Australia-China Ties, Doomed: Great News! By James Reed
So, the Australia-China relationship is doomed? That is primarily about trade, and as will be detailed below, even with Biden at the lead, there is still the inevitability of war, when Taiwan is demolished, also inevitable.
“The hostile relationship between Australia and China appears to be damaged beyond repair, a researcher and academic has declared.
According to a recent analysis piece by Beijing Foreign Studies University’s Australian Studies Centre assistant professor Diane Hu, the incoming Biden presidency may reset America’s relationship with the Asian superpower, but will do little for bilateral ties with Australia.
In fact, things might get worse.
“The strategic and security aspect of bilateral relations between China and Australia will tend to grow more contentious,” Hu said.
This will be further exacerbated if Biden creates a new alliance of ‘US allies and partners’ – and it would be nearly impossible for Australia not to take part in this group, she said.
Ever since Canberra led the call for an independent WHO inquiry into the origins of COVID-19, Beijing has taken increasingly aggressive actions against Australian trade exports in recent months, imposing tariffs on wine and barley as well as restricting coal, lobsters, timber, red meat, and cotton.
While optimistic pundits have pointed out that China is importing more Australian iron ore than ever, Hu notes that investment in other aspects of Australia have dwindled.
“Chinese investment in Australia has continued to shrink for three consecutive years, lower than the last ebb in bilateral relations around 2010, and almost down to the 2007 level when capital inflow from China just started to be substantial.”
Lack of trust is at the heart of the matter, she said.
“Australia does not trust China and has amplified this by taking administrative decisions and proactive legislation to that end while loudly publicising them.
“But the issue is that Australia expects the trade relationship to be ‘business as usual’.”
Differences between the two nations have been widening since 2017, and the chasm has grown wider as Canberra demonstrates itself to be increasingly willing to speak out against the superpower, the Beijing expert added.
“Australia that has grown more and more assertive and outspoken about what it believes,” she said.
“With both sides unlikely to back down in any of the above areas and shrinking policy space among megaphone diplomacy and unwise messaging, it is getting increasingly unrealistic to imagine a reset in China-Australia relations for the near future.”
That is trade, but there is also the kinetic aspect too:
“The United States would be prepared to militarily defend Taiwan from Chinese attack which could potentially drag Australia into a war, newly declassified White House documents reveal.
The documents show outgoing President Donald Trump's national security advisers were in favour of standing by the First Island Chain in East Asia.
The documents, obtained by the ABC's 7.30 program, reveal the US would be prepared to deploy its military for the purpose of 'defending the First Island Chain nations, including Taiwan'.
While the US has had a one-China policy since 1979 when it established diplomatic relations with the Communist power, it regards Taiwan as a beacon of democracy.
The fall of autonomous Taiwan to authoritarian Chinese rule would see the island state's advanced semi-conductor industry controlled by a nation intent on replacing the US as the world's biggest military and economic power.
The document explains how the US would have a defence strategy based on 'denying China sustained air and sea dominance inside the "First Island Chain" in a conflict'.
The documents, signed off by President Trump's former national security adviser H.R. McMaster in 2018, state the US would work with democratic nations, including Australia, whose biggest trading partner is China.
'Align our Indo-Pacific strategy with those of Australia, India and Japan,' it said.
The declassified documents are being released on Wednesday, 30 years earlier than usual, and follow comments from Australian Liberal senator Jim Molan, a former Army major-general, predicting a war between the US and China within a decade that would most likely involve Australia.”
Beijing Biden may let China chew up Taiwan, but then China will work its way down the list, and Australia is on that list. That should be our number one survival cause.