Europe at a Crossroads: Why the Ukraine War Could Haunt the Continent for Years, By Richard Miller (Londonistan)

Professor John J. Mearsheimer, a leading voice in international relations, has painted a bleak picture for Europe in a recent address to the European Parliament. According to Mearsheimer, the Ukraine war is not an isolated crisis, it is the latest manifestation of a deeper structural problem: the end of unipolarity and the rise of a multipolar world.

For over two decades after the Cold War, Europe enjoyed unprecedented stability. The collapse of the Soviet Union left the United States as the sole global superpower, providing a "pacifying" military presence through NATO that kept tensions low and helped the European Union thrive. But that unipolar moment ended around 2017, when China and Russia emerged as great powers, reshaping global power dynamics.

The Shift from Unipolarity to Multipolarity

Mearsheimer emphasises that U.S. dominance in Europe was not just about military might, it was about deterrence. NATO acted as a stabiliser, preventing conflicts between European states. Today, the U.S. faces new strategic priorities. China's rise in East Asia demands American attention, while the deep U.S.–Israel relationship draws resources to the Middle East. As a result, Europe is increasingly asked to take responsibility for its own security, a transition that comes at a risky moment.

The core problem, according to Mearsheimer, is that the West provoked Russia by pushing Ukraine toward NATO membership. Russian leaders viewed NATO expansion as an existential threat, and their fears were hardly secret. Western officials, including Germany's Angela Merkel, France's Sarkozy, and U.S. diplomats, understood that moving Ukraine closer to NATO risked confrontation, but NATO and U.S. policy continued regardless.

Why the Ukraine War Was "Preventable"

Mearsheimer argues that while Russia initiated the invasion, the underlying cause was Western action. Russia did not intend to conquer all of Ukraine; its military lacked the capacity, and negotiations were underway early in the conflict. Instead, the war reflects Moscow's desire to prevent Ukraine from becoming a Western military and political bulwark. In short, the war is less about Russian imperial ambition and more about strategic insecurity triggered by NATO expansion.

The Human and Strategic Costs

The war has devastated Ukraine. Estimates suggest up to a million casualties and massive economic destruction. Large swaths of territory are under Russian control, while the Western-backed remainder faces an uncertain future. Europe itself is paying a heavy price: energy shortages, economic slowdown, and a security dilemma that could persist for decades. NATO, which has been central to European stability, risks reputational and operational damage, while the U.S. may continue pivoting away from Europe toward Asia.

The Long-Term Outlook

Mearsheimer predicts a Europe less stable than it was in 2017. Relations with Russia will remain tense, and the continent may confront multiple flashpoints, from the Arctic to the Baltic Sea and beyond. Even after active fighting in Ukraine ends, frozen conflicts could endure, leaving Europe perpetually on edge. The war also threatens to weaken trans-Atlantic ties, as European countries face the dual challenge of defending themselves while navigating a U.S. increasingly focused on other regions.

Lessons for Europe

The key takeaway from Mearsheimer's analysis is that strategic miscalculations have long-lasting consequences. NATO expansion, combined with misreading Russia's security concerns, set the stage for a conflict that will haunt Europe for years. If European leaders hope to preserve stability, they will need to rethink security arrangements, invest in defence capabilities, and find ways to manage relations with a resurgent Russia and a rising China, all while keeping energy and economic resilience in mind.

In short, Europe's future is at a crossroads. The Ukraine war is both a symptom and a cause of instability, a reminder that the end of unipolarity brings new responsibilities, and new dangers. How European leaders respond in the coming years may determine whether the continent remains secure or drifts toward a prolonged period of strategic uncertainty.

https://www.theamericanconservative.com/mearsheimer-europes-bleak-future/