How Close to World War III are We? By James Reed

In recent developments, the geopolitical landscape of Europe has become increasingly precarious, with tensions escalating to levels reminiscent of a prelude to large-scale conflict. A confluence of strategic military movements, high-stakes diplomatic negotiations, and shifting alliances has created a volatile environment that could potentially lead to an all-out war in Europe.

One significant factor contributing to this heightened state of alert is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The Russian invasion, which commenced in 2022, has not only destabilized the region but also strained relations between Russia and NATO member countries. Latvia's security service has recently issued a stark warning: should the war in Ukraine reach a stalemate, it could provide Russia with the opportunity to rebuild its military capabilities. This resurgence could pose a direct threat to NATO and European nations within a five-year timeframe. The Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) emphasizes that while Russia's current resources are depleted due to the protracted conflict, a frozen war would allow Moscow to fortify its military presence along NATO's northeastern borders, including the Baltic states.

Compounding these concerns are the recent diplomatic engagements between the United States and Russia. High-level talks held in Riyadh have sparked apprehension among European leaders and Ukrainian officials. The crux of the unease lies in the potential for the U.S. to negotiate a settlement that aligns with Russian interests, potentially compromising Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been vocal about his country's exclusion from these critical discussions, asserting that any agreements made without Ukraine's direct involvement are unacceptable. European diplomats share this sentiment, expressing fears that such negotiations might embolden Russia's strategic ambitions in the region.

In response to these developments, European leaders convened an emergency summit in Paris to deliberate on the continent's security posture and its support for Ukraine. The discussions underscored the necessity for Europe to assume a more assertive role in its defense strategy, especially in the light of the United States' apparent shift in focus towards other global arenas. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen articulated the need for "peace through strength," advocating for increased defense expenditures and enhanced military cooperation among European nations. However, the summit also highlighted internal divisions, with debates centring on the potential deployment of European troops to Ukraine and the complexities of transatlantic relations.

The convergence of these factors paints a concerning picture. The possibility of a frozen conflict in Ukraine serving as a catalyst for Russian military rejuvenation, coupled with diplomatic negotiations that may sideline European and Ukrainian interests, has created a precarious situation. As Michael Snyder writes on the China-Taiwan situation:

"U.S. relations with China just took another turn for the worse…

China accused the United States on Monday of a "serious regression" in its position on Taiwan, after the State Department updated the Taiwan section of its website to remove a reference to the independence of the Beijing-claimed island.

The State Department fact sheet on U.S.-Taiwan relations continues to state Washington's opposition to any unilateral changes to the status quo from either China or Taiwan, a self-ruling democracy that rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims. But the phrase "we do not support Taiwan independence" appears to have been removed Thursday in what the State Department says was a routine update.

The change was cheered by Taiwan, while China said it "sends a wrong signal to the Taiwan independence forces" and urged the U.S. to "immediately correct this mistake."

We are far closer to war with China than most people realize.

A trade war between our two nations has already erupted, we are headed for a showdown with China over control of the Panama Canal, and the Chinese have been preparing for the day when they will invade Taiwan.

But the most imminent threat of all-out war is in the Middle East.

The Trump administration and the Israeli government are in full agreement that Iran's push for nuclear weapons must end.

Earlier this month, President Trump indicated that making a deal would be preferable to "bombing the hell" out of Iran…

US President Donald Trump said he would prefer to make a deal with Iran rather than "bombing the hell out of it," in a media interview published Saturday, adding that Israel would not carry out a strike if there were an agreement.

"I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it," he told the New York Post aboard Air Force One on Friday. "They don't want to die. Nobody wants to die."

"If we made the deal, Israel wouldn't bomb them," he predicted, though he also said he would not discuss potential negotiations with Tehran.

The Trump administration has decided to impose "maximum economic pressure" on Iran in a last-ditch attempt to force the Iranians to make a deal.

But it won't work.

The Iranians have no intention of making a deal.

So it won't be too long before the Trump administration and the Israelis are faced with a decision. Either they will choose to allow Iran to build nukes, or they will choose the "bombing the hell out of it" option."

https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/we-are-closer-to-all-out-war-in-europe