerability to extreme weather and climate events.
“How the climate of the twenty-first century will play out is a topic of deep uncertainty. We need to increase our resiliency to whatever the future climate will present us.””
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