Itching Ever Closer to Nuclear War, By James Reed
There are two news items (as below), that are disturbing so far as the slide to nuclear war is concerned. First, although this should not be surprising, a computer simulation Princeton University's Science and Global Security lab in New Jersey, found that the use of a low-yield tactical nuclear weapon used by Russia leads to escalation, and ultimately an all-out nuclear war. The projected numbers of casualties across both Russia and the West are around 90 million. The number od deaths will depend upon what remains of hospital resources after the nuclear exchange, but could be in the tens of millions, or higher. That too does not consider that deaths may lead to nuclear power plants not being maintained and going into meltdown.
That scenario is based upon a domino effect where one nuclear missile is fired. And that is precisely the thing now being advocated by Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. The idea he is pushing to Putin is to fire on, "teach-em-a-lesson nuke": "To confirm the seriousness of Russia's intentions and to convince our opponents of Moscow's readiness to escalate, it is worth considering a demonstrative (i.e. non-combat) nuclear explosion." But this could well lead to nuclear war.
https://www.irishstar.com/news/us-news/russia-nato-nuclear-war-simulation-32848560
"A chilling simulation has revealed that a single 'nuclear warning shot' could result in over 90 million casualties across Russia, the US, and other NATO countries. The simulation, known as 'Plan A', was developed by researchers at Princeton University's Science and Global Security lab in New Jersey. It was published in September 2019 amidst escalating tensions between Russia, the US, and NATO allies, illustrating a potential conflict scenario between these powers.
The study aimed to show how the deployment of low-yield or "tactical" nuclear weapons could rapidly escalate into a full-blown nuclear war. The project's website states: "This project is motivated by the need to highlight the potentially catastrophic consequences of current US and Russian nuclear war plans."
It further warns: "The risk of nuclear war has increased dramatically in the past two years as the United States and Russia have abandoned long-standing nuclear arms control treaties, started to develop new kinds of nuclear weapons, and expanded the circumstances in which they might use nuclear weapons," reports the Mirror US.
The chilling four-minute audio-visual simulation "is based on independent assessments of current US and Russian force postures, nuclear war plans, and nuclear weapons targets", according to the website. It kicks off with a scenario where conventional warfare has escalated into nuclear conflict after Russia fires a nuclear "warning shot" from a base near Kaliningrad in an attempt to halt NATO's advance.
NATO retaliates with a single tactical nuclear air strike. This act breaches the nuclear threshold, leading to an all-out tactical nuclear war in Europe. In this grim forecast, Russia deploys 300 nuclear warheads through aircraft and short-range missiles targeting NATO bases and troops on the move. In response, NATO launches approximately 180 tactical nuclear weapons at Russia using aircraft.
The simulation predicts a staggering 2.6 million casualties within just three hours. According to the simulation, Russia's tactical nukes would devastate much of Europe, prompting NATO to initiate a strategic nuclear onslaught of 600 warheads. This counterattack would involve warheads launched from US land-based missiles and submarines.
In response to the long-range capabilities of strategic nuclear weapons, Russia reportedly launches missiles from silos, mobile launchers and submarines. It's estimated that this 45-minute period of combat would result in approximately 3.4 million casualties."
https://www.themirror.com/news/us-news/singular-nuclear-warning-shot-ww3-490691
"A senior member of a Russian think tank whose ideas sometimes become government policy has suggested Moscow consider a "demonstrative" nuclear explosion to cow the West into refusing to allow Ukraine to use its arms against targets inside Russia.
The proposal, opens new tab, by Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, was issued a day after President Vladimir Putin warned the West that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Kyiv use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, something he said could trigger a global conflict.
Ukraine's leadership says it needs to be able to strike Russian forces and military targets inside Russia with long-range Western missiles to be able to defend itself and prevent air, missile and drone attacks, a view which has found some support among some Western countries but not yet with Washington.
Russia, which possesses the world's largest nuclear arsenal, has warned it would view such a step as a grave escalation that would pull NATO and the countries concerned into a direct conflict with Moscow, increasing the risk of nuclear war.
Suslov, a member of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, a think tank praised by Putin who has said the authorities sometimes pick up its policy ideas, said Russia needed to act to dissuade the West from crossing a red line.
"To confirm the seriousness of Russia's intentions and to convince our opponents of Moscow's readiness to escalate, it is worth considering a demonstrative (i.e. non-combat) nuclear explosion," Suslov wrote in business magazine Profil."
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