Contemplating Famine? By Brian Simpson
Snyder argues that the ongoing U.S.-Iran war (with strikes causing shipping paralysis in the Strait of Hormuz) creates an imminent global famine risk by choking off nitrogen fertilizer supplies. He claims roughly one-fourth of globally traded nitrogen fertilizer (primarily urea) transits the Strait, and prolonged disruption could slash crop yields worldwide since about half of global food production relies on synthetic fertilizers (via the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process, which uses natural gas). Without adequate fertilizer for 2026 planting season, yields drop sharply, food prices surge in the West, and "horrifying famine" hits poorer nations, potentially killing large numbers. Direct quote: "If the war with Iran persists for an extended period of time, a lot of people could literally starve." He stresses this is "literally could not be worse" timing for farmers, with prices already surging (e.g., urea up $60–$80/ton in key markets, natural gas futures spiking 35–76%).
The title's "one-fourth of all the corn and soybeans" claim appears in the linked/related context but isn't central here — the fertilizer piece dominates. Snyder ties it to broader vulnerabilities: the Strait handles ~20% of global oil/LNG, with 200+ ships stranded, Qatar declaring force majeure on LNG (impacting Asia heavily), and no quick resolution amid escalating conflict.
Key Data Points Cited
Fertilizer transit: ~25% of global traded nitrogen fertilizer (55–60 million metric tons urea annually) via Hormuz; 40–50% from Middle East (Qatar/Iran ~5M tonnes urea/year, UAE/Saudi ~2M each).
Global consumption: ~180 million metric tons nitrogen fertilizers/year.
Food dependency: ~50% of world food production depends on fertilizers.
Shipping impact: Unprecedented vessel damage/paralysis; "contract collapse" via force majeure.
No direct corn/soy stats in the fertilizer-focused output, but the title suggests overlap with U.S. Midwest concentration risks (e.g., Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska produce massive shares of U.S. corn/soy, which is ~30–40% of global corn and ~35% of soybeans in recent years per USDA trends).
Conclusions and Warnings
Snyder warns of a "major crisis" underreported by media: prolonged war = fertilizer shortages → lower 2026 yields → global production decline → famine/deaths in vulnerable regions. He frames it as unprecedented ("we have literally never seen anything like this"). He ends with promotional calls: subscribe to his Substack, buy his books (e.g., 10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next), and spiritual advice (accept Jesus, citing John 3:16), which is good stuff indeed.
Broader Context and Assessment
The core vulnerability is real: The Strait of Hormuz is a chokepoint for Middle East fertilizer (Qatar is a top urea exporter), and disruptions (e.g., from conflict) could spike prices and delay shipments, especially with natural gas volatility. Global food systems are fertilizer-dependent, and 2026 planting faces tight timing.
However, the "famine incoming" alarm is hyperbolic and speculative:
Fertilizer stockpiles, alternative routes/suppliers (e.g., Russia, U.S., China production), and substitution exist.
USDA 2025/26 data shows strong U.S. corn (~16–17B bushels record in 2025, projections ~15.8B for 2026) and soybean output; global corn ~1.3B tons, soybeans ~428M tons — U.S. share significant (~30–35% corn, ~25–30% soy) but not "one-fourth of world" in the fertilizer piece.
Midwest drought concerns exist (e.g., 70–75% of U.S. in drought per early 2026 monitors, subsoil moisture low), potentially compounding issues, but forecasts suggest possible March rain relief — no confirmed 2026 crop collapse.
Past disruptions (e.g., 2022 Ukraine war fertilizer spikes) caused price surges but not mass famine.
In short, Snyder amplifies a legitimate supply-chain risk into an apocalyptic scenario, blending geopolitics, agriculture, and prophecy. While fertilizer/shipping vulnerabilities warrant monitoring amid Iran conflict, evidence doesn't support imminent global famine — more likely higher prices and regional strains if disruptions persist.
https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/famine-incoming-about-one-fourth
