Will China Finally Sink Under the Waves of Debt? By Peter Ewer
While James Reed is hoping that China may continue on the best of the West, I for one, have my doubts, and I pretty much have doubts about everything. For one thing, at long last, China is running head-first into a great wall of debt:
“China's debt has been a key factor to its economic success in riding out the GFC, due to a large government stimulus injected into its economy. However, the financial boost has mostly led to China having one of the highest corporate debts in the world, only second to the Special Administrative Region of Hong Kong. The past year has been a tumultuous one for the Chinese market: it was hit by an economic downturn, and for the first time in two years, exports unexpectedly plunged to its lowest point, all of this against the backdrop of an ongoing trade dispute and punishing tariffs by the US. Beijing made moves to solve its issues by slashing central bank reserves earlier this month — the fifth time within a year — freeing up $US116 billion ($161.3 billion) to stimulate more economic growth. But forecasted figures by a number of global financial institutions are not looking too positive for the global superpower, and adding to the debt fears is an opaqueness and inability for analysts to completely obtain information and understand the full extent or impact of the potential looming problem.”
But, we should not laugh, and dance for joy, since the entire planet is drowning in debt:
“The world’s debt currently exceeds $86,000 per person on average, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The US, China, and Japan are the top three global borrowers, accounting for more than half of the global debt. The IMF has calculated that their share of debt exceeds that of output. It stated that the emergence of China among the top ranking is, however, a relatively new development. Since the beginning of the millennium, China’s share in global debt surged from less than three percent to over 15 percent, underscoring the rapid credit surge in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. According to the IMF, global debt has reached a record high of $184 trillion in nominal terms. That’s the equivalent of 225 percent of the world GDP in 2017. The debt figure is $2 trillion higher than the estimated number released by the fund in October, because it includes the debts of several countries who had not previously reported their updated data.”
This is, of course, a completely unsustainable level of debt, and it cannot even in principle be paid back. So, this is a good jumping point for social creditors to ask: how can this situation exist of the whole world being in debt, and to whom are they in debt to, Martians?