Making Sense of the Conflicting Data By Brian Simpson

     The conservative, and Left mind too, does not cope well with masses of conflicting data, and hypotheses, let alone scientific uncertainty. We see this with climate change, where fanatics from the Left take a “it’s all proven approach,” which those from the Right must deny, by asserting exactly the opposite, when as matter of real science, almost everything is uncertain. Cosmological events could change the situation in seconds, whatever the reality is. Likewise, for Covid-19.

     We have a divide here even within the Dissent right, or freedom movement, with Natural championing the apocalypse view, and other sites going from a spectrum of positions right down to it is all a false flag. The problem we have is that all the models of the coronavirus infection were wrong:

“How is it possible that all of the coronavirus models could have been so completely and utterly wrong about what was going to happen? Very early in this pandemic, some models that were predicting millions of deaths caused quite a bit of panic all over the globe.  In fact, a projection done by researchers at the Imperial College of London warned that 40 million people could die from COVID-19 this year alone.  Obviously that estimate was dead wrong, and it has become quite clear that this pandemic is not an “end of the world” scenario. But on the other extreme, there have been a lot of models that were forecasting a relatively low death toll, and those models have been proven to be completely wrong as well. For example, the Los Angeles Times just published a story that discussed the fact that a number of models had projected that the U.S. would not reach 60,000 deaths until “late summer”… The death toll from COVID-19 reached nearly 60,200 in the United States on Wednesday, and confirmed cases surpassed 1 million, according to Johns Hopkins University. Some models had suggested the U.S. would not reach this milestone until late summer. Well, we just blew by that figure and we are rapidly moving up toward 70,000 deaths. During the 24 hour period that just ended, another 2,390 Americans died from COVID-19, and the number of daily deaths is likely to escalate as some states attempt to “reopen” in the weeks ahead. But a prominent model that the Trump administration has been relying on very heavily had been projecting that there would not be a single U.S. death from the coronavirus after June 21st…

An influential model cited by the White House predicts that coronavirus deaths will come to a halt this summer, with zero deaths projected in the United States after June 21. Not a single person will die in the ensuing month and a half, according to the model, which makes predictions until August. Obviously some U.S. officials must strongly disagree with that sort of a projection, because the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the federal government just ordered 100,000 more body bags… The federal government ordered 100,000 new Covid-19 body bags, in what officials described as preparations for a “worst case” scenario. The giant order last week for “human remains pouches” comes as more than 58,000 Americans have died from Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. That would seem to be a tremendous waste of money if this pandemic is essentially going to be over in June. Of course, the truth is that this pandemic is not going to end any time soon, and every day we continue to get more indications that it is going to be much more grisly than many had originally anticipated.  For instance, on Wednesday police in New York found dozens of dead bodies stored in trucks outside a funeral home…

Police found dozens of bodies being stored in unrefrigerated trucks outside a Brooklyn funeral home and lying on the facility’s floor Wednesday, law enforcement sources told The Post. Between 40 to 60 bodies were discovered either stacked up in U-Haul box trucks outside Andrew Cleckley Funeral Services in Flatlands or on the building’s floor, after neighbors reported a foul odor around the property, sources said. And the entire nation was stunned to learn that almost 70 people have died at a home for aging veterans in Massachusetts… Nearly 70 residents sickened with the coronavirus have died at a Massachusetts home for aging veterans, as state and federal officials try to figure out what went wrong in the deadliest known outbreak at a long-term care facility in the U.S. While the death toll at the state-run Holyoke Soldiers’ Home continues to climb, federal officials are investigating whether residents were denied proper medical care and the state’s top prosecutor is deciding whether to bring legal action. While it is true that this pandemic is not “the end of the world”, nobody out there should be attempting to claim that it is a “nothingburger” either.  Just check the carnage that authorities in Ecuador have been dealing with… Front line medics in one of Latin America’s coronavirus epicenters are lifting the lid on the daily horrors they face in an Ecuadoran city whose health system has collapsed. In one hospital in Guayaquil overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, staff have had to pile up bodies in bathrooms because the morgues are full, health workers say. In another, a medic told AFP that doctors have been forced to wrap up and store corpses to be able to reuse the beds they died on.”

     The problem is that too much faith is placed upon mathematical/epidemiological models, which as we have seen from the climate change debate, are only as good as the data fed into them. Nevertheless, the globalists are not concerned about truth, in an abstract sense, and work with whatever is available to push ever onwards towards their end goal.

“The downplaying of the economic danger in particular, the lies all over the web about N95 masks not working, the claims that buying food and supplies is “panic behavior” akin to hoarding, a few months ago everything seemed designed to convince the public to NOT prepare for this event. And it was not just China and the WHO behind it; it was also our own government, the White House and the mainstream media. Now, there is still ample debate about how deadly Covid-19 really is. Is it really “no worse than the flu”? I have seen data which suggests that there are many more infected people than initially believed which would diminish the death rate. I have also seen data which suggests that deaths from the virus are being under-reported, just like they were in China. I say it is foolish to rush to conclusions until the virus actually runs the same course and infects hundreds of millions of people as the flu does annually. I will also say that I have never heard of hospitals and morgues being overwhelmed by the flu in modern times like they have been overwhelmed by the coronavirus, but this debate is a distraction from the real issue – It DOES NOT MATTER how deadly the virus is, what matters is that the current government response is unacceptable regardless. The false dichotomy being constructed right now is that you either believe the virus is a horrible killer plague and that martial law is necessary to stop it, or, you believe the entire pandemic is somehow “staged” and that the whole thing is a hoax, making martial law unnecessary. The truth is more likely somewhere in-between. The virus is a moderate threat, it is most likely a chimera with SARS-like qualities, it is indeed killing many people but it is certainly not the Black Plague (a friend of mine just lost someone in their mid-40's with no previous conditions; it is still smart to take precautions), and even if it was it would not matter because government tyranny and economic lockdown do not solve the problem, they only make the situation much worse.” 

“Epidemiological “models” have provided the scientific basis for this large-scale abrogation of personal and economic liberty. Now that the models have been shown to be grossly inaccurate, some are demanding accountability. In a recent op-ed, Georgia congressman Jody Hice wrote:

“Public health experts, scientists, and government officials all warned that millions would die unless strict measures were put in place… So, we willingly took unprecedented steps to save the most vulnerable among us, even at the cost of wreaking unparalleled economic damage. The experts said it was necessary, that the coronavirus was especially deadly, and our medical systems were in danger of being overwhelmed… Now, weeks into the pandemic, the dire outcomes foretold by experts have failed to come to pass. The models used to justify the closure of society have been shown to be wildly inaccurate… We need to examine why the models failed us, why their creators have been so far off the mark, and why these projections were used to justify policies that have resulted in unparalleled economic disruption.” It is worth having that discussion. In retrospect, and despite their air of authority, the experts never had enough knowledge about this virus to make reliable calculations about the future. But the real problem with the models weren’t that they proved to be false, but rather that they were promoted with false certitude. “I confess that I prefer true but imperfect knowledge,” economist Friedrich Hayek once said, “to a pretense of exact knowledge that is likely to be false.” Hayek’s remark, given as he was accepting the Nobel Prize in 1974, was that thinking of economics as a “science” might lead to “a pretense of knowledge,” the idea that any one person might know enough to engineer society successfully, unmindful of unintended consequences.

But Hayek went on to note that his reasoning applied to the physical sciences as well:

“There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, ‘dizzy with success’… to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will. The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men’s fatal striving to control society--a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.” These observations, made over 40 years ago, look prescient today.”

     We have simply put too much faith in the technocrats and scientists. At present, in this time of uncertainly it is a wise bet to avoid either/or dichotomies on the coronavirus issue, and recognise that the scientific debates will go on until the cows come home. Meanwhile the globalists have sold the entire milk industry to China!



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Sunday, 23 June 2024

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