Covid and Probability Blind Spots By Brian Simpson

Here is interesting material that takes a probabilistic look at the Covid freak-out, arguing that fundamental statistics and probability has been ignored in the frantic move to lockdown, then vaccinate the entire human race. At each stage, the probabilities have been ignored. For example, the analysis below shows that the probability of death in the below 49 years age group is not statistically significant, relative to other common diseases like the flu. It is a bit different for the elderly and those with various illnesses. Japan strove to protect them, rather than shutdown the entire society in panic. But of course, there is a bigger agenda of social control here that is not covered in the article, but a great job nonetheless.

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/06/the_damage_done_by_probability_blindness.html

“As Bishop Joseph Butler said in 1736, "probability is the very guide of life."

The coronavirus has generated more blind fear than perhaps any other event in recorded history.  That fear is blind because it ignores easily calculated probabilities.

The reported coronavirus deaths in the U.S. now stand at six hundred thousand.  The population of the U.S. is approximately 330 million.  When you divide deaths by the population, the number is less than two-tenths of one percent.  As catastrophes go, that is a relatively small number.

There is a wide disparity of coronavirus deaths among age groups.  That fact has been deliberately ignored by the authorities and the media.

Eighty percent of all deaths have occurred in the over 65 population even though that age group constitutes only 16 percent of the total population.  The number of deaths in that group is 464 thousand.  The total population of Americans 65 and older is 51 million.  Dividing the deaths by that population gives you a probability of 0.0089, or nine-tenths of one percent.

The number of COVID deaths in the 49 and younger age group is twenty-seven thousand.  The total number of Americans in that age group is 233 million.  Again, dividing the deaths by the corresponding population gives you a probability of 0.00011, or one one-hundredth of one percent.  A probability that small is often described as "not significantly different from zero."

Comparing the young and old age groups reveals that the 49 and younger age group's risk of COVID death is ninety times less than the 65 and older age groups.

There has been virtually no difference in policies in regard to various age groups.  It has been the costliest application of a "one size fits all" approach ever.

There would have been far fewer deaths and much less disruption of our lives if the bulk of the attention had been focused on the over 65 age group.  Rest homes should have been quarantined.  Schools should never have been closed.  Masks were unnecessary for anyone 50 or younger. 

If health officials and the media had acted responsibly, they would have informed the public about these probabilities.  They haven't even tried because their objective has been to raise anxiety, not reduce it.

Politicians and public health officials have a very low estimate of the intelligence of the general public and an extremely high (and unjustified) estimate of their own intelligence.  They believe their deliberate concealment of facts is admirable.

We know far more now about the coronavirus than when it began, and what we know is very encouraging.  Telling the public the truth, however, would expose health officials and the media for the politics behind their incompetence.  They would have to admit that most of the pain and damage they've created has been totally unnecessary.”

It goes beyond incompetent health officials and the technocrats though, for most scientists and technocrats are libtard globalists, and saw the plandemic as a way of destroying the presidency of Trump. The deeper plan by the Democrats was not to merely attack credibility, but to allow mail-in voting, which permitted massive electoral fraud, so great that even old man Trump seems to have now thrown in the towel and is bowing to God Emperor, Biden the Senile of Beijing.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2021-06-17-lindsey-graham-lancet-letter-scientists-politics-trump.html

“Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina denounced the scientists who signed a letter published in the medical journal The Lancet back in Feb. 2020 claiming the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) naturally jumped from animals to humans. He said this was a “political document” put out to destroy the credibility of former President Donald Trump.

The president argued in favor of the theory that the virus was engineered at one of the labs in the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), where it accidentally infected an employee and leaked into the general populace.

The letter in The Lancet was signed by 27 public health experts who described the lab leak origin theory as “rumors” and “misinformation.”

“We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin,” the scientists wrote. “Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumors and prejudice that jeopardize our global collaboration in the fight against this virus.”

Letter helped Trump lose 2020 election

During an appearance on Fox News, Graham, speaking with Sean Hannity, said The Lancet‘s letter and the media’s reaction to it strongly influenced the election. He suggested that it had something to do with Trump losing.

“This is the Russia dossier all over again. This stinks to high heaven. This is lab-gate, China-gate, call it whatever you want to call it,” said Graham. “In other words, 27 scientists signed a political document shaming [Sen. Tom Cotton] and Trump and anyone else, shutting them up. The media took it and ran, and it changed the course of the election.”

Graham suggested that the extensive ties the scientists had to the WIV prompted the writing and publication of the letter. “They were covering their a–,” he said. “They put out a letter not based on science, but a political document trying to destroy the credibility of people who suggested it came out of a lab.”

The senator added that, if The Lancet had not published the letter, Trump’s image during the height of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 would not have been tarnished. The lab leak origin theory would not have been severely discredited and Trump would have become one of the leading voices advocating to hold China responsible.

“More importantly, if it came out of the lab in China, he was right it was the China virus, and the 2020 election would have been about who could hold China accountable, Trump or Biden.”

Graham added that, if it could have been proven early on that the coronavirus was an engineered virus that accidentally leaked out of a lab, “the public would want revenge against China.” If that was the situation, the case to re-elect Trump would have been much stronger.

“Who would they turn to, Biden or Trump?” said Graham. “Who would you want in the room to hold China accountable for infecting the world with coronavirus? … If it were known in February [2020] that Trump was right, I think he’d be president today.”

I seriously doubt whiter this is true, since the extent of electoral fraud was so great that it could not have been overcome. That Trump has allowed the crooks to get away with the crime of the century, makes him part of the criminal enterprise.