Mexico's Powder Keg: From Street Fury to State Failure, By Charles Taylor (Florida)

Lurking in the shadow of the National Palace, where Mexico's history of revolution and resilience is etched into every stone, a new storm brewed on November 15, 2025. Thousands of protesters, mostly young, fuelled by a viral manifesto from "Generation Z Mexico," marched on Mexico City's Zócalo, tearing down barricades like they were ripping off the scabs of decades-old wounds. Chants of "Out, Morena!" and "We are all Carlos Manzo!" echoed off the cathedral walls, as riot police unleashed tear gas and batons in response. By night's end, over 120 were injured, mostly officers, and 20 arrested. It wasn't just a riot; it was a scream from a generation that's watched their country bleed out to cartels while politicians preach "hugs, not bullets."

This wasn't spontaneous chaos. It was the spark from the assassination of Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo on November 1, a man gunned down mid-Day of the Dead celebration, seven bullets to the chest, in front of families and flickering marigold altars. Manzo, with his signature straw sombrero and unapologetic war cries against the narcos, had become a folk hero. He rewarded cops for killing cartel hitmen, deployed trusted squads to raid extortion rackets in Michoacán's avocado groves, and begged the federal government for backup that never came. His death, the seventh mayor slain in Michoacán since 2021, the sixth nationwide in 2025, ignited a fire that spread from Uruapan's streets to Guadalajara, Tijuana, and Oaxaca. Protesters waved pirate flags from One Piece, a global Gen Z symbol of rebellion against corrupt elders, and sombreros in tribute, demanding an end to the "narco-state" they say President Claudia Sheinbaum's Morena party has enabled.

The Rot at the Core: A Nation Hijacked by Shadow Empires

Mexico isn't failing, it's been failed, systematically, for 20 years. The "war on drugs" launched by Felipe Calderón in 2006 turned the country into a graveyard: over 400,000 dead, 100,000 disappeared, and cartels evolving from smugglers into insurgent armies. Today, they control a third of the territory, from Sinaloa's fentanyl labs to Michoacán's lime orchards, raking in 600 billion pesos ($30 billion USD) annually, more than Mexico's oil exports. They're not just traffickers; they're CEOs of terror: deploying drones laced with explosives, IEDs on rural roads, and Colombian mercenaries for wet work.

The cartel wars are a patchwork of blood feuds:

Sinaloa Civil War: Factions like Mayito Flaco's southern holdouts clash with Los Chapitos around Culiacán, now allied uneasily with the brutal Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG).

Gulf Cartel Fractures: Metros vs. Escorpión in Tamaulipas, a fragile truce masking daily ambushes.

CJNG's Multi-Front Onslaught: Battling in Michoacán against United Cartels and La Familia Michoacana, while skirmishing across six states from Chiapas to Zacatecas.

This isn't abstract violence, it's daily life. Extortion squeezes farmers until they flee "ghost towns"; migrants pay "mordidas" (bites) or die trying; and U.S. streets drown in the fentanyl that kills 80,000 Americans yearly, mostly from Mexican labs. Manzo's killing? A message: Dare to fight, and even public squares aren't safe.

Enter Sheinbaum, Mexico's first female president, sworn in October 2024 on the coattails of her mentor Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO). Her Morena party swept elections amid 37 candidate assassinations, the deadliest campaign in modern history. She promised continuity: social programs over shootouts, intelligence-sharing with the U.S., and a "Michoacán Plan for Peace" post-Manzo, deploying National Guard and $3 billion in tech and troops. Homicides dipped slightly under AMLO, and Sheinbaum boasts 70% approval. But critics call it optics: Cartels thrive on impunity, and her "no war on narcos" vow echoes AMLO's failed "hugs" philosophy, which critics say just hugged the problem tighter.

Protesters aren't buying it. "The government killed him," they chant, accusing Morena of cartel pacts. Sheinbaum fires back: The marches are "inorganic," funded by Right-wing foes and amplified by bots. X buzzes with Gen Z manifestos decrying abuse of power, but also with counter-narratives: Dancers filling the Zócalo the next day, proving Mexico's pulse still beats for stability. Turnout? Thousands, not millions, a cry, not a tsunami. Yet in a city of 23 million, even a whisper can echo like thunder.

The Gen Z Inferno: A Global Echo, or Mexico's Last Straw?

This isn't isolated, it's Gen Z's world on fire. From Nepal's prime minister toppled by TikTok bans to Peru's anti-corruption flares, youth wield pirate flags against elders who sold their futures. In Mexico, they're non-partisan firebrands: "Fed up with violence, corruption, and power abuse," their manifesto roars. But older allies, Manzo's "Sombrero Movement" widows and lime farmers, add grit, turning memes into marches.

The chaos exposes fractures: Economic despair in a nation where cartels out-earn governments, youth unemployment at 10%, and disappearances hitting 120,000. Protests hit Guadalajara too, 47 detained, 13 hurt, spreading like cartel turf wars. If it escalates, ghost towns could multiply; if it fizzles, cynicism deepens.

The Northern Shadow: Trump's Guns, Sheinbaum's Walls

Across the border, Donald Trump watches like a hawk eyeing prey. Fentanyl isn't Venezuelan cocaine, it's Mexican poison, fuelling 70% of U.S. overdoses. His administration's already sunk boats off Venezuela's coast and designated cartels as terrorists, unlocking military options. NBC reports detailed plans: U.S. troops and intel officers in Mexico, striking labs and leaders, training's underway, deployment's "not imminent" but real.

Sheinbaum's response? "It's not going to happen." Sovereignty first, no invasions, only intel swaps. She's cooperated on drones spotting fentanyl labs, extradited bosses, but draws the line at boots on soil. Trump, fresh off Venezuela strikes that killed 14 alleged traffickers (and irked Mexico), vows patience is thin. Without her nod, any raid's an act of war, pushing Mexico toward Russia and China, who already court her with arms and loans.

Whither Mexico? Revolution, Reckoning, or Ruin?

So, is collapse imminent? Not yet, but the cracks are canyons. Protests like these could fizzle into folklore, or snowball into a "Latino Spring," toppling Morena like Nepal's youth felled their PM. Sheinbaum's 70% approval buys time, but Manzo's ghost haunts her: Another assassination, another mayor's widow vowing revenge, and the streets could empty offices.

Trump's wildcard looms largest. If he greenlights unilateral strikes, drones today, SEALs tomorrow, expect backlash: Mass anti-U.S. rallies, cartel reprisals spiking migration, and bilateral ties in tatters. Sheinbaum might bend on joint ops, but force her hand, and watch alliances shift eastward.

Mexico's at a fork: Double down on "hugs" with real teeth, judicial reform, anti-corruption purges, or watch Gen Z's pirate flags become the new tricolor. The protesters tore down walls Saturday; now the question is, will the government build bridges, or just more barricades? One thing's clear: The narcos aren't the only ones fighting for turf anymore. The people are, and they're done whispering.

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/is-mexico-on-the-verge-of-collapse