How Bad Could the India-Pakistan War Get? By James Reed

On May 7, 2025, India launched missile strikes across Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, a bold move that's got everyone on edge. This wasn't just a skirmish, it's a serious escalation between two countries armed with nuclear weapons. The strikes, part of what India called Operation Sindoor, hit nine spots they claimed were "terrorist camps" in places like Muridke, Muzaffarabad, and Bahawalpur. India said the attacks were surgical, targeting only the hideouts of militants behind a brutal April 22 attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, where 26 people, mostly Hindu tourists, were killed. The Indian Embassy in Washington swore up and down that they only hit terror bases, not civilians. But when has that claim ever held up cleanly in war?

Pakistan tells a different story. They say India's missiles killed at least eight people, including a 16-year-old girl, and injured 35 others. Their military reported explosions rocking multiple sites, with civilian casualties piling up. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the strikes "cowardly" and promised Pakistan would hit back hard, saying they won't let India get away with it. War's messy, and this is no exception.

The spark for this mess was the Pahalgam attack, which a group called the Resistance Front (TRF) took credit for. India says TRF is just a front for Pakistan's Lashkar-e-Taiba, and they've pinned the whole thing on Islamabad. Pakistan denies it, as always. Since April 22, both sides have been trading blows, kicking out diplomats, shutting down borders and airspace, and scrapping old agreements. India pulled the plug on the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, and Pakistan ditched the 1972 Simla Agreement. Along the Line of Control (LoC), gunfire's been popping off for days. Both countries flexed their muscles with missile tests before the May 7 strikes, India showed off its naval firepower, while Pakistan fired its Abdali and Fatah missiles.

So, How Bad Could This Get?

This fight could go south fast, mostly because both India and Pakistan have nukes and a long history of bad blood over Kashmir.

On one hand, there's reason to think this won't spiral into all-out war. We've seen this movie before, take the 2019 Balakot strikes after the Pulwama attack. Both sides threw punches, but cooler heads prevailed, thanks to global pressure and the fact that nobody wants a nuclear mess. Some experts think this is just another round of "managed hostility" India and Pakistan letting off steam to keep their people happy without crossing the line. The U.S., China, the UN, and even Iran are begging both sides to calm down. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's been on the phone with leaders in both countries, pushing for talks and teamwork against terrorism. China, Pakistan's buddy, says a war would wreck the region. The UN's preaching "maximum restraint," and Iran's offering to play peacemaker. That kind of diplomatic heat might keep things from boiling over.

Money's another factor. Pakistan's economy is hanging by a thread, leaning on a $7 billion IMF bailout that could fall apart if this drags on. Moody's is already waving red flags about Pakistan's finances. India's in better shape but still doesn't want to burn cash on a long war. Both have reasons to keep this short. Plus, India's got a bigger army and deeper pockets, which might make Pakistan think twice about going all-in. They'd likely stick to small-scale retaliation and lean on their nukes to keep India in check.

But here's where it gets dicey. Nukes change everything. Pakistan's got a "first-strike" policy and smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to counter India's stronger conventional forces. Their railway minister, Hanif Abbasi, just reminded everyone their missiles are aimed at India. One wrong move, like a strike that feels like a death blow, could send this spiralling toward disaster. Even a small war could get out of hand fast, experts say.

Then there's politics. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's under fire from hardline media and politicians demanding blood for Pahalgam. He's been talking tough, vowing to "punish every terrorist and their backers." Over in Pakistan, the government's got to look strong, especially after India's strikes killed civilians. That kind of pressure can push leaders into corners they can't back out of.

The collapse of old agreements makes things worse. India scrapping the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan ditching the Simla Agreement tears up the rules that have kept things semi-stable since 1971. India's been accused of playing dirty with water flows—releasing water from the Uri Dam or shutting down the Baglihar Dam, which Pakistan's calling an "act of war." That's not just missiles; it's a whole new level of stakes.

Pakistan's promising to hit back for the May 7 strikes, and history says they'll try to match India's move, maybe with their own missile or airstrikes. They've even threatened to fire three missiles for every one India sends. Problem is, India doesn't have obvious "terrorist" targets for Pakistan to hit, so they might go for military bases instead. That's a big step up the escalation ladder.

The worst-case scenario? A nuclear war. It's not likely, but it's not impossible. Pakistan's betting on its tactical nukes, and India's got a strategy called Cold Start for quick, deep strikes. If either side misreads the other's moves in the heat of battle, things could go catastrophic. One slip, and we're talking unthinkable consequences.

Right now, this looks like a dangerous but limited fight. Both sides will probably trade a few more blows, some missiles, maybe airstrikes, to save face at home. Global pressure, tight budgets, and the fear of nukes should keep it from turning into a full-blown war, like it did in 2019. But don't get too comfortable. The political heat, broken agreements, and those nuclear arsenals mean one mistake could set off a chain reaction. The world's watching, and the U.S. and China especially need to keep pushing for calm. If they don't, this could be the one that goes too far.