Forget about Renewables; It’s Over for Them! By James Reed
Energy experts, such as Professor Vaclav Smil, have concluded that there is not going to be any sort of energy transition to a "green" renewable energy economy, at least in the short term. According to Professor Smil, the world has become more, not less, dependent upon fossil fuels. Apart from the use of fossil fuels in manufacturing numerous chemicals and plastics, most other industrial activities are highly fossil-fuel dependent: "Transport continues to rely on oil products for nearly 91% of its final energy, down only 3.5 percentage points from the early 1970s. Despite popular belief that electric vehicles will become the norm in the near future, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects electricity to provide only 11 percent of global transport power by 2050 in its stated policies scenario. Oil will still account for 78 percent of transport fuel in two-and-a-half decades.
Global fossil fuel consumption increased 45 percent since 2000. Its share of total consumption has decreased marginally with more wind and solar installations, but fossil fuels still accounted for 86 percent of primary energy consumption in 2022. While wind and solar capacity have doubled in the last five years, these account for only 2.0 percent of world energy consumption. All renewables together—including solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, and biofuels— make up only 7% of global energy use."
This share of the world's energy use by renewables, given their well-known limitations, is not likely to change in the future. Certainly, both China and India, despite lip-service to the West's mad climate change ideology, are pushing their industrialism ahead with growing uses of fossil fuels, and mountains of coal to feed coal powered stations. Australia, by not following suit, is digging its industrial grave, thanks to the Left.
"There is no energy transition, no paradigm shift or green revolution. Acknowledging this stark reality sooner rather than later will allow us to focus on devising strategies for managing the consequences of climate change, and the deteriorating state of earth's biosphere.
This week, energy expert Vaclav Smil provided a valuable perspective.
"Contrary to common impressions, there has been no absolute worldwide decarbonization. In fact, the very opposite is the case. The world has become much more reliant on fossil carbon.
"We have not made the slightest progress…We cannot expect the world economy to become carbon-free by 2050. The goal may be desirable, but it remains unrealistic.
The news, however, is full of outlandish claims that the world can depend mostly on wind and solar power, and that all other energy needs—from airplanes to steel production—can be met by green hydrogen or nuclear fusion. These assertions are more aspirational than real. Steel, concrete, plastic, and fertilizer are essential to modern civilization, yet we currently lack methods to produce them on a large scale without relying on fossil fuels.
Transport continues to rely on oil products for nearly 91% of its final energy, down only 3.5 percentage points from the early 1970s. Despite popular belief that electric vehicles will become the norm in the near future, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects electricity to provide only 11 percent of global transport power by 2050 in its stated policies scenario. Oil will still account for 78 percent of transport fuel in two-and-a-half decades.
Global fossil fuel consumption increased 45 percent since 2000. Its share of total consumption has decreased marginally with more wind and solar installations but fossil fuels still accounted for 86 percent of primary energy consumption in 2022. While wind and solar capacity have doubled in the last five years, these account for only 2.0 percent of world energy consumption. All renewables together—including solar, wind, nuclear, hydro, and biofuels— make up only 7% of global energy use.
It's time to be honest about this reality and stop imagining some improbable renewable future that cannot be remotely supported by historical data trends. Despite advanced economies pouring approximately $10 trillion into the "renewable energy transition," there has been no significant evidence of progress in reducing carbon emissions or lowering global temperatures. Estimated capital costs for the transition to a net-zero economy are approximately $275 trillion between 2021 and 2050. This would require average annual spending on physical assets of around $9.2 trillion, or roughly 20 percent of GDP for advanced economies.
The idea that we're undergoing an energy transition lacks compelling evidence. Historical data on world energy consumption from 1800 reveals an additive rather than a subtractive pattern. This means that new energy sources are layered on top of old ones, rather than replacing them.
Today, both biomass and coal consumption exceed their 1800 levels, with renewable energy sources like wind and solar barely making a statistical impact. This underlines that, despite the investment in renewables, they are just a small addition to our ongoing conventional energy usage.
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