Lowering the Nuclear Attack Threshold, By Richard Miller (Somewhere in Europe)

 The Ukraine is pressing the United States to use long-rang missiles to attack deep within Russia. Vlad Putin has said that if there was an existential threat to Russia, then nuclear weapons would be used. This "existential threat" has been very broadly defined as including "the end of Russia's statehood." And a defeat in the Ukraine war would mean that, as Putin has said: "It means the end of the 1,000-year history of the Russian state. I think this is clear to everyone… Isn't it better to go all the way, until the end?" At present Russia is revising its doctrine regarding the use of nuclear weapons, lowering even further the threshold for use. This is speculated to embrace a first strike initiative, for the Russians accept that the side which strikes first has the best chance of winning.

As for Mutually Assured Destruction, it is argued below that Russia's nuclear arms far surpass the US. It is quite possible that prodding the bear will at some point lead to a test of this. And the world will never be the same again.

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/the-russians-are-about-to-lower-their

"If you are determined to push a bear into a corner, you better know what you are doing. Right now, Ukraine is begging the Biden administration to allow it to use long-range missiles provided by the United States to strike targets deep inside of Russia. Since the Ukrainians have eventually gotten just about everything else that they have wanted from us, they will probably get approval for this at some point too. So how do you think the Russians would respond if missiles that are provided by the United States start falling in their major cities and killing innocent civilians? Do you think that the Russians may consider us to be responsible?

Right now, the Russians are reviewing their rules for using nuclear weapons, and it is expected that they will "lower the threshold for their use"…

World War 3 fears have exploded with Vladimir Putin set to change Russia's doctrine for nuclear weapons that could see him lower the threshold for their use.

Russia's nuclear weapons policy, devised in 2020, says that Moscow can use their weapons if they are attacked by an enemy or the existence of the state of Russia comes under threat.

Needless to say, this would bring us even closer to nuclear war.

Once the first nuke is used, it is just a matter of time before there is a full-blown exchange between the United States and Russia.

According to Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, the work to update the rules for using nuclear weapons has reached "an advanced stage"…

Putin said in June the doctrine was a 'living instrument' that could change depending on world events, and now Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov appears to have confirmed that work on a new document outlining adjustments is underway.

'The work is at an advanced stage, and there is a clear direction to make adjustments, which are also conditioned by the study and analysis of the experience of conflict development in recent years,' Ryabkov said in comments carried by Russia's TASS news service yesterday.

'This includes everything related to the escalation course of our Western opponents in connection with the "special military operation".'

This certainly doesn't mean that a nuclear war is imminent.

But we are heading in that direction.

Vladimir Putin has made it very clear that if the Russians believe there is an existential threat to "Russia's statehood", they will strike…

Putin meanwhile, has warned that defeat for Russia would mean "the end of Russia's statehood" – possibly a subtle justification for the use of nuclear weapons.

He added: "It means the end of the 1,000-year history of the Russian state. I think this is clear to everyone… Isn't it better to go all the way, until the end?"

As I have documented repeatedly, the Russians very clearly understand that whoever strikes first will have the best chance of surviving a nuclear war if one becomes inevitable.

In recent years, the Russians have been feverishly preparing to fight a nuclear war. The Sarmat is the most advanced intercontinental ballistic missile in the world by a very wide margin, and it is now on combat duty…

Vladimir Putin today put the world's most powerful Armageddon nuclear rocket dubbed Satan-2 on combat duty.

The 'unstoppable' 15,880mph intercontinental missile system, known to Russians as Sarmat, is the size of a 14-storey tower block.

The announcement came from Yury Borisov, head of the Russian Space Agency.

'The Sarmat strategic complex has been put on combat duty,' he told students at an educational event.

A single Sarmat missile can carry enough firepower to wipe out an area the size of Texas.

And we don't have anything that can stop it…

The U.S.' Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation said that 'despite decades of research, development, and testing, there remains no reliably effective anti-missile system to counter intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)'.

Existing missile defence systems, such as the U.S. Patriot system, can target incoming short-, medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles whose threat is localised to one region, but cannot effectively protect against nuclear-capable ICBMs such as the Sarmat that can deploy warheads across vast areas.

Meanwhile, the core of the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal is made up of hopelessly outdated Minuteman missiles that first went into service in the 1970s.

If we were to fire those missiles at Russia, we would be praying that they could get past the most advanced anti-missile systems on the entire planet.

In particular, the brand new S-500 anti-missile system that the Russians have developed was specifically designed "for intercepting and destroying intercontinental ballistic missiles".

Most people in the western world still assume that we are protected by the magical doctrine of "mutually assured destruction".

But are you sure that doctrine still applies in an environment where the balance of power has shifted so dramatically?

Our leaders seem quite confident that the Russians will never use nuclear weapons, and so they are allowing the Ukrainians to provoke them in all sorts of ways.

For example, the Ukrainians are now actually using large drones to drop thermite on Russian soldiers.

Much more importantly, the Ukrainians desperately want permission to use long-range U.S. missiles to strike targets deep inside of Russia…

Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov has revealed to CNN that the Zelensky government has presented a list of significant targets which lie deep inside Russia to the Biden White House for approval to strike.

His words in the new CNN interview come as Kiev is engaged in intensive lobbying with Washington to get President Biden to greenlight the use of US missiles for longer range attacks. Ukraine has also been begging to receive long-rage missiles toward that end.

This is literally insane.

Of course the Ukrainians have already been using drones to strike targets that are very far from the front lines…

Ukraine especially wants all current restrictions on ATACMS systems' range and use to be lifted. It argues this is crucial for protecting Ukrainian civilians.

At this point in the war, Ukraine has been sending weekly and near daily drone strikes against Russia, targeting especially oil depots and energy facilities. Several more have been reported struck and damaged on Sunday, including sites in the Moscow region.

So far, the Russians have shown a great deal of restraint.

But one of these days the Ukrainians could push the Russians a bit too far.

If the Russians use even a single tactical nuke against Ukraine, NATO will get directly involved in the conflict.

And that would put us literally one step away from nuclear war.

This is a far bigger story than most people realize. Unfortunately, most of us are still in a deep state of sleep as our leaders continue to drag us toward a point of no return."