Gone, is the Aussie Dream of Home Ownership, Thanks to Mass Immigration! By James Reed

The Australian dream of homeownership—a cornerstone of the nation's cultural identity—has long been associated with the idea of a fair go: work hard, save up, and you can own a home to raise a family in. However, this dream is increasingly out of reach for many Australians, and a significant factor driving this crisis is mass migration. The ABC News article from March 18, 2025, titled "Australians Need Six-Figure Income to Afford Average Rental, Report Finds,"

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-18/six-figure-salary-rental-affordability-australia-high-income/105064814?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR09wwEjidWM-yBM7vnjL1UKHFspsdZWXo5SybicKf5vv52Uauv-fWM8wQ8_aem_f0c05DtBSJXZ44rKh5Htqg

highlights the dire state of housing affordability, with renters now needing to earn at least $130,000 a year to comfortably afford the national weekly asking rent for a typical unit. While the article focuses on rental affordability, the underlying pressures also make homeownership a distant prospect for most. I'll argue that mass migration has exacerbated this housing crisis, effectively blowing away the Australian dream of homeownership, and that the government's failure to address this issue head-on is a betrayal of its own citizens.

The ABC article underscores the severity of the housing affordability crisis in Australia. A single person needs an annual income of $130,000—well above the average full-time salary of around $94,000 as reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics in 2024—to afford renting a typical unit without spending more than 30 percent of their income on housing. If renting is this unattainable, buying a home is even further out of reach. According to CoreLogic data, the median house price in Australia's capital cities was $1.1 million as of early 2025, requiring a deposit of at least $220,000 (20 percent) and an income far exceeding $200,000 to service a mortgage without financial stress. For the average Australian worker, saving for a deposit while paying sky-high rent is a Sisyphean task.

This crisis isn't just about numbers; it's about the erosion of a cultural promise. Homeownership has historically been a marker of stability and success in Australia, with rates peaking at over 70 percent in the 1960s. Today, that figure has fallen to around 65 percent, with younger generations—particularly Millennials and Gen Z—bearing the brunt. The 2021 Intergenerational Report from the Australian Treasury projected that homeownership rates for younger cohorts will continue to decline unless significant policy changes are made. The dream of owning a home, once a tangible goal, is now a privilege reserved for the wealthy or those with generational wealth to lean on.

While multiple factors contribute to the housing crisis—such as zoning restrictions, construction costs, and speculative investment—mass migration stands out as a primary driver of demand that has outstripped supply. Australia's population has grown rapidly due to record-high migration levels, with net overseas migration reaching 548,800 in the year ending September 2023, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. More recent estimates suggest migration levels have continued to hover around 600,000 per year, far outpacing natural population growth (births minus deaths), which is around 100,000 annually.

This influx has a direct impact on housing demand. A 2023 study by the Reserve Bank of Australia found that a 1 percent increase in population leads to a 2.5 percent increase in house prices over the long term, as demand for housing outpaces the supply of new dwellings. Australia builds approximately 170,000 homes per year, according to the Housing Industry Association, but with migration at 600,000 annually, plus natural population growth, the total population increase is around 700,000 people per year. Using a conservative estimate of 2.5 people per household (based on ABS data), this population growth creates demand for roughly 280,000 new homes annually—far more than the 170,000 being built. The shortfall of over 100,000 homes each year drives up both house prices and rents, as supply simply cannot keep up.

The ABC article doesn't directly address migration, but the rental affordability crisis it describes is a symptom of this broader demand pressure. High migration levels mean more people competing for a limited pool of housing, pushing rents and house prices to levels that exclude most Australians from the market. Posts on social media echo this sentiment, with users pointing out that mass migration has "thrown fuel on an already out-of-control fire" by driving demand while supply lags. Recent migrants are less likely to be employed in home building, meaning the current migration intake adds more to demand than to the capacity to build new homes.

Successive Australian governments, both Labor and Liberal, have prioritised high migration levels to prop up economic growth, often at the expense of housing affordability. Migration is seen as a quick fix to boost GDP, fill labour shortages, and support an aging population, which it fails to do, but this comes at a significant cost to ordinary Australians. The 2023-24 federal budget projected net overseas migration to remain above 400,000 annually through 2027, despite the housing crisis reaching unprecedented levels. This policy choice reflects a broader neoliberal agenda that favours short-term economic metrics over the long-term well-being of citizens.

The government's failure to align migration levels with housing supply is a betrayal of the Australian dream. If 170,000 homes are built each year, but 280,000 are needed to accommodate population growth, the shortfall accumulates year after year, creating a compounding crisis. Governments have also been slow to address supply-side issues, such as restrictive zoning laws and lengthy approval processes for new developments. While initiatives like the National Housing Accord aim to build 1.2 million new homes over five years from 2024, this target still falls short of the demand driven by current migration levels, and implementation has been sluggish.

Moreover, the reliance on migration to drive economic growth ignores the distributional impacts. High-income migrants may be able to compete in the housing market, snapping up properties in desirable areas, but this leaves average Australians—those earning $60,000 to $90,000 a year—locked out. The ABC article's finding that even six-figure earners struggle to afford rent underscores how far the crisis has spread, but for the majority of Australians earning less, the situation is even more dire. The dream of homeownership is being sacrificed to maintain a migration-driven economic model that benefits corporations and the wealthy while leaving everyday citizens behind.

The erosion of the Australian dream of homeownership has far-reaching consequences beyond economics. Homeownership has traditionally been a source of security and community stability, allowing families to put down roots and invest in their neighbourhoods. As this dream slips away, younger Australians are forced into a cycle of renting, often in precarious or overcrowded conditions, with little prospect of building equity or long-term stability. This fuels inequality, as those who can afford to buy (often with parental support) continue to build wealth through rising property values, while renters are left with nothing to show for their payments.

The social fabric is also strained. Posts on social media highlight growing resentment toward migration, with some users righty blaming "unprecedented levels of migration" for the housing crisis and accusing the government of prioritising "cashed-up immigrants" over struggling Australians. The Australian dream was built on the idea of fairness and opportunity for all, but mass migration—without corresponding investment in housing—has turned that dream into a source of frustration and alienation.

One might argue that migration isn't the sole cause of the housing crisis, and that factors like foreign investment, speculative buying, and restrictive zoning laws also play a role. While these are valid contributors, they don't negate the impact of migration. Foreign investment and speculation often amplify demand in specific markets (like Sydney and Melbourne), but the sheer volume of population growth driven by migration creates a baseline pressure that affects the entire country. Zoning laws and construction bottlenecks are supply-side issues that the government has failed to address, but they wouldn't be as severe if demand weren't so artificially inflated by migration levels that outstrip housing capacity.

Another counterargument is that migration is necessary for economic growth and to address labor shortages, particularly in sectors like healthcare and construction. However, this ignores the reality that the current migration intake isn't effectively addressing these shortages. Recent migrants are less likely to work in home building, meaning they contribute more to housing demand than to supply. Moreover, economic growth that comes at the expense of housing affordability is a hollow victory for the average Australian. Per capita GDP—a better measure of individual prosperity—has been stagnant or declining in recent years, as population growth outpaces economic output. The benefits of migration-driven growth are unevenly distributed, while the costs, like unaffordable housing, are borne by all.

To restore the Australian dream of homeownership, the government must take decisive action to address the housing crisis, starting with migration policy. Reducing net overseas migration to a sustainable level—closer to 140,000 per year, or much less, as recommended by some economists—would ease pressure on housing demand, giving supply a chance to catch up. This doesn't mean closing the borders, but rather aligning migration with the country's capacity to provide infrastructure, including housing, for its residents.

On the supply side, the government must fast-track housing construction by reforming zoning laws, incentivising local councils to approve new developments, and investing in public housing to provide affordable options for low- and middle-income earners. The Florida Policy Project 2025 Housing Summit, as reported by floridapolitics.com, offers potential strategies like up zoning and accessory dwelling units (e.g., "mother-in-law suites") that could be adapted to the Australian context to increase housing density and affordability.

Finally, the government should prioritise the needs of Australian citizens over short-term economic gains. This means redirecting resources away from migration-driven growth and toward policies that support homeownership, such as tax incentives for first-home buyers, caps on rent increases, and measures to curb speculative investment in residential property.

The Australian dream of homeownership can be reclaimed, but only if the government acknowledges the role of mass migration in fuelling the crisis and takes bold steps to address it.