Japan and the Face of Extinction, By Mrs. Vera West
I have been covering the birth dearth problem, the collapse of births in both the West and East Asia. A recent item that hit the press in the present news cycle, reported on when exactly the nation of Japan becomes extinct. That is exactly like the last Tasmanian Aboriginals, Truganini (1812-18760, and Fanny Cochrane Smith (1834-1903). Actually the model by Japanese professor, Hiroshi Yoshida, is just an abstraction as a predicted population crash like that would not lead to a last man or woman by attrition, but rather after a point, a society's infrastructure would collapse, and people would not be able to sustain life.
However it is still instructive to see the demographics, which makes clear the real existential threat of the birth dearth, as Musk recognises: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/elon-musk-reacts-to-projection-of-drastic-population-decline-in-india-china-7420578?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3utrNIJFwe2mzA_LT2XfDqyWkcL4zDlvSvZhJdO0-9KgLwwNaW59jIfgU_aem_7Ut_gPbh1JMGtgyYsod_EA
"A Japanese professor has predicted the year Japan will become extinct if the country doesn't grapple with its rapidly ageing population.
The year is 2720 and away from science-fiction fantasies of flying cars, robots and intergalactic travel to far away stars one Tokyo academic has made a damning projection.
Hiroshi Yoshida, a professor at Tohoku University's Research Centre for Aged Economy and Society, claims that after centuries of population decline Japan will be left with just one child under the age of 14 by 2720.
Mr Yoshida has run demographic simulations since 2012 and his latest finding is that, on his current projection, his home will likely cease to exist 695 years from now, according to The Times.
Shocking data, released by Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, prompted Mr Yoshida to bring his estimate forward by 100 years after it revealed a steep drop of 2.3 per cent in the number of children.
The number of births in Japan has steadily declined since the 1970s until in 2005 the number of deaths overtook births.
In 2022 there were almost one million more deaths than births in Japan and the percentage of people over 65 currently stand at 29.9 per cent of the population - that is an increase of 24.1 per cent since 1960.
Mr Yoshida told Japanese media the country's long term recession means that young people cannot get married or have children due to low income.
He said: 'Unless the decline in the number of births stops, the hand of the "clock" will go back.
'Japan may become the first country to become extinct due to a low birthrate. We should create an environment where women and the elderly can work, and aim for a society where everyone is actively involved.'
Japanese politicians have been attempting to find solutions to the country's demographic crisis with some policymakers warning it only has until 2030 to reverse the trend.
Rather than extinction, the more immediate threat to Japan is problems that arise from having more elderly people to take care but less younger people in the workforce.
To tackle this Newsweek reported that Japan is planning to relax its tough immigration policies to allow more foreign workers to enter the country.
The government hopes to triple the number of workers from abroad by 2040.
It is also planning to hand out more cash incentives with 5.3 trillion yen (or £27 billion) earmarked to help couples start families.
Officials hope that if couples see more cash in their wallets they might be more willing to have children."
Comments